YTD Record:
Overall: 14-10, +21.10 units
UFC: 10-9, +13.35 units
WEC: 1-1, +1.65 units
Strikeforce: 3-0, +6.1 units
Final 2009 Record: 80-82-1, +23.75 Units
As I had expected, I did not have the greatest UFC 109 day, going 2-5 but loosing only 1+ units, as I hit my big plays on Serra and Thiago, while loosing all of my degenerate action.
I have been salivating over this UFC 110 card for awhile now. As I said in my UFC 109 forum, I had atleast one 10 unit/star play for this card. I might actually have two!!!
For those of you who have been following me for awhile now, you will know that it is very rare that I release a 10 unit/star play. Last year, I went 2-2 for plus money, cashing in on two nice dogs when Dan Hardy cashed against Marcus Davis and Vitor Belfort destroyed Rich Franklin. My two lossess, both awful plays in hindsight, were Rashad Evans vs Machida, and Rumble Johnson vs Kos.
I have bounced hitting my first two 10 star plays, with my parlay of Kampmann over Volkmann and Dos Santos over Yvel at UFC 108, and Amir Sadollah over Blackburn at UFN 20.
For UFC 110, my first of potentially two 10 star/unit plays is:
1. Ryan Bader (-150) over Keith "The Not So Dean of Mean" Jardine. Risking 10 units to win 6.7 units.
I have decided to lock in on this one know. I see lines anywhere from -145 to -155 depending on the book, and I believe this line will continue to rise as the week moves on.
Jardine has lost 4 of his last 6 fights, and other than his loss against Rampage, has not really looked all that great. He has also been knocked out in 3 of those 4 losses. That does not bold well fighting someone with the power of Bader. Although Bader looked shacky at times against Eric Schafer last time out, he did weather the storm and came from behind to win the fight. At this point in time, I think Schafer will prove to have been a more challenging fight than Jardine will be. Although Jardine's takedown defence is solid, I feel that Bader can and will take this fight to the ground if the opportunity presents itself. He will not stand there and let Jardine kick him to death. If not, I have a lot of confidence in Bader's striking game, and see him knocking Jardine out at some point in this fight. I really love Bader's agressiveness in the cage, which is one "must" criteria when deciding whether a fight falls into my 10 star category.
I will be back the rest of the plays as the week progresses.