MaineRoad's Blog

Week Four

By MaineRoad | View all Posts
Posted Monday, September 21, 2009 03:01 PM   16 comments
6-3-1 brings it to a stellar 11-11-1 for the year.   Hitting the Washington ML (small; I'm a wuss) got me back to down one unit overall on the season.  Given how things have gone, though, I'll have to be happy with that.
 
I generally try and post ten plays, but that's really going to be a struggle this week.  Lines looked sharp at open, and I can't say many plays have jumped out in the ensuing 18 hours.  Maybe it will be a week to play a bunch of totals, as there are several games that seem to scream OVER, if we can get manageable numbers.  Let's see if we can't crawl over .500:
 
New Mexico -9.5 vs. New Mexico State - it would take a court order to keep me from betting against the Aggies; and, yes, I know New Mexico is horrendous.  Will look at the under here too. 
 
Texas Tech +1.5 at Houston - boy, UH is sure getting a lot of credit for beating a profoundly disappointing OKST team; probably a split crowd game, and Tech is better at chucking it all over the place than Houston is.
 
Miami University of Ohio +9 at Kent - Kent can't be 10 points better than anyone.
 
Memphis -3 vs. Marshall - Memphis should be better than the Herd, and these CUSU middle-of-the-roaders typically take care of other CUSU middle-of-the-roaders at home.
 
Auburn -31 vs. Ball State - just looks like they're having fun down on the Plains this year; saw both teams on Saturday, and Ball doesn't seem likely either to exploit the Tigers' flaws, or slow the Tigers down.
 
Boston College +3 (hook) vs. Wake Forest - it's just the sort of game BC always wins, usually in spite of itself, and lord knows in spite of its QB play.
 
Oregon State +1.5 vs Arizona - really?  is Arizona better than Oregon State? in Corvallis?  really?  I'm so confused by this line that I'm a little afraid of it.
 
BYU -14 (hook) vs. Colorado State - blowing out Nevada doesn't really impress me; BYU is well coached, and should put last week's humilation behind them with a nice conference blow-out.
 
Cincinnati -15.5 vs. Fresno State - time for the Bulldgos to mail one in, a subject on which they pretty much wrote the book.  I slept on this line, though, and that's cost me a couple of times this year already.
 
East Carolina -9.5 vs. Central Florida - can't say much good about the Pirates' offense so far, but there's really no reason they shouldn't be better; UCF has probably over-achieved a little already.
 
Phew.  That was hard work.  GL.  This week looks like a slog to me.
16 comments
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bracks says:
09/21/09 03:25PM
With you on TT brother, but I am just waiting for another Backup College showing of their false 2-1 record now. Clemson should have won by more if it wasn't in a monsoon. Only 8 pts vs. a "Real team" not N'eastern or Kent. WF might not be Clem on D, but, they could hold Stan to 17, I doubt the Iggles get that here.

 

GL this week Maine

tsw says:
09/21/09 03:26PM
TT may work for me.  Need to see which way the public goes on that one to be sure.

 

BYU is a possibility.

 

May be time to fade Auburn and Cincy as big favorites.

mmac66 says:
09/21/09 03:27PM
I am also on the NMSU fade train.....that team is just awful. As bad a D-1 football team as I've seen in a few years. That said New Mexico is not good. I'll be on the Lobos but I'll be very nervous   I can't imagine not fading the Aggies at anything less than two touchdowns and against competition with a pulse that number will jump considerably.

 

I'm on Cincy as well for the reasons you mentioned. The Oregon State line is a little peculiar, to say the least. I'll probably be on the Beavers by the end of the week.


GL this week Maine.

Boom_Boom says:
09/21/09 04:32PM
Gl Buddy.... Go easy with BC.... They are Complete Garbage... I was at the game last week and our DL Owned this offense. Now, we do have a good DL...But BC made it look better than it really is.
jimmymo says:
09/21/09 04:39PM
Good stuff Maine....leaning your way on 4 of them (Miami, OSU, Auburn and ECU)...no leans/plays against....good sign for me..lol

 

Best of luck...will be in Vegas this weekend going deep into the jack daniels....

 

MaineRoad says:
09/21/09 04:56PM

Like I said, I was really stretching for plays, and BC may be the lamest of the bunch.  That said, the seem to find ways to win games like this every year. 

MaineRoad says:
09/21/09 05:03PM

This is just a horrendous spot for Fresno - off of a heartbreaker on the road and its game-of-the-season at home.  Cincy has a lay-up with Miami U and then two weeks off, so if they come out ready here, they sail into mid-October undefeated.

Auburn may be ready to slow down, and they hit the SEC next week.  Might be a good week to lay off.

MaineRoad says:
09/21/09 05:06PM

I agree with all of that.  I watched NMSU on Saturday, and it was almost painful.  They would truly be like the 8th best team in the CAA, a 1-AA conference (Richmond, Villanova, UMass, Delaware, JMU, New Hampshire, William and Mary). 

MaineRoad says:
09/21/09 05:08PM

What's Tiger High going to do with TCU?    I think the Frogs would probably win this in Fort Worth or a neutral site, but have a feeling CU get's 'em at Memorial Stadium.

MaineRoad says:
09/21/09 05:13PM

Congrats on the Dogs.  I think I speak for a lot of LSU fans (and I saw many on the Seattle newspaper chats) when I say we're closet UDub fans now.  I was rooting for them like I went there.  Have fun in Vegas.  Don't do anything to get yourself disbarred.

j-walk says:
09/21/09 05:18PM
That Oregon State line  wow, the only thing I can think of is I read Rodgers looked a little banged up vs. Cinncy on Saturday, but I really have no idea.  Arizona pulled their starting QB last week so I assume that position is an issue for them right now and they also annouced that their returning all-american TE is out for the year.  I dont care if this is a setup, Im all over OSU.
nostradamus12 says:
09/21/09 07:50PM
agree Houston getting a lot of mileage from OSU game, liking the TT quite a bit and Auburn and some others, would like to pull the trigger on NM BOL maine
MDnightFlight says:
09/21/09 09:22PM
MIAMI OH 

 KENT 
adam071 says:
09/21/09 09:42PM
Like OSU, Auburn, Cincy, and Memphis.  No real leans on the others.  Good luck this week Maine
WahooS says:
09/21/09 10:40PM
best of luck bro, I'm starting to feel strange about laying over a touchdown with ECU, I'm awaiting some information from a friend of mine and I see that line is now a solid 10 everywhere, I may be dropping that one from the arsenal, not sure yet
MaineRoad says:
09/22/09 10:59AM
Thanks guys.   Not loving this week, and keep talking myself in an out of plays.  I really like Memphis, Oregon State, Texas Tech and BYU.  I'll probably play UNM and Miami as well, but it's always fun playing two of the five worst teams in D-1 in the same week.  I'm have similar fears as Wahoos regarding ECU, who might only score 20.  Auburn and Cincy are in crappy spots, though I think Fresno's in even a crappier one.  That looks like 44-21 from where I'm sitting.  Back door is probably going to be open at Auburn, and 41-13 doesn't get it done.   I'll leave BC alone. 

 

On other games, I'm pretty sure Buffalo is better than Temple, so that +3 is pretty attractive.  I'm not crazy about UB having flown to Texas, back to Buffalo, then down to Florida and now to Philly in the first four weeks, though.  Should be close.

 

I'd also like to take MSU at Wisky, but I'm fairly certain Wisconsin will find some ridiculous, bogus way to win and cover.  They must have made some deal with the devil. 

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