MasterLockLine's Blog
Posted Thursday, August 20, 2009 05:10 PM
Indianapolis had a disastrous game against Minnesota last week at the point of attack. QB Peyton Manning was sacked three times in six plays. Counting the backups, the Colts allowed six sacks in 37 offensive snaps. Now they face on the most aggressive blitzing teams. TE Dallas Clark, who missed the opener, is probable.
New Eagles QB Michael Vick will not travel with the team. Pro Bowl running back Brian Westbrook is also out as it second string QB Kevin Kolb, LG Too Herremans, DE Trent Cole, CB Sheldon Brown, LB Omar Gaither and the brothers Stacy and Shawn Andrews. Philadelphia will have just one regular starter on the offensive line in this game, C Jamaal Jackson. A total of seven regulars are out for the Eagles.
Philadelphia is expected to play their starters for at least a half. The Colts of course will remain with their best defensive player Bob Sanders. Backup QB Jim Sorgi remains out. The Colts are also without starters K Adam Vinatieri, DB Raheem Brock, CB Kelvin Hayden, and DE Robert Mathis.
Starting QB Peyton Manning is actually campaigning for more playing time than he got in the preseason opener. Head coach Jim Caldwell said the starters will get about 20 plays this week.
The Cincinnati Bengals play at th... [More]
Posted Sunday, March 09, 2008 04:40 PM
As we approach the homestretch in the NBA, we celebrate that it’s a very profitable time for sharp players. This is in no small part because the oddsmakers adjust to false public perception. Betting urban legends are quite popular this time of the year.
As is the case in every sport, it’s the time of the season that Joeybagofdonuts looks at the playoff races and simply goes with the “team that needs it more”. Sharp players meanwhile will collect big time going with true spoilers against teams in must-win situations.
First off all let us define the terms. A “true spoiler” is an organization that has no chance of making the playoffs and whose biggest wins henceforth can only be raining on somebody else’s parade. “We are not talking about a top level team playing spoiler against the No. 9 team in the conference” emphasizes Curt Thomas, lead NBA handicapper of GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com
Likewise a “must win” applies “only to teams fighting for a playoff spot, not those simply jockeying for homecourt advantage,” adds Thomas.
Remember, bad teams have players fighting for their jobs in many cases. Fear is a great motivator and the desire to extend a seven-figure-a-year career can invigorate a player more than the thought of extending the season.
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Posted Sunday, March 09, 2008 04:30 PM
Amongst our permanent clients at OffshoreInsiders.com, the single most common question we get revolves around the position of “That system you been using is great, but doesn’t it seem like the parameters should point to the opposite pick?” So often our systems would be the converse to “conventional logic”. In gambling, acknowledging that “conventional logic” is almost always an oxymoron will put one on the right path to winning. Thus going against the grain is more times than not a stupendous line of attack.
As a for instance, many of our systems involve bad offenses going over, good and hot teams being go against and bad and cold teams being ATS goldmines. There are two huge rationales why this is the case.
The first answer is in the “should it not be the opposite?” line of non-thinking. Lines are made very much to adjust to public perception. Handicapping can be loosely defined as the art of finding the undervalued and overvalued teams. The teams at the top of the standings, even if they are a Cinderella team won’t fly under the radar too long. The public fears betting bottom feeders. As we discussed in our article “It is Good to Pick Bad” we synthesize the science of handicapping public perception.
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Posted Friday, March 07, 2008 09:57 PM
As we approach the final week of the college basketball regular season, which includes the major conference tournaments, it’s time to remind you of one of the great pitfalls gamblers make. That is to bet on the team that needs a win more.
Combine this with the public’s infatuation with betting on the better team, some of the best investment opportunities are forthcoming in the early days of March Madness betting simply by fading bubble teams.
Why are they great go-against teams for the sharp player? The previously stated motive is one of them. The linesmakers know that gamblers accept as true that the bubble teams will be more motivated. Thus, bettors are ready and willing to lay extra points.
But the fact is, if a team is on “the bubble” they haven’t been victorious often enough in such “must win” games. The squads that excel in pressure games have their NCAA at-large bid locked up by this time of the year.
The most opportune situation is when a bubble team is matched up against a squad in a pure spoiler role. Let’s clarify the relatively objective definitions. Not that we really need it, but the cheat-sheet we utilize for which teams qualify as “bubble” would be Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology on ESPN.com.
Lunardi essentially has 12 bubbl... [More]
Posted Sunday, February 24, 2008 10:27 PM
Bulletin Board Material
There is some value to handicapping the intangible of so-called “bulletin board material”. That is one team with a player calling out the other team. However sometimes it can benefit the trash talking team, other times a detriment. There is a certain physiological warfare and we find a veteran player questioning the big game capabilities of a key young player on another team is does rather a player when things are going well.
Ironically the other extreme is that a well disciplined team can also be flustered. The famed guarantees of Mark Messier, Joe Namath, and Jimmy Johnson are examples of the consistent and superior teams being taken off their single-mindedness.
One of the best assertions I’ve heard is from someone who believes handicapping the effects of such can have great value in football. He believes practice preparation is much underrated—we do too as we’ve previously spoken of what great precursors “great week” or “poor week” of practices are. He believes “bulletin board material” increases focus and determination during the week more than having a direct affect after kickoff.
Contrary to popular belief, it’s worse to call out underachieving teams or players that need a wake-up call. Why ligh... [More]
Posted Friday, February 22, 2008 04:16 PM
Arguably the sport we hear run-of-the-mill gamblers and fair to middling touts claim is the hardest to predict would be the NBA. Some even imprudently claiming it’s a true crapshoot. We strongly disagree, but that is because we are learned enough to realize not all weapons used in handicapping are weighed evenly in all sports. For example with college basketball here, our news and notes from our private clipboard has endless valuable lowdown. They are compiled from hometown newspapers and the team’s own press releases.
But in the NBA, the computer programs become most valuable. GodsTips.com lead NBA handicapper Curt Thomas will be the first to admit he is not a great expert on team personnel and is even more upfront in admitting it cost him in other sports, when he had his own service. However, he is a certified computer nerd. He found the sport that had the highest number of unique systems with lofty z-scores was the NBA and not surprisingly the one that past results were a precursor to future final scores.
Using winning percentage to date, margin of loss/victory in recent games, and pointspreads to measure perceived difference in quality between opponents, top a list of parameters in which he finds comparing teams in similar situations in past years goes a long way fo... [More]
Posted Thursday, February 21, 2008 06:11 PM
Most of the articles I’ve written are one basic concept or theory discussed in great length and detail be it at OffshoreInsiders.com or articles elsewhere.
In response to a question about crowd sizes and homecourt advantage—in this particular case it was college hoops:
There are endless quotes from players and coaches alike who have spoken of which are the toughest arenas in which to play. There have been many articles written by said participants.
Back when Penn State played in their gym, it was considered one of the great home court advantages in all of hoops. Ditto for the West Virginia Coliseum. Sharp players are very aware of home/road dichotomy. The even more acute look beyond the stats and scratch the surface. It stands to reason that home court advantages become even bigger when a sell-out crowd is on hand.
I’ve spoken in the past of a handicapper who while I admit at times is blinded by what he calls intangibles. I must confess that I used to laugh when he would go nuts over such things as a team with their first sell-out in three years or first game on national television, etc. But in hindsight, these nuggets can ha... [More]
Posted Thursday, February 21, 2008 06:05 PM
The burgeoning betting scandal of former Toledo running back Harvey “Scooter” McDougle Jr. has again brought to the forefront the evergreen discussion and debate of the frequency of game fixing and point shaving.
The answers as to the questions how common it is and by who will probably be forever elusive. Professor Justin Wolfers, of the respected Wharton School, did a study which concludes point shaving is quite prevalent in college basketball. We critiqued that study in another article and while we disagree with his conclusions, clearly a man of his credentials cannot easily be discounted.
But in this article we want to bring to light the fallacies in a common presumption. Most seem to assume pointspread chicanery is limited to giving money to an athlete, coach or official in return for altering the betting result of a game.
Some naively believe at the professional sports level this is unlikely to happen, especially with those who affect the outcome of the game the most, the athletes.
The prevailing thought is a high-priced athlete has too much to lose and the amount of payola required would be cost prohibitive to the potential game fixer. That in theory should be true, but one would probably... [More]
Posted Thursday, February 21, 2008 05:59 PM
Oh true we have had more than our share of success with computer generated time-tested and statistically significantly systems, which have proven to be their absolute best in the NBA. Also the NBA is second to college hoops when it comes to our “sharps versus squares” games. That means most of the sharp money is going one way and most of the sucker money the other way according to our offshore, Vegas and “outlaw” contacts. We go with the sharp money.
But there is no substitute for great analytical handicapping in any sport including the NBA. There are some very common dynamics that apply often and mastering the conceptions and misconceptions is imperative.
Very high on that list at GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com, is the NBA scheduling dynamics.
I know of some guys who almost religiously bet with a more rested team. This is especially so if one team is playing their third game in four nights, fourth in five or fifth in seven and the other team (generally the home team) is rested.
Or at the very least if they don’t religiously bet it, the only alternative is to pass. They would never bet on the presumed more weary team. Let us leave no doubt ... [More]
Posted Wednesday, February 20, 2008 08:37 PM
Get Healthy Charlotte Please
Anyone who has been a client of ours for years knows how much we exploit the dichotomous ATS and straight up teams. For those on the outside looking in, the teams that are most profitable for sharp players are top shelf teams that often win without covering or bottom dwellers that lose straight up but are able to cover the spread.
We have isolated the Bobcats as a strong candidate to keep on our radar screen. It has been a baptism by fire for first-year head coach Sam Vincent. He has learned from his early missteps, but continues to struggle with a shorthanded team.
“Leading scorer Gerald Wallace played in only one of the final six games entering the All-Star break, plus Raymond Felton, Matt Carroll and Derek Anderson all have bruised knees,” points out Curt Thomas, full-time NBA handicapper for GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com.
Thanks to their home arena hosting three college basketball tournaments, Charlotte plays 15 of 21 games on the road in an upcoming stretch. A horrid 4-18 straight up on the highway before the break, safe to say they will be getting tons of points. Thus, they just need to be more competitive to cover. They don’t need to win outright.
With a coach who has progressed with on the job training, a team that should, repeat should be healthier, they... [More]