Hyundai Tournament of Champions Preview and Picks

The 2011 PGA Tour season tees off on Thursday last afternoon from the Plantation Course at the Kapalua Resort in Kapalua, Hawaii for the Hyundai Tournament of Champions. It is called the Tournament of Champions because it is an invite for 2010 PGA Tour winners only and even the $1.12 million winner’s check is not strong enough to lure everyone to paradise. Only 34 players are in the field this week with notable names Lee Westwood, Martin Kaymer, Phil Mickelson and Rory McIlroy not part of it.

 

The new season is an early start right after the holidays so a lot of players extend their offseason instead of coming right out of the gates. Only one of the four Majors winners are teeing up this week as U.S. Open Champion Graeme McDowell is here. As for other European players who are not full time PGA Tour members, a lot of them prefer to play elsewhere and not use their limited visits here. Nonetheless, it is a strong field with a lot of big names for the 2011 opener.

 

The Plantation Course will play as a par-73, 7,411-yard test that uses elevation changes, doglegs and the ever-present winds. It is a very difficult test for the season’s first event because it is safe to say that most players are not at their best right now with a lot of rust needing to be shed. We have no current performances ... [More]

A Festivus for the rest of us!

The holiday season is upon us and that mean it is time to put chestnuts on an open fire and sing songs that are supposed to make us feel warm and fuzzy.

Well, chestnuts are disgusting (try one) and I don’t sing. Hey I like Christmas as much as the next guy but when I went to Home Depot in mid-October and saw their tree displays already up, I almost lost it.

 

Instead let’s wish everyone a “Happy Festivus” just as Morty Seinfeld would have wanted it.

 

Take a seat next to the aluminum pole and listen to my airing of grievances.

 

Miami Heat

 

Is it me or does everyone else that watches ESPN find it overly annoying that every time there is a score change in a Miami Heat game, they need to update it on the ticker? Or every third time the NBA Scores come around they show just the Heat score and no others?

[More]

NFL Divisional Futures

We are down to the last quarter of the NFL season which is hard to believe in itself. Once again, it is absolutely wide open on which teams are heading to the playoffs and which teams have the best chances to win the Super Bowl.

 

At the start of the preseason in my 7/29 blog I recommended a futures play on Atlanta (+2000) to win the Super Bowl. The Falcons are currently +600 so playing it early was a huge value play and at this point would be a great win. I still do not know if Atlanta has what it takes.

 

I also recommended the Bengals (+5000). Do they still have a shot?

 

Let’s take a look at a couple betting scenarios as we wind down the season.

 

To Win the AFC South:

 

Jacksonville -195

Indianapolis +120

 

[More]

Bowl Eligibility Possibilities

With only a few weeks left in the college football regular season, some teams are on the bowl game bubble needing to win one or more of their remaining games to become bowl eligible. This can provide us with some added motivation for these teams and in the right spots, we can cash some tickets.

 

A quick look at some teams for this week that can become bowl eligible with a win:

 

Syracuse Orange (3-2, 6-3)

 

Syracuse has the necessary six wins for bowl eligibility but two of those came against FCS competition and teams are allowed to use only one win against the lower division. The Orange have three chances starting this week at Rutgers where they are a road favorite. This is the first time they have been a road chalk against a BCS team since 2003 when they were favored by six points at, you guessed it, Rutgers. They lost 24-7. 

 

Iowa St. Cyclones (3-3, 5-3)

 

Not many expected Iowa St. to make it to a bowl game last season after a 2-10 season in 2008 but the Cyclones did just that and won over Minnesota. They have a chance for back-to-back bowl game... [More]

NFL Midseason Surprises

Well, we are just about halfway through the NFL season and it is anyone’s guess who will be Super Bowl bound and even playoff bound for that matter. When you think the league can’t have any more parity, what happens? We get more parity.

 

It is a great thing for the NFL and its fans. Unlike baseball where basically the same teams compete for the playoffs every year, we have new teams on an annual basis making a run. A lockout is looming for next season and it will be devastating for fans (and us handicappers) and we can only hope it gets ironed out.

 

Here are some of the bigger 2010 NFL surprises:

 

1. Dallas Cowboys

 

This team has (had) arguably the most talent and here they are sitting at 1-6 (1-6 ATS). The most amazing thing is that the Cowboys have been outgained only once and that was the game Tony Romo went down. His absence was devastating for a bounceback bid and this team is officially done.

 

How do we go abo... [More]

NFL Power Rankings Top Ten

With the NFL season here, the new Power Rankings are out. Here is a quick look at the preseason top ten:

 

New Orleans Saints - New Orleans deserves to be at the top although winning consecutive Super Bowls is becoming increasingly difficult in this league. The Saints are still the team to beat.

 

Dallas Cowboys - The Cowboys come into the season with high expectations once again but they have yet to love up to those in the past. Is this the year Romo finally breaks out?

 

Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis lost a tough one to New Orleans and very uncharacteristically with a Peyton Manning mistake. He isn’t getting younger but is still one of the best in the game.

 

New England Patriots - New England has a lot of questions surrounding the defense and the running game. Tom Brady looks as motivated as ever to get back to the top.

 

Minnesota Vikings - Minnesota can make a big move up if it can extract some revenge on... [More]

NCAA Early-Season Betting Tips

It is hard to believe but the college football season is upon us! While it signals a near end to summer, it also signals the start of the best time of year in sports in my opinion. Some will argue March Madness and futball people will argue the World Cup but football is where it is.

 

Handicapping the early part of college football can be a challenge as there is not a whole lot to go by. Unlike the NFL, past history (even back to last season) needs to be looked at cautiously because of the turnover that college programs go through.

 

How do we tackle these early season games? There are a number of factors we need to take into account and use to our advantage.

 

Experience

 

This is one of the bigger aspects of early betting. As mentioned, turnover is big in this game so teams coming back with a lot of returning players usually have a big edge against teams with little experience returning. This is especially important across the offensive and defensive lines.

 

Depth

 

Fall cam... [More]

NCAA Win Totals - The Unders

Last week I took a look at some NCAA season win totals that looked like good ‘Over’ bets. This week I will look in the other direction with the NCAA Unders.

 

The totals I am posting are from one sportsbook and could very well not be the same number you get at another sportsbook. The key is to shop around and remember that the best over/under numbers do not necessarily mean they are the best bets as juice can play a significant role in the future betting as well.

 

Under 9 Oregon Ducks +125 (BEST BET)

 

The Ducks have put together back-to-back 10-3 seasons so expectations are once again high with 17 starters returning. Oregon is the popular pick to win the Pac Ten title for a second straight season and it has been put into some preseason polls as a top 10 team. The talent is there for it to happen but there are some questions, some big questions, that could prevent a repeat.

 

Head coach Chip Kelly started right where former coach Mike Bellotti left off and he did so with only 10 starters returning last year. He had the benefit of a strong offensive attack led by potential Heisman candidate quarterback Jeremiah Masoli but an openin... [More]

NCAA Win Totals - The Overs

Last week I took a look at some NFL season win totals that looked like good ‘Over’ bets. This week I will look at the college ranks, starting with the NCAA Overs.

 

The totals I am posting are from one sportsbook and could very well not be the same number you get at another sportsbook. The key is to shop around and remember that the best over/under numbers do not necessarily mean they are the best bets as juice can play a significant role in the future betting as well.

 

Over 8 North Carolina Tar Heels -115 (BEST BET)

 

North Carolina is coming off its second straight eight-win season and back-to-back bowl games for the first time since 1997-98. This year’s version could be one of the most talented Tar Heels teams in recent memory but winning the ACC is still going to be a challenge. First off, the offense needs to improve as it went the wrong way last season and second, playing in the ACC Coastal Division is no cakewalk.

 

Head coach Butch Davis is entering his fourth season as the North Carolina head coach and he has done a great job in turning the program around. Two straight bowl games are huge but walking away with two losses, ... [More]

NFL Future Win Totals - The Overs

Last week I took a look at some season win totals, starting with the NFL Unders. This week I will look at some other season win totals, this time with the NFL Overs.

The totals I am posting are from one sportsbook and could very well not be the same number you get at another sportsbook. The key is to shop around and remember that the best over/under numbers do not necessarily mean they are the best bets as juice can play a significant role in the future betting as well.

Over 9.5 Atlanta Falcons -110 (BEST BET)

I had the Falcons as one of my sleeper Super Bowl future bets so to no surprise I have them going ‘Over’ their win total. Three key factors play into this. First, Atlanta was hit hard by the injury bug a season ago so a big bounceback can be expected. Second, the division the Falcons play in is one of the weaker ones in the league. Lastly, the schedule could not be more favorable.

Head coach Mike Smith has done a phenomenal job of turning this team around following the Bobby Petrino debacle that saw the Falcons go 4-12 in 2007. Atlanta missed the playoffs last season with a 9-7 record which came after an 11-5 campaign and postseason appearance in 2008 so the motivation factor alone is worthy of an uphill climb. Atlanta has not won a playoff game since 2004 but this should be the year.

Offensively, Atlanta has one of the best young quarterbacks in the game in Matt Ryan. He posted an 87.7 quarterback rating in his rookie season but dropp... [More]

NFL Future Win Totals - The Unders

Last week I took a look a couple sleeper teams in the NFL to win the Super Bowl. This week I will begin to look at some season win totals, starting with the NFL Unders.

The totals I am posting are from one sportsbook and could very well not be the same number you get at another sportsbook. The key is to shop around and remember that the best over/under numbers do not necessarily mean they are the best bets as juice can play a significant role in the future betting as well.

Under 9.5 New England Patriots +110 (BEST BET)

The once powerful Patriots dynasty has taken a step back ever since that last second Super Bowl loss against the Giants three years ago. New England failed to make the playoffs at 11-5 in 2008 and last season, it got back into the postseason with a 10-6 record only to get hammered in the Wild Card round at home against Baltimore.

This season, New England enters camp without an offensive or defensive coordinator in place which is almost unheard of nowadays in the NFL. Dean Pees, the defensive coordinator the last six years was let go while Bill O’Brien, who is the quarterbacks coach, is the closest thing to a coordinator in that side of the ball.

While the Patriots still have Tom Brady at quarterback, they are not getting any younger. Both Randy Moss and Wes Welker have lost a step at receiver while the running back situation is relatively the same with Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris and Fred Taylor all 33 and above. The offensive l... [More]

NFL Futures - Possible Sleepers

Last week we looked at some college football sleepers that were worth a shot with future prices. With NFL training camps opening, we will turn our attention to the pros and take a look at a couple teams that may surprise this season and make a Super Bowl run.

Atlanta Falcons (+2000)

The Falcons went 11-5 in 2008 and made it to the playoffs before losing to eventual NFC Champion Arizona. Last year it was another winning season at 9-7 but it wasn’t enough to make it back to the postseason. I see a big bounceback in 2010 as injuries played a big role in the step back from the prior season.

Quarterback Matt Ryan missed two games while running back Michael Turner missed five games and those two components are huge for the offense to succeed. Defensively, the Falcons need to continue to stuff the run as they had their best season since 2006 in that category, allowing 107 ypg on 4.0 ypc. An improvement would is out of the question.

Atlanta needs to get past defending Super Bowl Champions New Orleans obviously to make any move. The rest of the division is soft and the remainder of the schedule is in their favor. The Falcons open at Roethlisberger-less Pittsburgh and they also catch Cleveland, St. Louis and Seattle on the road, all of which are very winnable.

Cincinnati Bengals (+5000)

Cincinnati went three straight seasons without a playoff berth until it broke through last season before being shown an early exit. The Bengals were a team that... [More]

NCAA Future Looks - the Sleepers

We have reached the point where it is a downhill drive to the start of football season. The hazy days of summer consist of MLB, WNBA and CFL. Needless to say, I’m looking forward to football.

Because of the late Labor Day holiday this year, we won’t be having any August college football. As much as I want the season to get here, I think it is a good thing as to be perfectly honest, football should not start until September. That’s just the way it is.

We are 43 days from the season opening kickoff between Presbyterian and Wake Forest (NL sorry folks) and that means it is time to look at some futures. Precisely, BCS Championship futures. Five teams, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ohio St., Florida and Boise St., all have odds in the single digits showing not much value. Let’s get the season started with some possible National Championship sleepers.

Nebraska Cornhuskers (+1200)

Nebraska may not be considered a real sleeper as there is a lot of buzz surrounding the Huskers this season. However, with Oklahoma being the Big XII favorite, Nebraska can fall into this category. What better way for Nebraska to exit the Big XII, a conference it never wanted to be a part of anyway, with a conference title and a National Championship?

The Huskers bring back 17 starters including 10 on offense and that is important since the offense was not a strong unit last season. Replacing Ndamukong Suh is impossible but the defense, which has improved by 28 ppg and 205 ypg over ... [More]

Early-season MLB Fantasy surprises

I cannot believe the All-Star break is this weekend. It is pretty depressing knowing that summer is half over and living in the northeast makes it that much more depressing. The only light at the end of the tunnel is that football is right around the corner. Well, the CFL is going on right now but I’m talking NCAA and NFL, the latter hitting camps in a couple weeks.

 

The All-Star break also brings a break for handicappers and gamblers as Monday and Wednesday have no action, the only two days of the year this normally takes place. Although there are WNBA games on Wednesday, if you go that way. It actually is a nice little break as the long days and nights of work will be here before you know it.

 

How’s your fantasy team doing? I’m fortunately in first place in my division but I don’t know how long this is going to last as my pitching staff is falling like flies as Clay Buchholz and Shaun Marcum have landed on the DL. According to the ESPN Player Rater, three of my players, Carl Crawford, Miguel Cabrera and Adam Wainwright, are all ranked in the top four. Can you say luck?

 

Let’s take a... [More]

NBA Free Agent Pool: Best of the Rest

Let the circus begin.

The 2010 NBA free agent class is the best in history and the hierarchy of teams could change dramatically. It is unlikely any of the big names will reach agreements on July 8th, the first day they can actually sign with a new team, but what about everyone else?

With names like LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Chris Bosh, Amare Stoudemire, Carlos Boozer, Paul Pierce and Dirk Nowitzki out there, some guys who would normally be making news are being overlooked. Let’s look at the cream of the second crop.

David Lee

Lee is one of the most underrated players in the league and the Knicks would be smart to lock him up. He averaged 20.3 ppg and 11.7 rpg, the second straight season he has averaged a double-double.

The Bulls, Heat and Timberwolves are the three teams most interested in Lee’s services but the Nets could also be in the running if they fail to agree to terms with Bosh.

Rudy Gay

Gay is a model of consistency as he has very similar numbers over his last three seasons with the Grizzlies, averaging 20.2, 18.9 and 19.6 ppg and 6.2, 5.5 and 5.9 rpg. He is one of the reasons the Grizzlies are improving and could be a reason for a descent if he leaves.

New Jersey and Minnesota are the frontrunners to sign Gay

Raymon... [More]

Hottest Female Golfers

The LPGA Championship begins today and for those who have no idea what this is, it is one of the Majors that the female golfers play. I normally could care less about this myself but the event is taking place a couple miles up the road from me at Locust Hill Country Club in Pittsford, NY. Therefore there is interest in it for me.

And I will be honest, it isn’t about the golf but it is about the chicks in the short skirts. I’m not talking about Laura Davies or Juli Inkster but the ones that we really like to look at.

At the top of the list for most is Natalie Gulbis as she was easily the hottest on tour at one point. She is still up there but she has been passed by a number of newer girls that have made it on tour.



Beatriz Recari is easily the hottest girl in the LPGA and she could rival a lot of the hotties in Hollywood. She is just a rookie and she is from Spain so not many people know her just yet. Don’t worry, you will.



Anna Rawson is next on the list. She is downright beautiful plus she is 5’10”. She was born in Australia and came to the states to play golf at USC. You know she belongs on this list when she was a model before a golfer.



This one will go either way for a lot of people – Michelle Wie. She came up as the Tiger Woods of ladies golf but never lived up to expectations. Injuries and her idiot parents kept her back but she is now starting to meet those expectations. And her legs go on forever.


<... [More]

Are you kidding me?

Let’s take a look at some quick happenings in the sports world this week. The “Are you kidding me?” version.

 

Today is one of the best sports days of the year. Lakers/Celtics Game Seven, round one of the U.S. Open. Are you kidding me? It doesn’t get much better than this. You can add the World Cup to this list if you like watching paint dry or water boil.

 

Speaking of the U.S. Open, all of the discussion is who will win it - Tiger Woods or Phil Mickelson. Are you kidding me? How about neither one? Tiger sucks right now and Lefty is cursed in our national championship with five runner-up finishes. Tim Clark at 60/1…sign me up.

 

The Celtics and Lakers close the NBA season tonight in what has the makings of a classic. Of course, that’s what was said about the entire series and it has been a dud as has been the entire playoffs. Are you kidding me? Can we have just one game where the last minute of the game means something?

 

The World Cup is a massive event apparently but I don’t see it. After t... [More]

The Changing of the College Sports Landscape

Wednesday was arguably the single biggest day in collegiate athletics that I have seen that will affect the future of the sporting landscape. One day is all it took to completely change the dynamic of college sports.

First, Nebraska decided to leave the Big XII and move to the Big Ten. It isn’t official yet but it is going to be made official very soon. This is going to create a domino effect and the once mighty Big XII will be left in shambles. Colorado is expected to join the Pac Ten as early as Thursday and that could trigger a mass exodus.

I’m not a fan of these moves at all. I’m a traditionalist when it comes to college sports, namely college football. I don’t like change as it messes up so many things that are good about the game. A lot of young readers may not remember the Southwest Conference or the Big Eight Conference when they dissolved in 1996 to form the Big XII, the first superconference. I didn’t like it then and this is why I don’t like it now.

We all know what this is about and it is unfortunate that money has taken over college sports. There are going to be many rivalries that will come to an end but depending on where the majority of the teams go, some could still remain in effect. Who are the losers? Kansas, Kansas St., Baylor and Iowa St. will be left holding their ‘you know what’.

There has been an argument the last few y... [More]

Jim Joyce Deserves a Break

Jim Joyce is human. He made a tough call last night on that ground ball to first base which ended the perfect game for Armando Galarraga with two outs in the ninth inning. I am not saying he made the right call but I’m not saying he made a bad call either. Everyone else is saying that and that is their opinion while mine is he made the wrong call. We all do sometime.

It has been less than 12 hours since this all took place and there have been numerous stories popping up about how he blew history. His Wikipedia page was vandalized. I’m sure he had to change his cell phone number already. No offense to the city of Detroit but I can guarantee there has been a death threat or two. The website firejimjoyce.com was created.

Why do I think he deserves a break? He clearly knows he messed up and he did not make the call he did to put himself in the forefront. He wept after the game knowing that he robbed Galarraga of a piece of history. Do you think Joe West wept after tossing out Mark Buehrle after calling two bogus balks? Do you think Bill Hohn wept after tossing out Roy Oswalt only later to find out Oswalt was mad at himself? I doubt it.

People are saying he should be fired, suspended, thrown out of baseball. I think we need more like him. Every umpire has made at least one bad call along the way, some many. That is part of the human element of the game and it is inevitable. It ... [More]

Suns at Lakers Preview

The Numbers

 

The Lakers are anywhere from -7 to -7.5 in this Game Five which is right around where they were favored by in Game Two at home. The total sits around 219 which is pretty close to where it has been the last two games. With the first four games of this series going ‘Over’ don’t be surprised to see this number go up higher.

 

Home Cooking

 

Home court advantage is important come playoff time and the home court has been a major factor in this series thus far as the host has won and covered all four games. The margins haven’t even been close which is rather surprising for a Conference Finals series.

 

The average margin of victory has been 12.8 ppg while the average cover has been 9.4 ppg so there has not been a lot of sweating taking place for bettors. The home team and the over, an ever popular square parlay, has cashed all four tickets thus far.

 

This trend has carried over ... [More]

Lakers/Celtics - here we go again...

Everyone thought we were going to see a Lakers/Cavaliers NBA Finals. Well, that didn’t quite work out.

 

Everyone then thought we were going to see a Lakers/Magic rematch. Well, Boston is getting in the way again.

 

Now we are on a collision course for a Lakers/Celtics NBA Finals and it does not get any better than that.

 

Sure we won’t see LeBron vs. Kobe nor will we see Orlando trying to avenge last season’s Finals loss.

 

What we will get to see is the 12th meeting in the NBA Finals of the two most storied franchises in the NBA.

 

The series dates back to 1948 covering 272 meetings but it really did not get going until 1959, the first of seven championship meetings in the next 11 years. The Celtics brought home the NBA Title in all seven of those series’ with three of those going the seven-game distance.

 

[More]

This Week In Sports...

Let’s take a look at some quick happenings in the sports world this week.

 

So Tiger Woods has an inflamed neck joint. I’ve never heard of that injury before but it must really hurt. Is this just another excuse to cover up why he is playing bad? Apparently Hank Haney thinks he’s a pain in the neck too.

 

Brian Cushing was able to retain his NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year award as the writers gave him the nod for a second time. The revote took place after testing positive for HCG. At least now he is ovulating more regularly.

 

The Montreal Canadians shocked the hockey world again. Down 3-1 to the Capitals, they came back to win the series and then down 3-2 to the Pens, won that series as well. With a Flyers win Friday, it will be #7 vs. #8 in the Conference Finals. Yawn….

 

Washington continues to surprise as they trail the Phillies by just a game and a half and #1 pick Stephen Strasburg has struck out 13 and allowed one hit in two Triple-A starts. It may sound crazy but the Nationals are the... [More]

Hawks at Magic Game Two

The Numbers

 

Orlando opened as nine-point favorites with the total set at 189.5. We tend to see a Game Two line go down from the Game One line as the linesmakers bring the number down to offset players taking advantage of a better line for the losing team. That is not the case here and any zig zag bettors have an advantageous number.

 

Zig or Zag

 

The Zig Zag Theory was once a very popular betting strategy in the NBA Playoffs but because of its popularity, the markets caught up and since 2000, it has been a losing situational strategy.

 

This theory basically used to say to bet the loser of the previous game in the next game but linesmakers have caught up to this rationale in recent years as you will see that the line in the second game is usually lower even if the home team won that previous game in the series.

 

Orlando is favored by the same number as it was in Game One, which is uncommon... [More]

And Down The Stretch They Come...

Saturday is May 1st and the greatest two minutes in sports takes place from Churchill Downs with the 136th running of the Kentucky Derby.

 

Last year it was 50-1 longshot Mine That Bird that won and paid $103.20, the second-largest in Derby history behind the 1913 Derby winner Donerail and it wasn’t even close. Don’t expect to see something like that this year.

 

Now that the pole position draw is random once again, anything can happen as trainers no longer have a say in where they get to start. 3-1 morning favorite Lookin At Lucky drew post one and that is trouble as no winner has come from the rail since Ferdinand in 1986.

 

I’m looking at 5-1 Sidney’s Candy who will be running from the far outside. It is far from an ideal draw but in 2008, Big Brown won from post 20, the first winner from that post since 1929.

 

“Not the best of draws,” said John Sadler, trainer of Sidney’s Candy. “At least you’re outside and can see what’s going on. It just shows how tough it is. But what are you going to do? That... [More]

Game of the Day: Suns at Blazers

The Numbers

 

Portland opened as a 1.5-point favorite over Phoenix for Game Three with the total set at 205. That over/under is higher than both games played in Phoenix which is rather surprising as the under has been more frequent in Suns road games and Blazers home games.

 

The Skinny

 

Portland is feeling pretty good about things after leaving Phoenix with a series split and heading home for the next two games. Obviously the Suns are not feeling as good but they should have some confidence following a huge 29-point win on Tuesday.

 

The Blazers have won three of the five meetings this season including the lone game played at the Rose Garden. Portland came back from a 15-point deficit in that game as it outscored the Suns 35-21 in the final period and held on for the three-point win.

 

Game One losers have gone on to win best-of-seven series only 21 percent of the time which did not bode we... [More]