Last week I took a look at some NFL season win totals that looked like good ‘Over’ bets. This week I will look at the college ranks, starting with the NCAA Overs.
The totals I am posting are from one sportsbook and could very well not be the same number you get at another sportsbook. The key is to shop around and remember that the best over/under numbers do not necessarily mean they are the best bets as juice can play a significant role in the future betting as well.
Over 8 North Carolina Tar Heels -115 (BEST BET)
North Carolina is coming off its second straight eight-win season and back-to-back bowl games for the first time since 1997-98. This year’s version could be one of the most talented Tar Heels teams in recent memory but winning the ACC is still going to be a challenge. First off, the offense needs to improve as it went the wrong way last season and second, playing in the ACC Coastal Division is no cakewalk.
Head coach Butch Davis is entering his fourth season as the North Carolina head coach and he has done a great job in turning the program around. Two straight bowl games are huge but walking away with two losses, by a combined three points, stings. The goals are higher this season and rightfully so as the Tar Heels lost their last three games last season by a combined six points and have a favorable schedule this year.
North Carolina ranked first in the ACC and sixth nationally in total defense, allowing 269.6 ypg, and ranked second in the conference in scoring defense at just 17.1 ppg. The good news is that nine starters are back on the unit, including as many as five potential NFL first round picks. The bad news is that one of those, tackle Marvin Austin, in under investigation for dealing with an agent. Reports are he will get just a one-game suspension.
The Tar Heels offense is another story. They finished 108th in the nation in total offense and 83rd in scoring offense so those rankings have to improve obviously. North Carolina does bring back 10 starters and the weaknesses that plagued it last season should be a strength this year. Quarterback T.J. Yates, a fifth-year senior, is healthy and finally has experience around him at all positions. It is up to him however as to how effective he will be.
The schedule is far from easy but it is more favorable than most. In the Coastal Division, the Tar Heels get other top contenders Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech at home while getting beatable bottom feeders Virginia and Duke on the road. The first game of the year is at the Georgia Dome against LSU and that test can set the tone for the season. A win there and the ‘Over’ is looking great.
Predicted Finish: 10-2
Other Overs to look at:
Over 9 Iowa Hawkeyes +110
Quarterback Ricky Stanzi needs to cut down on his mistakes but a favorable schedule, getting every top Big Ten team at home, is a huge bonus. Predicted Finish: 11-1
Over 6 Washington Huskies -140
The juice is not favorable but the win total is. The Huskies are confident again and are talking Pac Ten title. The defense needs to step up. Predicted Finish: 7-5
What other NCAA win totals look good to go over?
Matt Fargo is a Professional handicapper at Covers Experts, where “We only make money when you do”.