NFL Divisional Futures

We are down to the last quarter of the NFL season which is hard to believe in itself. Once again, it is absolutely wide open on which teams are heading to the playoffs and which teams have the best chances to win the Super Bowl.

 

At the start of the preseason in my 7/29 blog I recommended a futures play on Atlanta (+2000) to win the Super Bowl. The Falcons are currently +600 so playing it early was a huge value play and at this point would be a great win. I still do not know if Atlanta has what it takes.

 

I also recommended the Bengals (+5000). Do they still have a shot?

 

Let’s take a look at a couple betting scenarios as we wind down the season.

 

To Win the AFC South:

 

Jacksonville -195

Indianapolis +120

 

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NFL Midseason Surprises

Well, we are just about halfway through the NFL season and it is anyone’s guess who will be Super Bowl bound and even playoff bound for that matter. When you think the league can’t have any more parity, what happens? We get more parity.

 

It is a great thing for the NFL and its fans. Unlike baseball where basically the same teams compete for the playoffs every year, we have new teams on an annual basis making a run. A lockout is looming for next season and it will be devastating for fans (and us handicappers) and we can only hope it gets ironed out.

 

Here are some of the bigger 2010 NFL surprises:

 

1. Dallas Cowboys

 

This team has (had) arguably the most talent and here they are sitting at 1-6 (1-6 ATS). The most amazing thing is that the Cowboys have been outgained only once and that was the game Tony Romo went down. His absence was devastating for a bounceback bid and this team is officially done.

 

How do we go abo... [More]

NFL Power Rankings Top Ten

With the NFL season here, the new Power Rankings are out. Here is a quick look at the preseason top ten:

 

New Orleans Saints - New Orleans deserves to be at the top although winning consecutive Super Bowls is becoming increasingly difficult in this league. The Saints are still the team to beat.

 

Dallas Cowboys - The Cowboys come into the season with high expectations once again but they have yet to love up to those in the past. Is this the year Romo finally breaks out?

 

Indianapolis Colts - Indianapolis lost a tough one to New Orleans and very uncharacteristically with a Peyton Manning mistake. He isn’t getting younger but is still one of the best in the game.

 

New England Patriots - New England has a lot of questions surrounding the defense and the running game. Tom Brady looks as motivated as ever to get back to the top.

 

Minnesota Vikings - Minnesota can make a big move up if it can extract some revenge on... [More]

NFL Future Win Totals - The Overs

Last week I took a look at some season win totals, starting with the NFL Unders. This week I will look at some other season win totals, this time with the NFL Overs.

The totals I am posting are from one sportsbook and could very well not be the same number you get at another sportsbook. The key is to shop around and remember that the best over/under numbers do not necessarily mean they are the best bets as juice can play a significant role in the future betting as well.

Over 9.5 Atlanta Falcons -110 (BEST BET)

I had the Falcons as one of my sleeper Super Bowl future bets so to no surprise I have them going ‘Over’ their win total. Three key factors play into this. First, Atlanta was hit hard by the injury bug a season ago so a big bounceback can be expected. Second, the division the Falcons play in is one of the weaker ones in the league. Lastly, the schedule could not be more favorable.

Head coach Mike Smith has done a phenomenal job of turning this team around following the Bobby Petrino debacle that saw the Falcons go 4-12 in 2007. Atlanta missed the playoffs last season with a 9-7 record which came after an 11-5 campaign and postseason appearance in 2008 so the motivation factor alone is worthy of an uphill climb. Atlanta has not won a playoff game since 2004 but this should be the year.

Offensively, Atlanta has one of the best young quarterbacks in the game in Matt Ryan. He posted an 87.7 quarterback rating in his rookie season but dropp... [More]

NFL Future Win Totals - The Unders

Last week I took a look a couple sleeper teams in the NFL to win the Super Bowl. This week I will begin to look at some season win totals, starting with the NFL Unders.

The totals I am posting are from one sportsbook and could very well not be the same number you get at another sportsbook. The key is to shop around and remember that the best over/under numbers do not necessarily mean they are the best bets as juice can play a significant role in the future betting as well.

Under 9.5 New England Patriots +110 (BEST BET)

The once powerful Patriots dynasty has taken a step back ever since that last second Super Bowl loss against the Giants three years ago. New England failed to make the playoffs at 11-5 in 2008 and last season, it got back into the postseason with a 10-6 record only to get hammered in the Wild Card round at home against Baltimore.

This season, New England enters camp without an offensive or defensive coordinator in place which is almost unheard of nowadays in the NFL. Dean Pees, the defensive coordinator the last six years was let go while Bill O’Brien, who is the quarterbacks coach, is the closest thing to a coordinator in that side of the ball.

While the Patriots still have Tom Brady at quarterback, they are not getting any younger. Both Randy Moss and Wes Welker have lost a step at receiver while the running back situation is relatively the same with Kevin Faulk, Sammy Morris and Fred Taylor all 33 and above. The offensive l... [More]

NFL Futures - Possible Sleepers

Last week we looked at some college football sleepers that were worth a shot with future prices. With NFL training camps opening, we will turn our attention to the pros and take a look at a couple teams that may surprise this season and make a Super Bowl run.

Atlanta Falcons (+2000)

The Falcons went 11-5 in 2008 and made it to the playoffs before losing to eventual NFC Champion Arizona. Last year it was another winning season at 9-7 but it wasn’t enough to make it back to the postseason. I see a big bounceback in 2010 as injuries played a big role in the step back from the prior season.

Quarterback Matt Ryan missed two games while running back Michael Turner missed five games and those two components are huge for the offense to succeed. Defensively, the Falcons need to continue to stuff the run as they had their best season since 2006 in that category, allowing 107 ypg on 4.0 ypc. An improvement would is out of the question.

Atlanta needs to get past defending Super Bowl Champions New Orleans obviously to make any move. The rest of the division is soft and the remainder of the schedule is in their favor. The Falcons open at Roethlisberger-less Pittsburgh and they also catch Cleveland, St. Louis and Seattle on the road, all of which are very winnable.

Cincinnati Bengals (+5000)

Cincinnati went three straight seasons without a playoff berth until it broke through last season before being shown an early exit. The Bengals were a team that... [More]