Last week I took a look at some season win totals, starting with the NFL Unders. This week I will look at some other season win totals, this time with the NFL Overs.
The totals I am posting are from one sportsbook and could very well not be the same number you get at another sportsbook. The key is to shop around and remember that the best over/under numbers do not necessarily mean they are the best bets as juice can play a significant role in the future betting as well.
Over 9.5 Atlanta Falcons -110 (BEST BET)I had the Falcons as one of my sleeper Super Bowl future bets so to no surprise I have them going ‘Over’ their win total. Three key factors play into this. First, Atlanta was hit hard by the injury bug a season ago so a big bounceback can be expected. Second, the division the Falcons play in is one of the weaker ones in the league. Lastly, the schedule could not be more favorable.
Head coach Mike Smith has done a phenomenal job of turning this team around following the Bobby Petrino debacle that saw the Falcons go 4-12 in 2007. Atlanta missed the playoffs last season with a 9-7 record which came after an 11-5 campaign and postseason appearance in 2008 so the motivation factor alone is worthy of an uphill climb. Atlanta has not won a playoff game since 2004 but this should be the year.
Offensively, Atlanta has one of the best young quarterbacks in the game in Matt Ryan. He posted an 87.7 quarterback rating in his rookie season but dropped that to 80.9 in an injury-marred 2008 season. Also on the shelf last year was running back Michael Turner, who missed five games and accumulated just over half of his 1,699 yards from 2008. If those two stay healthy, the offense will be a potent one.
Defensively, the Falcons need to continue to stuff the run as they had their best season since 2006 in that category, allowing 107 ypg on 4.0 ypc. The problem was that they finished 28th in passing defense and tied for 26th in sacks with a mere 28. John Abraham had 16.5 sacks in 2008 but dipped to just 5.5 last season so Atlanta needs him to get back to his old form. The addition of great cover-cornerback Dunta Robinson is big as well.
Looking at the NFC South and right off you see the defending Super Bowl champion Saints. At the same time, Carolina and Tampa Bay are included so the division looks to be a two-horse race this season. The Falcons have gained one of the best home field advantages in football as they have gone 13-3 at the Georgia Dome over the last two seasons. They now need to improve on the road.
The schedule this season should allow the Falcons to do just that. They open at Roethlisberger-less Pittsburgh and in addition to division road games at Tampa Bay and Carolina, they catch Cleveland, St. Louis and Seattle on the road, all of which are very winnable. Non-division tests at home include San Francisco, Cincinnati, Baltimore and Green Bay but all-in-all, Atlanta has one of the more favorable schedules in the NFL.
Predicted Finish: 11-5
Other Overs to look at:Over 10 Green Bay Packers (+110)
This will be a popular pick. A quick start by the Packers is important as the schedule sets up for a possible 6-0 start before facing Minnesota. Predicted Finish: 11-5
Over 9 San Francisco 49ers (Even)
The 49ers have improved their win total each of the last three years and making it four straight is not out of the question when playing in the weakest division in the NFL. Predicted Finish: 10-6
What other NFL Futures look good to go over?Matt Fargo is a Professional handicapper at Covers Experts, where “We only make money when you do”.