We are down to the last quarter of the NFL season which is hard to believe in itself. Once again, it is absolutely wide open on which teams are heading to the playoffs and which teams have the best chances to win the Super Bowl.
At the start of the preseason in my 7/29 blog I recommended a futures play on Atlanta (+2000) to win the Super Bowl. The Falcons are currently +600 so playing it early was a huge value play and at this point would be a great win. I still do not know if Atlanta has what it takes.
I also recommended the Bengals (+5000). Do they still have a shot?
Let’s take a look at a couple betting scenarios as we wind down the season.
To Win the AFC South:
Jacksonville -195
Indianapolis +120
Even though the Colts are a game back, I think they still have the best chance to win the division. They need to win tonight against the Titans obviously and their two remaining divisional games are both at home against Jacksonville and Tennessee. The other game is at Oakland, another very winnable contest.
As for the Jaguars, they have to play in Indianapolis after facing Oakland this week, host Washington and then travel to Houston. This is a much tougher slate.
If the Colts win out and Jacksonville goes 3-1, both will be tied at 10-6. The head-to-head meetings would be split meaning the next tiebreaker is divisional record and that would also be tied at 4-2. The next tiebreaker is record in common games and the Colts would win that tiebreaker 7-5 to 6-6.
Indianapolis going 4-0 in its last four games won’t be easy with the recent rut it has been in but it is more than possible.
Indianapolis +120 to win the AFC South
To Win the AFC North
Pittsburgh -430
Baltimore +235
The Steelers win over the Ravens Sunday night was a huge one for obvious reasons. They evened the season series which is the first tiebreaker and with the remaining schedule, Pittsburgh is in excellent shape not to give up its one-game lead.
The Steelers next three games are at home as they face Cincinnati, the Jets and Carolina and then close the season at Cleveland. They will be favored in all four games and I really do not see them losing any of those with the Jets game being the lone possible upset.
The Ravens have a tough game at Houston this week and then host New Orleans. Both are must wins but neither is going to be easy. Baltimore closes the season against the Bengals and Browns. It needs to go 4-0 and hope the Steelers slip up not once, but twice.
If Baltimore goes 4-0 and the Steelers finish 3-1 with the loss not coming against Cleveland or Cincinnati, it will not matter that both teams are 12-4 as the Steelers own the second tiebreaker with a 5-1 division record.
It is a juicy bet but one that is very solid.
Pittsburgh -430 to win the AFC North
Matt Fargo, who has a 60.6% winning percentage in the NFL this season, is a professional handicapper for Covers Experts where we win only if you win.