McAlpine's Blog

Handicapping

By McAlpine | View all Posts
Posted Friday, January 15, 2010 05:38 PM   5 comments
I have been betting on sports for over ten years. What I have learned is that there is no "system" or easy rules for winning. If there were, everyone would follow them; make a living betting on sports and quit their day jobs.

Handicapping sports is an intelligence test. You have to be able to evaluate intangibles such as back-to-back games; injuries; let-down situations; look - aheads, and team motivation.

Making money at sports betting is NOT about betting the stronger team and laying points. If that worked, everyone would quit their day job and handicap sports.

You have to immerse yourself in the sport. Watch an NBA game every night. Record the box scores from the day before EVERY DAY. You  have got to go to bed thinking about NBA games and wake up in the morning thinking about NBA games.

If you do that, you will train your mind to recognize good and bad situations. Your mind is a computer, and will process information in ways that you are not consciously aware of. When you look at the card for the day, good plays will just jump out at you. The best games I have ever bet required no handicapping. I looked at the line and I just knew that the line was wrong.

For more information on this mental process, read "Blink" by Malcom Gladwell.

Read the Forum for information, but don't tail the most popular posters. That is NOT a successful betting strategy.

Follow your own light, and play "within yourself." Don't guess.

Cheers.


5 comments
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stevenp says:
05/21/10 02:01PM
I've been doing pretty much what you wrote above and after five years of practice and maintaining meticulous record, I've won money betting nba hoops the past two years. Your above comment is perfect. I'll look up "Blink." I looked you up; cause of your intelligent blog post on game three of the Celtics-Orlando. I went light on the under. Prefer the Lakers in game three; buying three point to +6. Thanks for your thoughts. Allen Mathis, San Francisco
McAlpine says:
08/12/10 12:49PM
Read your post about 3 months after you posted. Sorry.

Thanks for your thoughts, and do read Blink. You'll love it.

Can't wait for the NBA season to start again. Should be a lot of fun.

kjthebaron says:
09/20/10 06:43PM
How come your not in the best avatar,i would have voted for you hands down.Well Good Luck,kjthebaron.Do you do any posts for NFL,hit me and well shoot the shit
McAlpine says:
12/19/10 10:40PM
I'm actually about to change to my Christmas Avatar. Having the same Avatar all the time is like reading the same Playboy magazine all the time. Variety is spice.
McAlpine says:
12/21/10 03:09PM
Hey, KJ, I don't handicap or bet the NFL anymore. Well, a few games maybe late in the season when I have a really good feel for the game. I hate the NFL. It's a bookies cash machine. My only two sports are NBA in the winter and baseball in the summer. Great games to bet because there are a lot of games, and you can find letdown situations every week. Actually I find baseball really boring, but can make money at it if I have patience and look for great motivational mismatches.

The same applies to the NBA. Handicapping on intangibles is the only way to beat the books. They hire very smart people and pay them well. I laugh my ass off when someone comes up with their own line that they think is better than the line the books put out. The way to beat the books is to bet intangibles; not statistics. The books do not know how to quantify intangibles (such as a letdown/look-ahead situation; roster changes; look-ahead situations by good teams playing a nuisance game against a lesser opponent.....

I also like betting the better MLB team that is down 0-2 in a 3-game series. It's another motivational play.

Cheers!

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User: McAlpine
Joined: December 2006
Location: Colorado
Team: Denver Nuggets
Occupation: Recreation

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