Meathook13's Blog

2nd round betting strategy

By Meathook13 | View all Posts
Posted Saturday, March 20, 2010 09:41 AM   7 comments
Morning,

I wanted to get some opinions on what is important to you when capping the 2nd round of this tournament.

It is a quick turnaround for these teams, but not as grueling as most of the conference tournaments that have teams playing 3 and 4 days in a row.  How important is depth in this situation? 

You are also playing against a team that you most likely haven't played in years, if ever.  Scouting becomes very important.  Now days, with the amount of information that is available, scouting is much tighter than years ago.  So Teams should know all about their opponent on film and on paper. 

The three constants I always give weight to are:  Rebounding, Turnovers and free throw attempts. 

I am just trying to get some ideas on what other factors you feel are important when capping tournament games in this situation. 

I am going to take another look at the early games and see if I can't come up with anything.

Thanks
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IamTHEbook says:
03/20/10 09:49AM
washington, nc state, wake forest buy a hook on all games. thank me later
Meathook13 says:
03/20/10 09:54AM
Thanks, but not what I am looking for.
Meathook13 says:
03/20/10 10:18AM
NOVA struggled as well.  I like this.  The fact that BYU and NOVA struggled is fresh in the bettors mind.  Maybe a little value in this situation.

If NOVA shows up today they win by 10.  But that has been a big IF the past few weeks.
yankees2k6 says:
03/20/10 10:30AM

How did BYU play bad, they havent won a ncaa tourny game in the last 8 tries, they beat a well coached Fla team, they shot almost 50% frin the field, near 80% at FT line and 43% from 3 point range .... Obviously there defense needs some work but double OT  ultimatley leads to higher points....

Nova is a better example along with  Baylor and NM

 

Meathook13 says:
03/20/10 10:53AM
I love Baylor's zone defense today.  I think they show what they can do today by double digits.
53percent says:
03/20/10 10:55AM
baylors 2-3 zone is taylor made to stop this odu weak perimiter shooting team, that is the matchup to exploit round 1
Justice23 says:
03/20/10 11:09AM

Three point proficiency -vs- an opponent's defense of the three; BYU lives and dies by the three, yet KSU does not mind launch from deep a lot either where both are respectable guarding their opponent but shaky at times.

Pace of play (number of possessions) -vs- opponent's style: WF and Kentucky better tighten up the laces because the first to 80 wins...this total is incredibly way too low, o144!

Agree with the FT aspect: teams with distinct advantages (own at least a 5% over opponent) are Butler, OHIO, BYU, Washington. Will any be fortunate enough to have a lead late?

O/U considerations:

Murray/Butler u128.5; Murray has been a dog three times this year, the following game, each time they've gone under the posted total; in terms of pace of play, Murray is the Horizon equivalent of Loyola-IL (apologies to the Racers)...both of those games stayed under. Get ready for a 55-54 game here.

OHIO/Tenn 1H u64.5 (OHIO 1H's are o/u 9ov/9un and Tenn 7ov/11un if faced with a number in their respective road/neutral floor games)...although OHIO is 6ov/4un in their next lines total game when eclipsing the posted total by 15 points or greater; Tenn on the other hand is 5ov/7un in the following game when the posted total rises from the previous game's lined total, e.g. 136 goes under, next game 141.

ATS (recent trends):

Kansas St -4 (BYU 1-3 as a dog this year); OHIO +8 (7-1 L8 as a dog); Baylor -4.5 (The Bears are 5-1 following a non cover as favorite in their previous game...most absurd trend but it looks weird for hitting so frequently...ODU is only 2-7 SU and ATS as a dog this year; really surprised they were lined this many times); gut feeling Nova -4.5 as I really see this as an overreaction to the Cats recent play, Corey Fisher should have a big play.

Hope this helps...maybe not though. GL with the plays. 

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User: Meathook13
Joined: February 2009
Location: Illinois
Team: Chicago Bears
Occupation: Sales/Marketing

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