Michfan15's Blog

Posted Tuesday, September 20, 2016 01:19 AM

Week 3 Recap/Thoughts

Just to recap a few of the games and lines.  Understanding why certain lines were made and how the games played out is useful and can be beneficial to incorporate into our capping.  Anyway here a few things that stuck out to me, feel free to add your thoughts as well:
Baylor -33.5 @ Rice...Final Baylor 38-10
Baylor starting the season 0-3 ats, definitely surprising to some including myself.  I thought this would be a team that would somewhat fly under the radar after the Briles firing and come out crushing people.  Very sloppy play through their first 3 games.  Could set up a nice buy-low over the next few games...
OSU @ Oklahoma +2...Final OSU 45-24
One of the games I lost this week by simply overthinking it.  OSU seemed like the public side and had a feeling Oklahoma would pull feed off the home crowd, pull some strings, and potentially stick it to Urban.  Well, one can only dream.  Should have hit this over HARD.  Only 60, you knew OSU would get theirs and if I thought Oklahoma could have pulled it out, they would have had to score at least 30.  OSU is just that good, no idea who is going to stop them.  Oklahoma will be a good buy-low team for the next few weeks.
Colo @Michigan -17.5 Final 28-45
Another slow start for UM but they amazingly end up winning by DD.  Speight is good but hes certainly not as incredible as everyone is making him out to be.  Mich made a few more plays, the D stepped... [More]

Posted Tuesday, February 16, 2016 12:21 PM

2015 in Review: Upsets, blow-outs, close-games, and others

CFB junkies- 
With the year long over, I wanted to start a thread to review the 2015 season and discuss specific games that stood out to you for one reason or another regarding ATS .  Whether it was an unexpected upset, big blowout, close win, game you had circled all season, etc.  Feel free to post the game and discuss.  
Reviewing these games, the spreads, which side you took (and why), and why the spread opened/closed where it did, can be valuable for refining our handicapping in order to have an even better 2016.  
Special shout to Bookieassassin for consistently writing the best NCAAFB spread every week.  I'll kick it off below....
9/26  Utah +10.5 @ OregonResult: Utah 62-20 
So Utah was 3-0 going into this game and absolutely killing it while Oregon was 2-1 (albeit the loss was a close one @ MSU), but the writing was on the wall that Oregon would likely have a down year.  
This line baffled me at the time and seemed too good to be true.  Oregon struggled vs Physical teams, Utah was a physical team, not sure what I'm missing here, but why is Utah +10?!  They   
I'm guessing Vegas was late in recognizing Oregon would struggle without Mariota, but they missed badly on this one.  Also possible they weren't giving Utah enough credit.  Regardless, that line was a real head scratcher, and goes to show "when it looks too good to be true, it probably is" doesn't necessarily imply a tr... [More]

Posted Tuesday, July 07, 2015 09:56 AM

NBA needs to abandon Conferences ASAP

The West is just way too stacked, its getting ridiculous at this point.  By keeping the current system, the NBA is doing a serious disservice to its fans by continuing to leave good teams out of the playoffs simply because they are in the West where it is much more competitive.  Would be a very simple change- seed teams based on record regardless of conference and set up a 16 team bracket (1v16, 2v15, etc.)

What is the downside?  Other than certain east/west- specific records and statistics being disregarded, I don't really see one.  Really will suck if good teams like the Thunder continue to miss the playoffs in favor of mediocre teams like Charlotte or the Magic just because they are in the East.  Downside seems rather limited compared to the potential of this change.  Silver needs to make a move.

Posted Monday, June 29, 2015 02:09 PM

Tipping on winning picks/advice

Just an idea but I think it would be cool for Covers to allow members a link in his/her profile to a PayPal or Venmo account for others to tip or send some $ if the user provides the forum with valuable info that leads to winning plays.  There have been plenty of times I've read some good threads and would be happy to send some $ I've won to the OP who started a thread or made a valuable post.  Tipping would obviously be discretionary and I think it could only benefit the site, possibly leading to more informative posting and less bittching/whining as well.  Everyone on here is looking to exchange information/ideas/content about sports betting anyway, why not share the wealth...

Posted Saturday, August 16, 2014 10:00 AM

App st bettors

Offering 50/1 on app st ml for any takers

20/1 +14.5

Let me know.  Open to everything

Happy season

Posted Wednesday, October 30, 2013 11:49 AM

took it in a** last night from the NBA Opening - tips and points

Pacers -12.5….blow a 19 point lead up 13 with 20 seconds left moe harkless meaningless three pacer win by 10 LOSER!!

Clippers -2.5 first q…up 4with a min left and the ball somehow blow that win fq 30-28 LOSER!!!!

Clippers Team total over 105.5….score 103  LOSER!!!

too disgusted to look at lines but heres some tips/info some of you may find helpful:

-ONLY Bet FQ/FH if there is some underlying motivation/reason for a team to get up and come out of the gates running.  As noted with Pacers, the magic were able hang around in the FH and even led by 4 at halftime until the wheels fell off 2H.  Taking the better team FH or FQ gets you burned more often than not unless you find some type of motivational angle for said team to come out flying.   Its easy to get suckered into playing FH’s since the # is lower, but play the full-game so you allow the disparity of talent to be shown in the final score.   

On another note: Home teams getting points on the FQ line (LAL +3) could be good plays.
--Season record for this angle is 1-0


·In-game and Second Half betting have PLENTY of opportunity.  My only winning bets last night were:

Pacers -10 2h

  *Down by 4 at halftime taking the pacers -10 made them only -6 on the game.  I knew Vogel was going to make 2nd H adjustments on defense and the wheels would likely fall off for Orlando which happened.

LAL/LAC in-ga... [More]

Posted Thursday, March 28, 2013 06:26 PM

march madness - S16

MM: 12-5
all sports: 105-72

indiana ml/miami ml parlay


1st rd: mich ml/miami ml/st louis ml/mich st ml/wisco ml

Michigan will make S16…W

Illinos ml v colo…W

Nova +6 v UNC…L

2h Arizona -2 v Harvard…W

2h Oregon/STL over 67…W

Arizona live -22.5 v Harvard…W

1h Indiana -7 v Tem….L

Indiana -12 v Tem….L

2h Indiana -8.5 v Tem…W

Indiana live -3.5 v Tem…W

Indiana live -2 v Tem…W

Fla gulf cosast +7.5 v SDSU…W

Illini/ Miami u 127.5…W

Duke/Kansas ml parlay…W

Kansas live -3 v UNC…W

Duke/crei over 126.5 live…L

Posted Thursday, September 06, 2012 12:09 AM

1st year coaches in their 1st game ATS

9-7 overall since 07 with the breakdown below....pretty interesting data to look at. 
Few takeaways: -Obviously being an experienced coach coming from another team helps.-some lines are grossly inaccurate (pete carroll in 2010, rex ryan in 09, mike smith in 08)-must consider the situation a coach is walking into certainly helped mike tomlin, norv turner, both harbaugh brothers

What it means:
This sunday we have 6 situations, all 6 are underdogs so it seems vegas has learned their lesson from 2011 when all but 1 1st year coach was a favorite in game 1.  That being said:
Pagano for the Colts (+9.5 @ chi)ROokie QB who I actually think is good, but facing a tough defense on the road + a coach who has never been head coach before = disaster.  I see a good opportunity for DD bears win at home, with a rejuvenated offense and a major coaching advantage.  which doesn't happen often for lovie smith. 
Mularkey for Jax (+4.5 @ Minn)Don't like this Jacksonville team at all.  Road game, with a 2nd year QB who is pretty awful.  Jared Allen and a competent defense and tough, loud environment should not boad well here for the Jags.  Mularkey coached the bills in 04 and stared 0-4 before finishing 9-7 so he does have some HC experience.  Lean minnesota here but tough call. 
Philbin for Mia (+10.5 @ Hou)Hard knocks exposure is prob. why this spread is so high.  Dolphins have looked awful this preseason and Tannehi... [More]

Posted Saturday, September 01, 2012 11:43 AM

Penn St

This line seems like an absolute joke.  -7.  Was speaking to a friend last shes fucking one of the players on the team he was texting her last night saying how pumped they were and all this shit.  Happy Valley going to be rocking today nittney lions win by 20.  Forget about Sandusky n let's make some money

10u penn st -7

0-0 record 

Posted Monday, July 23, 2012 11:55 AM

Which NFL team is going to be the worst this year?

Every year has that one team where everything just goes wrong and they never get it together.  From the players, to the coaching staff, to management, or just simply having a difficult schedule.  A combination of the any of the above factors always leads to one, sometimes two teams just being absolutely dreadful.  Who do we think is going to fill the role in 2012?  Take a look at the past:
2011: colts/rams 2-142010: panthers 2-142009: lions 2-14 rams 1-152008: lions 0-162007: dolphins 1-152006: raiders 2-142005: texans 2-142004:49ers 2-142003: nyg/raiders/chargers/cards 4-122002: bengals 2-142001: panthers 1-15 / lions 2-14

scary to see that on paper. every year since 2001 has had a team go 2-14 or worse except in 2003. 
Now the million dollar question, whos going to be the nfl 2012 cash fade?
New head coach, new OC, (Mularkey and bob Bratkowski)  Inexperienced and unskilled QB.  No real recieving threats.  A pissed off MJD who knows how much longer he can carry this team on his back?  an actually mediocre defense is their only bright spot aside from MJD.
Problem is, their schedule is actually not too difficult so i can see a 4-12 season being feasible.
OTher teams off the top of my head that seem to be in the decline or ready to hit rock bottom:
Cardinals, Vikings (pending peterson status), Dolphins
interestd in hearing your thoughts as well... [More]

Posted Monday, July 09, 2012 11:29 PM

Pound the Dog


really interesting points here - wonder how it translates to the sports betting world.  Gladwell says in wars over the last 400 years between two countries, one being at least 10x bigger population- wise than the 2nd country, the smaller country or "underdog" still wins the war 30-40% of the time.  

Same principal can be seen in baseball where even the worst teams still win 30-40% of their games.  Would be interesting to see the #s in other sports as well.

Bottom line the underdog wins more than the public thinks- somewhat justifies playing large underdog money lines more frequently in my opinion.

Posted Wednesday, May 23, 2012 03:51 PM

Very confident about this play

Its no secret the Yankees have been struggling offensively.  Averaging only 2.25 runs in their last 8 games.  Tonight I think that changes.  Big game before their day off and before a big western road trip. 
Although Will Smith is making his first career start in the majors tonight and its known the Yanks have problems hitting pitchers they see for the first time, I think tonight is a different scenario since they are not usually struggling this badly from the plate.  Smith isn't exactly a highly touted prospect and his AAA numbers are far from spectacular.  53 hits 16 walks and only 37 K's with an ERA of over 4 in 50 IP or so.  
I think starting this guy tonight will be equivalent to throwing a big chunk of juicy meat to pack of hungry wolves.  Not a big fan of laying -200 + juice but I will be taking the Yankees -1.5  -2.5 and TT over 5.  
Parlaying the yankees ML with over 9 may also be playable but risky as a 6-1 type win is certainly possible if pettitte pitches well tonight.
They Royals swag and confidence is WAY too high calling Paulino the Yankee eater and having Hochevar look like a stud last night.  Yanks need to crush this game and crush this rookie hard which is exactly what Girardi is telling his boys before tonight.  Haven't been this confident with a Yankee game since making a fat play on Kuroda at the home opener.
Sucks to be Will Smith tonight (not the actor) as I'm sure he may be a ve... [More]

Posted Monday, May 14, 2012 02:10 PM

Over in devils rags

4.5is the # I'm seeing with -130 on the over. Seems like this # is skewed a bit after watching the rags play lots of defensive low scoring hockey. Lots of tension between these two teams can lead to penalties and over aggressive plays which in turn can lead to goals. 

Time to take advantage of the low number here as the rest of the series should have the total at 5 or 5.5. I know how good lundy and brodeur are but Vegas is well aware of their talent as well. 

Can't pick a side but will crack a buncg of Goose Islands and enjoy a high scoring game with some fights 

Posted Thursday, January 05, 2012 07:33 AM

Wild One in the Big Easy

From handjobs to handgrenades to Hurricanes Pat O'Brien's....what a fucking weekend.

Drove down to Nawleans from Ann Arbor and just returned.   Unbelievable win for us.

Best of luck and Happy 2012 to all Covers brothers

-An elated MICHFAN15

Posted Thursday, December 02, 2010 01:28 AM

anyone see this EASY money yesterday ????

I'll be honest, I didn't put this in, talked about it with a friend for too long and missed the chance to pull trigger......got back to my apt little before 1130, ripped some bing, prayed for some games to be at halftime and started cappin'

Saw pepperdine down 16 -27 to Pacific

hmmmmm 16 is a real low amount to score in a Half

ok pepperdine getting 4.

dont know shit about pepperdine other than its a malibu country club

im going to hope for their coach's job sake that they surely average well over 32 pts a game....

look it up,...70 pts a game, now were fucking talking

regression to the mean.....

check the schedule make sure no outliers,

ok dropped 69 IN UCLA, dropped 76 IN NEVADA.... the average is legit

ok so they average 70, have 16 at halfitme, and they are GETTING 4 points.


2nd Half score:  Pepperdine 54 

                        Pacific        33


Posted Tuesday, November 23, 2010 04:15 AM

Started Betting in Untis

Great move.. helped me become much more organized and prevents me from chasing too much and controling my wagers...Doing pretty well up a little over 20 units the first 11 days.

Totals (11/11 – 11/22):


+76.5u  – 54.72u = + 21.78 units


UCONN +6 (4u)

UCONN ML +200 (1u)

Ravens/Falcons over 43 (1u)

Warriors/Bulls under 213.5 (1u)


Boise st. -34.5 (2u)

Boise St. -21 1st H (1u)

Boise St. -7.5 1st Q (1u)

Boise St. / Idaho over 14 1st Q (1u)

Kings/Suns over 215.5 (1u)


Rutgers +3 (-130 buy ½) (1u)

Rutgers +120 (1u)

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Posted Wednesday, June 02, 2010 10:20 AM

Everyone stop with such vague topic headings - I LIKE BREWERS + KC

Brewers only -110 with Gallardo?  Marlins been playing well but i think brewers take this one, marlins due for a loss.  I guess Brewers should be a bigger underdog but for -110 ill be playing them or at least 1st 5 inn. cause bullpen is shakey

KC looks good because VegasMaxx is playing them and he is someone that I consider a knowledgable capper....

Furthermore, when 5000 people make their post WEDS PICKS or 6/2 PICKS, why the fuck would anyone click each one and scroll through it.  Put your picks in the topic heading and people who also agree and/or disagree with your post heading are more likely to click and see what you are thinking.  These general headings are fucking annoying and do not help me see others opinions and does not help you garner clicks for your thread.  

Posted Tuesday, February 23, 2010 02:25 PM

Good Strategies for hitting middles in basketball

Say you want bet basketball (Pro or college) betting only spreads you can middle to ensure either double profit or just a loss of juice.  (I.E. I bet Celtics -3 vs. Lakers then when the spread moves, bet Lakers +5, hoping for a celtic 4 point victory).  What books are best for doing this at?  My local takes spreads from bodog except bodog's spreads come out much later than other books.  Are there any good tips or strategies for seeing where big money comes in and which way spreads move or does that come naturally with more betting experience? 

What I have been doing is checking the spreads as soon as they are released on Pinnacle and seeing if they vary much from bodog or sportsbook's spreads since Pinnacle often has a sharper line.  I find this method is pretty inconsistent and I do not get great results.  However, this method works well in NCAA Football.  Any tips for basketball middling?  Thanks

Posted Thursday, February 18, 2010 03:28 PM

NFL- New Pro Bowl Idea....

 I had an idea today about how to fix the Pro Bowl.  Currently the Pro Bowl is a very under-viewed event and for the most part is a disappointment to most NFL fans.  Although this year the game was better than it had been in recent years, and was moved to the week before the Super Bowl for the first time ever, I feel like there can still be an improvement to this game.  It is very surprising that the best players in the most popular of the big four sports does not get the viewers it should.  My proposal is to hold the Pro Bowl game at the start of the next season.  Thus, the players nominated to the Pro Bowl for the 2009-2010 season will play the game at the commencement of the 2010-2011 season.  There are several reasons why this could work.

                By the end of August and early September, football fans are dying for football.  With the season opening game traditionally on a Thursday, making the Pro Bowl two days before on a Tuesday would be a great introduction to the season.  In addition, the ratings would be very high making it an attractive opportunity for advertisers and making the league money.  Another possibility, which I am sure has been discussed is giving players and or teams incentives to actually try in the game.  This can be in the form of monetary ince... [More]

Posted Wednesday, February 17, 2010 06:17 PM


Never too early to start looking for that good value.  Here some teams I like to do work next year, worth putting a small play on.  Sure these are long shots, but reasonable in my opinion-anything can happen...

Houston Texas 32/1

-They have a solid team, a great offense and an improving D.  With another year of Schaub improving, this team is legitimately one good player away from making a run.  Colts are clearly on their way down, Jax blows, Tenn is inconsistant, as a result Texans winning the AFC south isn't impossible.  Giving Kubiak an extention is also a good thing to hear, showing their confidence in him.


Panthers 40/1

Incredible running game, doubt they can hold onto Peppers read that the PATs are interested in Peppers., but they have a solid defense, and John Fox is a great coach.  It says alot to stay as the panthers head coach when he could have gone to NY to be Defensive Coordinator.  If they can find a better QB than Moore, this team could do it.

As much as I hate to admit it as a Jet:

Dolphins 35/1

They played a bunch of great games this season.  Almost beath both the Colts AND the Saints.  Bill Parcelles knows what hes doing and they are making moves.  This year can be hugeif they land a big WR.  Henne is a solid QB


Just some early thoughts....

Posted Tuesday, February 16, 2010 09:27 PM

Honestly, bet your house on this parlay - IT WONT LOSE


Avatar to win best picture at the Oscars and James Cameron to win best director

Pays: 10 grand to win 13 grand

Dooooooooo it

Posted Thursday, January 28, 2010 11:45 AM

Super Bowl Props- Early thoughts, prediction, analysis

It was announced that the Super bowl props are going to be announced tomorrow (Thurs 1/28, Bodog). That means since the SB line came out Sunday, LVSC has been in their little room plotting and coming up with these odds and numbers.  Now is great time to guess what Vegas might up come with, find value, and hop on an early, possibly inaccurate lines. 

Being that there are so many prop bets, and Vegas has been taking a few days to think of these props, there will be several opportunities available. 

Betting props has been pretty lucrative for me this season and is a great opportunity to make money since the general public mostly just cares about the game spread. These are my predictions of what the props will be, and what could be undervalued. 

Keep in mind, I’m writing this before the props come out so these are just MY PREDICTIONS for what the actual numbers will be.

First Quarter:  O/u 13.5  O (-120)

This isn’t really a prop, but I’ll start with it any way.  This number could be at 14 which would likely lower odds to (-110).  Regardless, I think this Super bowl will be similar to the packers/pats in ’97 (might have been ’96) with one of the highest scoring first quarters in Super bowl history.  This game has the making to be a similar game.  Colts can get out early and score, so can the saints.  Both teams are also equally likely to display poor defense.  Worst... [More]

Posted Friday, January 01, 2010 10:08 PM

Teasers: Sucker bets or Advantageous to a sharp bettor?

What do you think?

Posted Sunday, September 13, 2009 04:09 AM


YEAR 1   0-0   These are my picks for this week. Post what you think or if you agree or disagree with any picks.  I don't do units and all that shit, do that yourself- i just keep my record and give the pick...   FALCONS -4...Faclons at home opening week, crowds going to go nuts,  Falcons typically play well at home,  I have much more faith in Matt Ryan than Chad Pennington.  The dolphins are a good football team but their record last year is not a good indication.  They had a joke of a schedule.  They have no real good WRS, ted ginn?  fasano ? no one really solid to scare the falcons.  They have Ronnie Brown whos mediocre but still not a big threat.     I think turner, roddy white, also now Tony G. are just going to romp the fact that this game is only -4 is nothing, Falcons are going to blow this game open, turner will score 2 touchdowns, tony g will get his fair share of looks.  At home, ton of offense tomorrow im going to guess this final will be 35-10   I think its dumb to play every game every week, you have to find one or two solid picks a week.  Again its only week 1 and anything is possible.    Patriots -5 and Chargers- 4 TEASER   I just cannot see this play losing.   The Patriots are in a league of their own its just crazy how ridiculous their offense is.  Brady will come out throwing the bills just will not have a chance... [More]

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