MoneyShot's Blog

Reasons why Brock's line is going down....

By MoneyShot | View all Posts
Posted Saturday, July 03, 2010 09:05 AM   17 comments

A lot of people are asking why it went from around -180/-200 to now like -120...  Ill give the coles notes version of why and i might be leaving out some stuff but very quickly a list. 

A) Brocks long layoff

B) Brock was very sick, lot of critics are wondering if he will come back strong from it. 

C) Brock lost a lot of weight, a shitload, people are unsure what this will do.  He could be faster but he could loose a lot of strength and that is what he does best which is bully smaller opponents but Carwin is apparently as big weight wise as Brock.

So pretty much those are the main reasons why brocks line has gone down that i know of.  Of course a bit goes to Carwins hype whether warranted or not.

And before some of you jump on what im saying, these arent all based on my opinion. This shit is coming from what ive read or from what i have seen on TV in interviews and such...

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2169 says:
07/03/10 10:04AM


This doesn't sound right, because if the total amount of money is on Brock then the ML should still be high. 
kaponofor3 says:
07/03/10 11:00AM
Brock is a beast. Bet against him at your own risk. He'll control this fight, stretch it out with his wrestling, and win once he gets Carwin gassed
sirchadwick1 says:
07/03/10 11:16AM
I think people are really overlooking Brock at his current health state.  In his latest interview he was talking about how he felt 100% and stronger than ever. I think Brock is an exception to the general layoff betting rule here, being a freak of nature.  He's still got the size advantage, even though he's lost some weight.  He's still faster.  His wrestling pedigree is better and I think he gets Carwin down a lot easier than most think - I'm talking within a minute in the 1st rd.  We will doubtfully see him at -140 again after he beats Shane.  Unless he fights Fedor.  I'm going with 3u on Brock and I feel pretty confident. 
scalabrine says:
07/03/10 12:58PM
I think anyone who has to address their state of health, and has to keep reiterating they are 100%, is < 100% most likely. And even if Brock was 100%, I still think he'd have a hard time winning this fight. 

The obvious points made in this thread are the most legitimate:

1) Ring rust
2) Traumatic life-threatening experience
3) Brock's state of health

I also think, given Brock literally almost died, he sees more to life than simply being a dominant UFC champion. He did just pick and and leave the WWE after all. He's the type of guy who looks like he gets bored and/or disinterested easily. Hence, there is a motivational factor, albeit a small one, coming into play.

Carwin over Brock is like Germany over Argentina today. Smart money with better than even odds to boot.

Despite the bet, I will be rooting for Brock because it's good for pro wrestling if he ever decides to return (which I think he will obviously since the door is always open).

Still, it's hard to bet against a guy who can do this to other fighters : Link

 
THE-KID says:
07/03/10 01:23PM

I think Lesnar is foolish to take such a tough fight coming off a serious illness.  Carwin will want to keep it standing. I think he can avoid the takedowns, which will minimize Lesnar's offense.

Carwin by first round stoppage!

Soszynski by decision. Bonnar is done!

Wouldn't touch Leben/Akiyama. If Akiyama gets lulled into trading fists, Leben could pull off the upset. I root for Leben, and won on him last time out.  Not betting this fight!

GL fellas!

tlml1899 says:
07/03/10 03:56PM
Lets not forget line movement doesnt always mean anything. Pat Barry opened at +170 against Cro Cop and got bet clear to -185 and he lost.
MoneyShot says:
07/03/10 06:36PM

can u read? i never said he would look dead. i said he is lighter which is what HE actually said. From his own mouth he said he is eating more salads and less of the shitty foods and thus his weight is less.   Again, this is what HE said...

Mcmanus says:
07/03/10 06:43PM
On Sportsbetting.com I saw Brock at -120
Tough to say because of the Long Layoff what to expect though..Should be interesting
Goldfisch says:
07/03/10 06:51PM
I am going with Lesnar +120 tko ko or stoppage. He is too athletic and will wear down Carwin. I think the hype about Carwins punching power is real but just like in Boxing, you can avoid a power puncher if you have too. Lesnar. Honest
nwcrazy says:
07/03/10 07:13PM



See, that's where I think some folks may be underestimating Carwin's athleticism. The athleticism differential would be huge if Carwin was just some big guy who pumped iron and learned some mma skills without having played and excelled at sports at the collegiate level. BUT Carwin is a TRUE athlete too...who excelled in collegiate wrestling (NCAA II national champion) and football (linebacker). Do you realize how athletic, strong, and fast you have to be to excel at the linebacker position at the collegiate level? VERY.

In the cage, the difference in athleticism will be small. I guarantee it. You're not going to see the kind of athletic differential that you saw between, say Jon Joes and Bonnar.

My 2 cents.

 
rick3117 says:
07/03/10 07:31PM
Carwin is the play. 
rick3117 says:
07/03/10 07:34PM
Carwin
kaponofor3 says:
07/03/10 07:55PM
Line is back up to -140 at 5Dimes, late Lesnar money?
sirchadwick1 says:
07/04/10 12:27AM
Hope you guys got in on Brock!  I was biting my nails in the 1st rd and thought it was over.... but he weathered the storm and came back strong.  Wow, who would have called the sub?


tlml1899 says:
07/04/10 12:34AM
LESSSNARRRR
rick3117 says:
07/04/10 12:38AM
Good fight.
rick3117 says:
07/04/10 12:38AM
HE seemed pretty nice tonight, I may have to change my avatar now.
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