We all know the Cavs are advancing and after watching how easily the Hawks dismantled the Heat, i cant see the Heat winning a game 7 in Atlanta if it goes that far.
The Hawks impressed me huge last night. They have a very good team, not great, but they can present problems to a lot of teams. Last years series vs the Celts where they took the champs to 7 games has proven to give the Hawks a hunger and the experience to do some damage this years playoffs.
The Heat in game 1 show that they dont have a 2nd act behind Wade, Beasley is good but he is too young to carry any offensive load. The Heat just dont have enough pieces, very stagnant. The Hawks have more weapons, too athletic, too good at home.
So how big a fav will the Cavs be over the Hawks. I really think it will be more than it should be. Wouldn't surprise me if the Cavs are -700 to -900 around to beat the Hawks.
Looking at the matchups real quick:
1) PGs= Mo Will vs Bibby. This is pretty close. Bibby has unlimited playoff experience while Mo does not. Mo has been a great fit for the cavs this year and has really lifted them. Too close to call this one.
2) SG= Delonte West vs JJ. West is actually a bit underated but no doubt this goes to Joe Johnson who is one of the best SGs in the league.
3) LBJ vs Marvin Williams. Close one lol.
4) Varejao vs Josh Smith= Josh Smith, hopefully dominates Varejao. If he doesnt settle for too many outside shots. JS has so much talent its insane. Could be a great player in this league but relies too much on shooting jumpers which he did not do in game 1 vs heat which was amazing.
5) Big Z vs Horford= Going to give this one to Big Z even though its a lot closer than people probably think. I love Horford, strong athletic big man who will be an allstar in a couple years.
Bench, Coaching: Got to give the bench edge to Clev with Joe Smith, Wally who are vets who have been in the playoffs and know how to get it done. Pav is streaky and so is Gibby... With Atlanta, Flip Murray, Zaza, Mo Evans are decent role players but overall got to give the adv to clev with their experience.
As for coaching, hard to say really, Mike Brown has done a terrific job in Clev and has a chance to win Coach of the Year. At the same time, not a lot of people thought the Hawks would win almost 50 games this year. Woodson has improved in every season on the job, slight edge goes to Brown...
------Overall obviously Clev has the advantage cause of one man. LBJ is just so amazing, what more can you say, he is a one man wrecking crew who does it all. Atlanta has a lot of weapons though and have a pretty good balance of attack but and its a big but they will have to win every game at home and somehow sneak a win in Clev which we all know has been almost impossible this season. Only the Lakers won a road game in Clev ( i dont count the phily win cause Clev rested their main players)....
Im really curious to see what the Series price will be. I dont know if the value will be there but i will guarantee you i will be putting money on the Hawks to cover or even win a couple of those games cause no doubt the Spreads will over favor a Lebron lead team. The odds makers know how popular james is and they will overrate those spreads according to the public betting. They have to balance out the wagers and no doubt more people will be betting on Lebron/Cavs more than the Hawks.
Final Verdict--------For this series, the Hawks have a very small chance to win it, but they will be the correct team to wager on. They will make it closer than people think. When it comes to ATS, we know the public tilts the line, casual bettors come out for playoffs a lot too and people will stick money on Lebrons Cavs simply because the guy is an ICON, people that dont even know anything abou tthe NBA know about Lebron...
Anyways, Hawks for value....