MonsterMeyn's Blog

Betting against Public Perception

By MonsterMeyn | View all Posts
Posted Friday, December 07, 2012 02:28 AM   10 comments

Long time lurker here. I am not really going to start posting plays but betting angles instead. Here's one I found for tomorrow night.

When majority of the betting public cap games they usually go about like this: If Team A beats Team B, and Team B beats Team C, therefore Team A will beat Team C.

A prime example is the Boston @ Philadelphia game. Minnesota came to Philadelphia 3 days ago and floored the home team 105 to 88. The next day we saw a 104-94 win by Boston over the Timberwolves that isn't really as close as the final score would be. Now, Philadelphia hosts Boston as a one point home dog and people would think that Boston is the right play here. 60% of the consensus are on them as I type this.With a looming home-and-home series, I think the both home team will win in their respective games.

Anyway, like I said, public perception of a current team's strenght is usually based on their most recent outing. When a lot of people cap games, they try to find a commonality on both sides; ones they do, they try and use that. Perception should be the Celtics will beat the 76ers and the almost pick em of a line is a gift. I think otherwise. If there's anything, the play is against the Celtics.

 

Thoughts?

10 comments
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ThinkTwice says:
12/07/12 02:39AM
Looks like you are here to tell the old story. No one do that anymore. Thats 70's dude. Everyone is playing smart nowadays. Dont you ever think if you go against the public you will win. Thats just wrong. If you dont believe me, fade the public everyday, see if you come out positive.
abnormality says:
12/07/12 02:55AM


This is true, overthinking plays this way too often has been killer to some cappers. I also think its way too early yet to judge the %'s the sides are on yet. People could also see they have the same record, and Sixers have home court advantage here, and their not favored?

Remember this a big enough card with many other games, don't let %'s be too big a deal here. I think some cappers feel this way the day after where big standout games like Knicks vs Heat happen, and then these cappers fall victim yet again, by trying to hard to not make the same mistake they made the day just before.
MonsterMeyn says:
12/07/12 02:58AM

I'm not saying to bet against the Public always. That's some close-minded way of going about with things.

All I'm saying is to pick your spots.

jw11 says:
12/07/12 06:06AM

gotta love an intelligent thread like this (i hope i spellrd intelligent correctly)..........wish there were many more.

jw11

jw11 says:
12/07/12 06:07AM

wish i has spelled 'spelled' correctly...doah.

 

so much for that intelligent thread...sorry.

manutdfctts9899 says:
12/07/12 06:17AM
this is cool. I wish we can see more of this and work our brain to get the juice we wanted tomorrow
BOL guys
LukeFrawley says:
12/07/12 06:30PM
AGREE AGREE AGREE! the public is going to get 50% of there bets in even the heavily sided ones but this example of phi/bos sounds like it come true. Phi has a good record against bos and they came off a big game agaisnt chicago lost but covered then had a let down at home against minn. Young isnt playing and thats why line is screwy though. I still like phi. Bos has poopy chem right now. Go pacers to tonight!!
incendiary says:
12/08/12 06:21AM
Very valid argument to be made for how Vegas odds are not a measuring stick of how a team will perform against another... The more popular a general perception becomes, the more likely folks like us will place bets. Anyone's strategy to succeeding should incorporate psychology just as much as sports knowledge. And yes please ...to more intelligent threads like this.
ykmichael says:
12/08/12 11:25AM
One point home dog? The line is +6. No doubt that's attractive. PHI's a good team & they can cover that.
Gooey_911 says:
12/11/12 03:34PM
In short, the transitive property works in mathematics, but not in sports.
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