Lakers and a small play on the under (5/27)

No more report.

16.5 units on LAL -7.5
5.5 on UNDER 218.5
3.3 PARLAY to win 12
Lakers -7.5, UNDER 217 (yes it moved in the time it took me to lock in both bets)

Lakers and Under 5/23

Thought I locked in the Lakers ML earlier the week but I was mistaken and now the line is PK... for shame.

Parlayed the under with the Lakeshow as well and even threw in a little baseball action with the under and NYY -1.5 @-120 for 2 units.

Thank god for the Blackhawks!!!

This coaching matchup reminds me of...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CrbKn5boVPA&feature=related

I honestly don't know who is going to actually make adjustments. Boston has some veterans who will adjust on their own but Cleveland has Lebron drawing up plays for the coaches to "call."

I give the edge to Doc because Mike Brown's revelation of putting James on Rondo was moronic because Pierce started to put up points.

I am not playing a side tonight, but might play the over for a small play just to keep me interested.

BOL to all!!!

The Day after Mother's Day

Magic -5.5 (11)
Magic/Hawks UNDER 193.5 (5.5)
Lakers +3 (11)


Few things here- Magic line is already at 7.5 at betEd so hurry up. I am playing the Lakers and if they lose the game SU I am unloading on the LAL ML in game 5.

Magic -2 Tonight, call it logic

Small play as the under is my POD.

Everywhere I look I see "Lakers come back big after loss in playoffs"

WELL THE LAKERS SHOULD HAVE NEVER FUCKING LOST TO THE FUCKING JAZZ AND THE FUCKING ROCKETS(without Yao)!!!

These guys (The Magic) are not the Rockets and they are not the Jazz. They beat quality teams to get here. No KG, then how did Boston beat the Bulls and one of the best PGs in the league? Lebron has no options? This is true, but the Cavs are still a good team to some extent.

I like Orlando's recent success against LA, home court, and the Lakers' horrible road record in the Finals.

Thoughts on: Kobe, Derek Fisher, and Games 3 & 4

There are a lot of plays I like in game 4.

Let's get this out of the way first. Derek Fisher is 4 3 pt FG's shy of tying MJ for 2nd most in Finals history. Good for him, but I wouldn't get too excited over this. I don't think he is a Hall of Famer, and he has been playing too long. He hurt his team a lot in the Houston series and it is pretty easy to see why Jameer Nelson shredded the Lakers in the regular season. Fisher is too old. He can knock down a shot here and there, but he is not a complete player anymore. he had a good game 3, and people all of a suddne forgot how horrible he was in the first two rounds. While Jordan made 42 three pointers in 6 appearances, he also scored 33.6 PPG with 6 rebounds and 6 assists. Derek Fisher is nowhere near this.

Game 3 was a great game that came down to the last minute with both teams combining for 56% FG. Everyone is saying that the Magic ONLY won by 4 despite their record night. On the flip side of that coin, the Lakers got outshot like that and only lost by 4 so they deserve a lot of credit as well.

I like the 1Q under tonight because I don't think Kobe comes out the way he did in game 3. He said he was gassed in the 4th so I feel he needs to take a different approach and save some energy. I find it ridiculous that someone that is a professional athlete, let alone someone of his stature, got tired because of the way he started the game.

I also like the game under 202.5. The Magic are trying to get out an... [More]

Tonight's Refs Records

Joey Crawford
Lakers are:
7-3 SU (3-0)
5-5 ATS (3-0)

Magic are:
6-4 SU (2-1)
5-5 ATS (2-1)

Derrick Stafford
Lakers are:
7-3 SU (3-0)
5-5 ATS (3-0)

Magic are:
8-2 SU (3-0)
7-3 ATS (3-0)

Mark Wunderlich
Lakers are:
9-1 SU (2-1)
6-4 ATS (2-1)

Magic are:
6-4 SU (2-0)
7-3 ATS (2-0)


Post season records in parentheses.

Over is a combined 10-5 with line @ 195-204.5 with these knuckleheads.

Do with it what you please.

The Guy That Used to Coach the Knicks' Brother +6, UNDER 206

Magic +6
UNDER 206 POD

I think the line is just right for this one except the total. The public was big on the over all week and it didn't budge so I think books like where the money is at. Dropped half a point (finally) so I am all over it. I was all week, but this just helped me feel a little better.

Lakers ML is seeing a lot of action too @ -290. Magic win SU and books pay Magic plus points, magic ML, under bettors, and collect Lakers ML and over bettors (62% of public, a nice chunk of change)

This may come off as a conspiracy theory or whatever you want to call it, but I am trying this out tonight. Maybe not the best time to start something new in the finals. We will see.

I have cash to burn though because I am Cavs_Lover and Ice4Blood's bookie.


I'm gonna go play Chuck in these videogames till jump ball.

Magic +7.5 @ Cleveland Game 5

62% of public on Magic and the line doesn't move. Let's think about this from a books' side of things.

Right now I am getting a lot of heavy action on the Magic +7.5, BUT at the same time, a lot of people are loading up Cavs ML. Nobody has faith in the Cavs anymore to cover so let them hammer that ML @ -450 is it now? I am not worried about it, because the Magic will SU.

I will collect on all the Cavs ML wagers and pay out to all the Magic bettors, and more than likely, make money on this game.

Let's face it, the Magic are better. Sure, they have been shooting at a high percentage, but they don't need to to win. Dwight Howard is close to automatic points in the paint and the shooters will come around eventually.

MAGIC +7.5
MAGIC ML
Under 190

Western Conf. Finals game Numero 5

Nuggets +6 (small play)
Nuggets ML (small play)
Under 209.5

Don't really feel like this needs a write up. Still feeling great after hitting the magic last night. Lost the under but made money since the under was only a small play.

Nuggets have a good chance to steal one here. JR Smith seems like he has his confidence back. Even with Melo banged up they still won convincingly. I think Melo plays tonight unaffected by the injury.

I look around the forums and it seems almost everyone is on the under. Normally that bothers me a little, but the public is what got me to make this play. Roughly 64% on the over and the line is standing pat. Flinched for a second or two going down to 209.

Books are not going to pay out to 64% after getting killed on Magic MLs and the Magic in general, although a lot of money was made back last night after Ice4Blood loaded up on the Cavs, without knowing the line, as well as Cavs to win the series, title, and Stanley Cup (he thinks they are that good).

Eastern Conf. Finals game 4 (GOING TO CLEVELAND 3-1)

In all reality, this series should be over after this game, but Lebron made the ball go in. It was going to rim out, but he is so fucking good that he made it go in with his mind. Gimme a break.

Magic -1
OVER 189 (LEAN)

Cavs suck.

I want to stress this point as it cannot be stressed enough. EVERYBODY as well as Barbara Bush is calling for a split in Orlando. Mad Skillz said Cleveland will not lose both so if they lost today, load up on them tomorrow. This is good logic.

I bet the Magic in game 3 because they are better and I figure they can win the first one if there is a split. Tonight made it abundantly clear, just in case games 1 and 2 didn't, that the Magic are better.

That being said. I am going Magic AGAIN. Howard didn't play a lot and the Cavs still had no answer. Hedo goes 1-11 and Cavs have no answer.

I am torn on the total though. Maybe a no play. a 57 point 4th quarter and under by 1 point. In game 3 both teams shot a Derek Fisher like 24% from 3 (11-43) for 33 points. I think the Magic, if not both can step this up a little.

The conundrum lies in whether or not a 57 point 4th makes up for this. I think no. If they can go 20-45 or even 20-50 I think that more than covers this and the over hits. Also consider that this is an elimination game though and how many FT's there were in game 3. 65-84

Those usually go under. Plenty of time to think this over though.

I am drunk.
... [More]

NBA MEMORIAL DAY 5/25

Birdman -4.5
UNDER 208.5

The total is an easy play. Majority on the over, open at 211 and down to 208.5

That is the first (and only) sign you should need. Only thing that makes this game go over is the refs (Joey Crawford) or one (1) erratic quarter. Cavs game went over the other day with Lebron's un-clutch 3 when in all reality it should have been under with the exception of a ridiculous 1Q.

On to the Nuggets.

3.5 pt favorites on Saturday and they lose SU so the line goes UP to 5???? Good sign so far, but let's break down the stats:

KEEP IN MIND THAT THE NUGGETS WERE UP 8 GOING INTO THE 4TH QUARTER

Carmelo Anthony, SF374-131-712-1405533046-321Kenyon Martin, PF353-100-00-025710216-76Nene, C315-90-03-415611015-213Dahntay Jones, SG174-60-02-211211005-210Chauncey Billups, PG405-152-76-706672041-118FGM-A J.R. Smith, SG264-152-100-021361014-510Chris Andersen, FC246-90-03-425700302-615Anthony Carter, PG150... [More]

Nuggets/Lakers line movement already

Opened at 211 and now it is 208.5 with a 55% majority on the over.

hmmmmmmmmm

Cleveland @ Orlando GAME 3

Magicians -1.5



Despite picking the Magic, there will be none in this game. No tricks, no mirrors, no smoke. The better team will win. Worst case scenario they split at home. Hope this one hits and maybe take Cavs in game 4 depending on how they play. The 3's drop tonight for the Magic. Lebron's 50 couldn't do it in game 1 and he made a once in a series type of shot in game 2. He will not get the chance to do that tonight. Mo Williams is struggling with open shots (who doesn't?) as is West. Both are trying their best to get Phil Jackson and the Lakers to notice so they can replace Fisher as the guy who used to hit shots. Dwight Howard goes off for another 30 and 15 and Magic roll.

Not going big on Magic as I think we all know the real money will be in game 4 because most people see a split in Orlando.

Also leaning UNDER 190 as a POD.
Sunday games are usually under, but this is a night game. Might not have that lazy lay around fix my hangover feeling. Also considering 1Q under.

Friday Saturday Games

Friday First

Magicians +9

The Nuggets get an ATS victory and game and get 1 less point in game 2 and win SU. Magic win by 1 in game 1 and are getting same points in game 2? I think the books are giving the Cavs and Mike Brown too much credit. Who is going to step up next to LBJ? Someone else said it, don't remember who, but let L23 score all he wants because no one else will.

Total Lean UNDER late play or no play

Saturday

Nuggets -3.5 POD
UNDER 211

Nuggets roll at home. They roll so much that the Lakers don't score 100. 110-97. In Denver anyone and everyone gets hot at one point or another. The Lakers struggle on the road against Houston, I know they are good, but they didn't look so hot in Utah either and Denver is even more hostile than Utah. Lakers implode in this one.

Nuggets @ LAL Thursday Game 2

I am jumping on this because the line came out at 6 and it has already dropped to 5 in some places. Most are still at 5.5 though.

Nuggets +6

Write up coming soon as I am still thinking about the o/u. Leaning UNDER again.

Magic/Cavs Game 1

So so last night. Hit the under but not the spread. Made up for it with a teaser Lakers -2.5 and under 219.5 so call it 2-1.

Orlando +9
UNDER 184.5 POD

HEAD TO HEAD

Magic are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland. Magic are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland.Magic have the Cavs number this year and this line is just way too big for a team that won 2 of 3. The only loss was in Cleveland by 3 or 4 and the Magic were getting six then. The Cavs and Nuggets are yet to lose ATS this post season but I think Orlando is the first real team either has faced to this point. I see Dwight Howard causing problems for the Cavs. Z will have to make jumpers  to bring howard out of the paint and I don't see him doing that in game 1. Van Gundy and the Magic had great D in game 7 trapping Paula Pierce and shutting him down. I think the Magic can and will do this against Lebron with similar, but not necessarily, with the exact same success. This line might drop so I am taking the 9 now. Also considering buying 3 half points or teasing it to +13 and under 188.5.

The under is an obvious play if you are not an overthinker and I am not surprised more people aren't on it. There have been some easy picks this post season that a lot of people overthought and lost money on. This looks like it could be one of them.

Under is 4-0... [More]

MAGIC/CAVS GAME 1

So so last night. Hit the under but not the spread. Made up for it with a teaser Lakers -2.5 and under 219.5 so call it 2-1.

Orlando +9
UNDER 184.5 POD

HEAD TO HEAD
Magic are 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland. Magic are 10-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Cleveland.Magic have the Cavs number this year and this line is just way too big for a team that won 2 of 3. The only loss was in Cleveland by 3 or 4 and the Magic were getting six then. The Cavs and Nuggets are yet to lose ATS this post season but I think Orlando is the first real team either has faced to this point. I see Dwight Howard causing problems for the Cavs. Z will have to make jumpers  to bring howard out of the paint and I don't see him doing that in game 1. Van Gundy and the Magic had great D in game 7 trapping Paula Pierce and shutting him down. I think the Magic can and will do this against Lebron with similar, but not necessarily, with the exact same success. This line might drop so I am taking the 9 now. Also considering buying 3 half points or teasing it to +13 and under 188.5.

The under is an obvious play if you are not an overthinker and I am not surprised more people aren't on it. There have been some easy picks this post season that a lot of people overthought and lost money on. This... [More]

Celtics/Magic Game 7

This line isn't high and that's why I am on the Magic. The line was high in game 6 and a lot of people lost money on the C's. It's almost the same scenario, but in Boston. I think this line is eerily low and the C's can't cover and/or lose SU. Only a small play though as it looks like the Lakers and the under are gonna hit it big for me.

And I do think the all the C's franchise trends are pointless because we did see the Hawks win on the road in the playoffs this year and a lot of people were throwing that around in that series and taking the Heat at home. The Bulls have a terrible record in game 7's but 6 titles. Jordan didn't play in many game 7's because he didn't have to. If the Jazz took Jordan to game 7 in Chicago would you bet against the Bulls based on their bad record? Neither would I.


And if you're paranoid, David Stern would prefer the ratings just as much if not more if two of the best young stars in the game faced off in Howard and James so he has the fix in for the Magic to pull this one out.

MAGIC +3
MAGIC ML
UNDER 186.5

Bigger play on the under though due to trends and line movement as it opened at 189 with a slight majority on the over (51%). Small play on the lines.

Under is 4-1 in Magic last 5 games as a road underdog of 0.5-4.5. Under is 4-1 in Magic last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Under i... [More]