After betting against Cliff Lee twice in the month of June, I finally smartened up last week and sent it on the Phillies -1.5 +175 the night Lee shutout the Red Sox, 5-0. With that latest masterpiece, Cliff Lee completed one of the greatest months any starting pitcher has ever submitted. Check it out:
21 hits allowed in 42 innings pitched
28 strikeouts/7 walks
0.21 ERA (he gave up one lonely run for the whole month!)
5 wins 0 losses
32 consecutive shutout innings
3 straight shutouts
That's not human. Who in their right mind would dare bet against this man right now? Well, maybe me. I had the Jays yesterday +160 and +1.5 -105, and it wasn't exactly a confidence-inspiring performance, but I think the time may be ripe for Lee to go out and have himself a terrible outing.
Prior to his June 22nd start in St. Louis, I noticed something about Lee's pitch counts this season. From April 25th to May 6th, Lee threw a total of 332 pitches in three starts. In his next start, going on 4 days rest, Lee was so-so, lasting just 6 innings and 82 pitches while giving up 7 hits and 3 earned runs to the Marlins. In his next three starts after that, Lee threw a ridiculous total of 356 pitches! That seemed to catch up to him in his next start, which took place on May 31st in Washington. Again going on 4 days rest, Lee got shelled by the Nationals, allowing 7 hits, 3 walks, and 6 earned runs before getting knocked out in the 6th inning of a 10-2 loss.
Then came the month of June. The first three victims were the Dodgers, Cubs, and Marlins. Lee threw 347 pitches in beating them all. That's where I decided to try and fade him off of three straight taxing starts. Lee was scheduled to pitch June 22nd in St. Louis, and was a -150 favorite against the Pujols-less Cardinals. The one thing I didn't like about the situation, though, was that Lee was going on 5 days rest instead of 4. I decided to plow ahead with my Lee fade anyway, taking the Cards +145. Big mistake. Instead of sputtering, Lee used the extra day of rest to his advantage and went 9 innings in shutting out the Deadbirds on a whopping 126 pitches. I felt shame.
So, I looked ahead to Lee's next turn in the rotation to see if I might try fading him off of 4 starts in which he'd thrown a staggering 473 pitches. But I saw that his next start, which was last Wednesday against the Red Sox, would again have him enjoying 5 days of rest. So instead of betting against him, I went with him, and Lee was The Man once again, pitching another shutout, this time throwing 112 pitches. I felt pride.
But now I'm again contemplating an unthinkable fade of Cliff Lee. This time around, he's taking the ball in Toronto after throwing 585 pitches in his last 5 brilliant starts, except this time, he's going on 4 days of rest. In his five June starts, Lee enjoyed pitching on 5 days rest three times, including the last two. Now, though, I think he's going to show up with much less than his best stuff. In fact, this time he's not even getting a full 4 days. Lee is getting shorted six hours with the 1 ET start instead of the usual night game starting time. Most everyone is expecting another string of zeroes across the scoreboard, but I'll be very surprised if he enjoys another great start.