I've got to hand it to the Boston Celtics. For the fourth season in a row, they are a great team led by three future Hall of Famers who are all still going strong. Today they sit at 23-5, a remarkable achievement given that they've not only done without their starting center for all 28 games, but they've also been missing other pieces for at least a few games at a time. They just completed a 14-game winning streak despite the fact that their magician of a point guard had to miss the last 6 games of the streak.
Last Wednesday, I thought Philadelphia had an excellent chance to beat the Celtics in Boston, and they might've done it, too, if they didn't insist on giving the ball to Andre Iguodala in the clutch, a guy who sinks a game-winner for the Sixers about as often as I do. "Iggy" came up super small on two last minute possessions, allowing the Celts to escape with a non-covering 84-80 win. Afterwards, the captain, Paul Pierce, said "We're just finding ways to grind it out cause we don't have the healthy bodies. You don't know who's going to be in there night-in and night-out."
Three days later, on Christmas, I wasn't sure if the Celtics were going to survive the game in Orlando, but for 3.5 quarters, I was impressed as they seemed to be on their way to another gutty, grind-it-out win, which would have been their 15th in a row. But then the collapse happened, the tank finally went below "E", and the streak was over. Three days later, though, most NBA bettors seem very confident that the Celtics will surely climb right back on their horse against this middling Indiana Pacers team, but I don't think so.
In another thread today, someone speculated that the Celtics probably had a good record after having at least a couple days to rest following a loss. When I read that, I thought to myself "Sounds about right", but I checked it out to be sure. Turns out the opposite is true. Since March of 2009, the Celtics have played 10 regular season games on 2 or more days of rest following a loss. They've gone 6-4 in those 10 games, but a terrible 3-7 against the spread. In 4 of those games, they were road favorites, as they are tonight. They split those 4 games and burned up the bettors' cash in the process by going just 1-3 ATS. The one cover was by half a point last season in Detroit, when Rajon Rondo sank a pair of free throws with 6 seconds left to give Boston a 105-100 win as a 4.5-point favorite.
So here the vaunted (but hobbled) Celtics are tonight, laying 5.5 points to the unremarkable Indiana Pacers, a franchise that hasn't won more than 36 games in any of the last four seasons, and who sit at 13-15 this season in the awful (except for the Bulls) Central Division. Doesn't look like much of a challenge for the C's, but hold everything. It appears that the Pacers have recently begun taking home losses very personally. Since last season's All-Star break, the Pacers have gone a very sneaky 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS at home following a home loss. Check it out:
They lost at home to the Bulls in the game prior to the All-Star break, but then covered at home as 5-point dogs to the Spurs in a 90-87 loss in the first game after the break.
On February 27th, following a home loss to the Bucks, they beat the Bulls, 100-90.
On April 4th, following a home loss to the Heat in overtime, they crushed the Rockets, 133-102.
On November 9th of this season, following a home loss to the Bucks, they opened up a record-breaking can on the Nuggets, 144-113, a game in which the Pacers hit 20 shots in a row during the 3rd quarter.
On November 18th, following a home loss to the Hawks, they destroyed the Clippers, 107-80.
On December 17th, following a home loss to the pissed-off Lakers, the Pacers bounced back with a 108-99 win and cover over the Cavaliers.
Similarly, yet even more striking is the fact that the Pacers are a butt-kicking 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS this season following any home loss. Check this out:
On November 9th, following that home loss to the Bucks, they embarrassed the Nuggets by 31 points. (covered by 32.5 points)
On November 13th, following a home loss to the Rockets, they went to Cleveland and won, 99-85. (covered by 16 points)
On November 18th, following that home loss to the Hawks, they beat up the Clippers, 107-80. (covered by 19 points)
On November 22nd, following a home loss to the Magic, they went to Miami and shocked everyone, beating the Super Friends, 93-77. (covered by 25 points)
On November 28th, following a gut-wrenching overtime home loss to the Thunder, the fearless Pacers traveled to L.A. and upset the Lakers, 95-92. (covered by 11 points)
On December 17th, following that home loss to the revenging Lakers, the Pacers beat Cleveland, 108-99. (covered by the hook)
That's a perfect 6-0 this season off a home loss, with four of the wins coming as dogs. Both the average margin of victory and the average margin against the spread has been over 16 points. Who knew the Pacers had this fury inside them? I didn't, until today.
Which brings us to tonight. The Pacers are at home off a home loss, having shot very poorly in a 104-90 defeat against the Grizzlies on Sunday, They're getting little respect from the oddsmakers and significantly less from the betting public. The Pacers are getting 5.5 points from Boston tonight despite having been beaten by more than 4 points just three times in fifteen home games this season.
What makes the widespread enthusiasm for the Boston -5.5 bet even more curious is that the Celtics don't even have an impressive recent record at Conseco Fieldhouse. When the Big Three formed in 2007, they won easily by double digits in their first two visits to Indianapolis. Maybe those two easy games softened them up, because the last three visits have gone like this:
On November 1st, 2008, the Celtics, laying 6, were non-competitive in a 95-79 loss.
On December 7th, 2008, the Celtics, laying 8, trailed the Pacers, 105-102 in the waning seconds when Paul Pierce nailed a 3-pointer to send the game into overtime, where Boston won by 5 but didn't cover.
On November 14th, 2009, the Celtics, laying 7.5, were again non-competitive in a 113-104 loss.
For a game where so many seem to think that everything is pointing Boston's way, I can't find anything that doesn't point Indiana's way. With a Pacers team that's just killing its opponents after every home loss, I'll gladly side with the 5.5 points (that I feel Indiana bettors won't even need) and strongly recommend a huge chunk of moneyline action at +200 or better.