Bogeys weekend with Byron Nelson

Nailed Bradley 25/1 FRL Thursday which was sweet considering I rarely hit those, it was nice to wake up and see the -10 atop the leaderboard and not even have to worry about the afternoon groups.

Won my lock of the week with Walker over Garrigus in a blowout!

I have small plays on Kaymer and Singh top 20's and Singh top 10 also.

English at  50/1 and Cabrera at 80/1 to win and they totally fell back in round 2 after looking in much better shape.

Put down 100 on Palmer at 12/1 today hoping we get the "win for a friend" come Sunday afternoon. Hope Keegs will stay put over the weekend.

Spurs/Grizz moneylines

my plan is to take the +150 to +165 on the dog each game this series unless there is some drastic change of dynamic.

IMO both teams have shown the ability to play just as well away from home as they do at home.

If Grizz win game 1 I will likely not moneyline game 2. Same goes for Spurs in game 4 if they happen to win game 3 in Memphis.

Anyone have ideas for of against this thinking?

SERIES AVERAGE PROP BETS SA/MEMHIS

Player prop lines are out for the Spurs/Grizz on series averages. Bovada and most lines are -115.

SPURS that I like so far are Parker under 7.0 assists for the series and Duncan over 9.5 rebounds.

GRIZZ i like are Conley over 15.0 points per game avg and also leaning Gasol over 15.5 PPG for the series.

 Anyone stand out that might be slowed down in this matchup?  Ginobili was 12.0 ppg avg. Duncan was 18 points, Randolph lines were 16 and 10.

FADING GLOVER PREGGO WIFE

If there is just a 20-25% chance of him withdrawing due to his wifes pregnancy then that gives us some really solid value by fading him in and head to head full tournament matches.

From the way it sounds she could pop at any moment.

And even a false alarm would get him to WD.

Just a few thoughts, hope no one in here actually bet on him under the circumstances.

Clippers are done with BG less than 100%

Cant wait to see the contrast in styles between OKC and Grizz.

I give Grizz a legit chance at making the finals if they can get game 6 without any significant injuries. Not only that they will have some serious momentum and have just the team to slowdown OKC.

BOGEY'S MASTERS PICKS

I have Oosti  50/1 and Woods 9/1, bet  during final round of the 2012 Masters.

Bradley 28/1 and Rose 20/1, bet this week.

Will be looking at head to head plays. I will continue to fade Sneds until he shows close to old form especially when I get good price with  Donald and Bradley matched vs him.

TEAMS ARE FALLING DEAD....

For the Lakers and to the Lakers. A conspiracy nut might think the teams were being paid  off. -JK-

Seriously at this rate they way the things are heading that 6th seed in the west may be within reach for the Lakeshow.

That would jeopardize all those bets that people have of the Lakers either missing the playoffs and/or them losing in the first round.

I know no one will come in and admit it but MANY tickets were printed on that happening a few weeks back.

MVP RACE IS ON!!

it is called the most valuable player NOT the " best player in the NBA "

Using this criteria IMO Mr. Bryant has solidified himself AT least in the conversation, possibly even the front runner in many voters eyes.

If I had a vote it would be Lebron Kobe the Durant right now. BUT if Kobe continues to put on shows like the last few weeks he can overtake Lebron for the MVP.

You also have to remember that when the Heats winning streak ends, depending on where they are in the standings you can almost guarantee Lebron will be getting SIGNIFICANT less minutes. ( obviously this will depend on the best record for home court and the Heats positioning as far as that goes)

Want to know why you lost those bets?

Look in the mirror. YOU lost because YOU picked the wrong side. It isn't the refs, coaches or players faults. It isn't the commish's fault. YOU and YOU alone caused that to happen.

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Do yourself AND especially those on this forum ,  STOP COMPLAINING!
If you are going to gamble then do it with some class. No one wants to see your retarded post about some  conspiracy that cost you a $20 bet.

The NBA betting area is for picks and strategies, NOT a sounding board for crybabies. Just remember that when YOU make these whiny posts people are laughing at you!

So please stop wasting peoples time and stop cluttering the board with BS.

ALL STAR MVP--- JAMES HARDEN

Game is in Houston and in the past  guys who were playing on their home court have played lights out. You know Harden is can score if given the playing time.

15 times the hometown player has been awarded the MVP trophy, close to 25%.

What do you guys think a good price is? I have made up my mind if he is healthy and I can get 15/1 I will be betting. Most likely I will take a bit less.

HOTLANTA vs DENVER + P MANNING

Just wanted to say with a final score of 27-21, after the 4 QUICK game changing turnovers I personally feel Denver made a solid effort to put themselves in position  where one more mistake from ATL and DEN could have won the game.

I have seen a few threads on Manning being washed up or Manning is  his old self. My opinion it is still too early to write that chapter.

CHAMP BAILEY AND PROPS

WHO WILL HE COVER TONIGHT, WHITE OR JONES?  OR WILL THEY PLAY SIDES? ALSO WHAT DEFENSIVE SCHEMES DO THESE 2 TEAMS USE? GENERALLY...

I WILL MOST LIKELY BET UNDER 5.5 ON THE PLAYER CHAMP COVERS.

ANY PROPS FOR YOU GUYS TONIGHT?

HUNTER MAHAN ON RYDER CUP

http://www.golfchannel.com/news/doug-ferguson/notes-mahan-says-he-wont-watch-ryder-cup/


I couldn't believe what I read, did he really say these things?! Very selfish if you ask me. I never had a reason to dislike him but these comments combined with his comments a few years ago about Ryder Cup players getting paid for playing really pisses me off.

Sounds like he is very bitter right now.( AS AM I, LOL! ) One of the comments below the article said he should go with the team and cheer them on. I totally agree. It may be just what he needs to snap out of this COMA he has been in the last few months.

Take a look at this...

In my opinion the possibility of missing out on the final 30 to go to East Lake is really bothering most of the guys.

in the 3rd round alone look at the scores of the guys that may miss out with a bad finish. fed ex rankings 27th through 38th really struggled with only 2 guys under par in round 3.

I am of the same thinking as last year(cant find post) that simply fading this group will be profitable on Sunday. I think last years group was 25-35 and if I remember right they shat as well.

If someone could post that leaderboard (2011 Barclays and 2011 BMW)with fed ex points as well as scores that would be much appreciated.

CANADIAN WOMEN OPEN

TSENG 12/1  1U
WIE 50/1       .25U

SO YEON RYU -120 OVER M MIYAZATO 3U
TSENG -110 OVER NY CHOI    1U
YANG -130 OVER STANFORD  3U


Tseng will win another one soon and I will not miss it. Was on her at 20/1 last week and she finally showed some life and they drop her to 12/1 just like that. That kinda price is to high for her talent even if she has played like ass for a few months

OVER/UNDER LOW ROUND TODAY

Just for fun I wanted to start this thread. I will make the line 65.....

WINNING SCORE PREDICTIONS @ KIAWAH

I WILL GO OUT ON A SHORT LIMB AND SAY -8/280 UNLESS THE WEATHER REPORTS  OF 10-15 MPH WIND ARE  OFF THEN IT IS A CRAP SHOOT.

I SAW 282.5 SOMEPLACE....

FADING TIGER WOODS PLAYING PARTNERS

I brought this up a few months back and the comments were rather funny.

The last 10 rounds in a major his playing partners have failed to break par. This includes the likes of Rose, Garcia, Mickelson, Bubba and Furyk and Wittenberg ( who probably played the best round out of all 10 rounds)

Counting the Masters( Bae, Jimenez, Swartz and Singh only 1 out of 16 rounds played  with TW were sub 70 and that was a 69 bythe Mechanic in round 1.

Keep on thinking this man doesn't effect others playing with him.

BEST PGA WIND PLAYERS

I honestly think we should use this thread to make notes of who the better wind players are on tour and bump it when they are playing a windy round.

Vijay could be added to a list along with Fowler and Van Pelt who seem to perform well in the wind.

Chad Campbell is another that is known for his wind prowess.

HEAT/BOSTON GAME 2

I am usually an under bettor, especially in closeout situations but with 17 missed free throws and 9/39 on 3's I think I will be betting over the 178-181 total in game 2.

OKC/SA SERIES AVG. PROP BETS

https://sports.bovada.lv/sports-betting/nba-player-props.jsp

So what do you guys think about these lines? Any clear cut leans?

If you like a bet please list  a reason explaining why.


Duncan at o/u15.5 looks low to me considering his last 4 games 21,19,18 and 26.

I can only assume that the books think Ibaka will do one helluva good job defending him. Looking back he did cause Gasol and Bynum problems.

Who will POPP focus on?

Will it be Durant or Westbrook? From what I have read it looks as though Green will be on Westbrook the majority of time he is in and I think this will definitely cause RW average less points than he did in the LAL and Dallas series.

If the series avg for RW is 24.5 or higher I will be betting under.

What other tricks do you guys think Popp will try to slow these guys other that 1 on 1 ?

Any chance that Green/Leonard/Ginobili will hold Harden under a 17 point series average?

STOP!!!TO THOSE WHO ARE GUILTY.....

STOP OVERREACTING TO ONE GAME, EVERY YEAR TEAMS LOSE GAMES THEY WERE SUPPOSED TO WIN AND BOUNCE BACK THE NEXT GAME.

STOP BLASTING THE OFFICIALS JUST BECAUSE YOU WERE ON THE WRONG SIDE OF THE CALL/CALLS.

STOP JUDGING  PLAYERS ON ONE OR TWO BELOW AVERAGE GAMES, REMEMBER THEY ARE HUMAN ALSO.

IGGY VS P PIERCE

Anyone know where to find out how many points per game Pierce averages vs the Sixers when IGUODALA played same game? Thinking last 12-15 games would be enough of a sample.

Pierce over/under for series is 19.5 pts., thoughts?

What key golf stats do you look at?

hey guys I want to get a discussion going. Whenever you are looking at 3rd and 4th round match ups what are some of the stats you look at from the previous rounds?

Example 1 player A  is -4
                  player B  is -4

Which player  would you expect to do better going forward, the guy who has previously hit many greens in regulation but putted bad or the guy who missed many greens but putted extremely well to get up and in a lot?

Out of putting/chipping    vs.  ball striking- which is easier to fix/improve on the next round?

I tend to think the guy who has been putting better can fix a swing flaw and hit more greens the next round.