Mr_Randy_Watson's Blog

Posted Wednesday, March 14, 2012 05:52 PM

Streak for the Cash vs Reality

I'm sure most are familiar with ESPN's Streak for the Cash, and was curious if anyone has ever followed what people are picking in the contest compared to actual results.  The reason I bring it up is because La Salle is 2.5 point favorite currently through my local, however over 90% have chosen Minny to win straight up on ESPN Streak for the Cash.  Obviously the casual observer is going to perceive Minny as being better than La Salle, so I get why the percentage is so high.  But I guess what I'm curious is if anyone has tracked it enough to see if there's any correlation to what the majority are picking in the contest compared to actual results.  I may not have explained this very well, but any thoughts or anyone done any research?  It dawned on me when I saw La Salle favored yet 90+ % picking Minny on ESPN.  

Best of luck to all!!  I love this time of year and can't wait to watch games all day at work!!    




Posted Tuesday, February 15, 2011 04:17 PM

Randy Tuesday...

Been a couple weeks since posting, keeping it disciplined and not betting for the sake of betting, staying in the black as I continue the grind.  Good luck to everyone!

YTD Record:  19-15-3 +2.65 units 

George Mason/VCU over 142.5  2.2 to win 2 

No fancy write up, I just think George Mason will get their's offensively, and VCU will bounce back after that loss to ODU, I see a close game and think both teams get in the 70's relatively easy tonight.

GL! 

Randy






Posted Sunday, February 06, 2011 12:06 PM

Why so much love for Minny?

Not even sure yet if I'm playing this game, but seems like a lot of love for Minny, and obviously the line has gone down.  What am I missing here besides Ohio St. is the "square" play supposedly?  I watched a lot of Minny's game against Indiana, and they looked terrible offensively, they are really missing Al Nolen, I hope they don't count on Hoffarber running the point.  I know they're at home where they are 11-1 or whatever, and they have some size to contend with Sullinger and Dallas, but there's just no way I could back Minny here against the the #1 team in the country after watching them against Indiana.  OSU has played some close ones on the road, so they should be humble coming in.  This game seems like Kansas/Nebraska yesterday to me where Nebraska was the "sharp" play.  I would lay the points with the better team today, but just my opinion.  Curious of anyone's thoughts    

Good luck to everyone today, hope it's a profitable day!!

Randy


Posted Friday, February 04, 2011 12:55 PM

For all the trend lovers, here's a few...

Norm Hitzges on Dallas talk radio always has interesting trends and stats, here's a few I just heard him talking about:

Average of 52 points in Pitt's games against winning teams this season.

Average of 58 points in GB's games against winning teams this season.

11 of 15 Super Bowl's played on artificial turf have gone under the total.

If you picked the winner of the past 44 Super Bowls, you'd also be 38-4-2 against the spread (I think I heard this right, may want to double check, was trying to remember and write everything down)

11 of the last 12 Super Bowls teams have not combined for more than 10 points in the first quarter.  Like this one for a possible first quarter under play, thinking maybe both teams are conservative early.

Haven't had time to double check how accurate these are, but I know he's a gambling nut so I'm sure he has done his homework, FYI.  Good luck everyone on your plays this weekend, hope the info can be helpful to someone! 

Jackson Heights Own...Mr. Randy Watson 


Posted Tuesday, February 01, 2011 02:26 PM

Randy Tuesday...snowed in and hungry for some McDowells!!

YTD 17-13-3 + 3.35 units

Nice hit on Texas last night and first half over, almost had the Ville first half, 2-1 on the day.  So far I like:

Illinois/Penn State under 130 .55 to win .50

From what I see 9 of 11 Illinois home games have hit 130 or more, but I still like the under.  Penn State has been playing some good defense against some formidable opponents lately, which has lead to some really close games, on the road, against the likes of Ohio St. and Purdue.  Add that to PSU being one of the slowest tempo teams, and Illinois not very fast paced.  Even if Illinois gets out and scores, I don't see Penn State keeping up, they want this to be an ugly defensive battle, I hope anyway.  Just a small play as the under seems like the square play.  

GLTA!  

Randy 




Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 09:24 PM

Need a good tie break point total fellas, any suggestions?

May come down to the tie break in my NFL pickem pool, ususally I stick close to the line on these, but curious of any suggestions.  Don't have a good feel for this total.  Any thoughts would be appreciated!  

Posted Monday, January 31, 2011 05:09 PM

Randy Monday...TEXAS!!!!

Haven't posted in a couple months, 15-12-3 YTD + 1.5 units for the record keepers.
For starters, I am a Longhorn homer but rarely bet on the teams I root for, so I wouldn't say this is just another biased pick.  I understand that this game has trap written all over it for Texas backers, and that Vegas is supposedly begging us to take them, and the sharp money is on the Aggies.  Why wouldn't Aggie be the play?  Home team has won the last 10, home team is 15-5-1 ATS, Aggie gets beatdown in Austin, Aggie coming off loss to Nebraska.  Many signs point to Aggie right?  Yes, they do, I completely agree.  Put all the trends aside, I'm taking the better team tonight, a team that has proven they can win on the road.  I heard talk discrediting Texas' win at Kansas (on ESPN I believe), how the players were drained emotionally and going on no rest, etc (basically excusing the loss in my opinion).  I'm sure some of those guys were tired, I lost my dad at the age of 18, so I know it's not easy, I don't question that they may have been a little tired and emotionally drained.  However, the bottom line is Kansas came out guns a blazin', up by 12 at half, but Texas withstood the uppercut to the chin, kept the deficit manageable, and kicked ass in the second half.  There is no doubt that Aggie is going to be motivated, but I believe Texas is every bit as motivated.  They got drilled in College Station last season during their second half... [More]

Posted Friday, January 21, 2011 05:33 PM

AFC Championship History

Heard ol' Norm rattling through his statistics this morning on local Dallas sports radio, didn't catch everything, but he was talking about the margins of victory in AFC Championship games.  Going back to the first game in 1970, I counted 26 of 40 AFC Championship games have been decided by double digits.  He may have mentioned it, I didn't hear, but only 4 of the 40 AFC Champ. games have been decided by 3 points or less.  What does this mean for this weekend?  Hell if I know, just found it surprising more games weren't close and thought I'd share. GL everyone on your plays! 

Posted Wednesday, December 22, 2010 11:52 AM

Rangers possible major trade????

Listening to Norm Hitzges, local talk radio, and he is saying that Webb was ready to sign, but the Rangers put the deal on hold due to a major trade possibility?  Anyone have any ideas?  Is Josh Johnson out of the realm of possibility?  

Posted Friday, December 10, 2010 04:56 PM

Anybody know what Wizards game opened at?

Covers shows it opened at Wiz -5, my local has Wiz +3, is covers correct or is that a mistake?  Any thoughts on this game?  Seems like one of those games where NY is the obvious play at -3 on paper, which is why I may go oppo here.  Looks like Wall is probable, just curious what you NBA cappers think about this game.  Thanks.

Randy


Posted Friday, December 03, 2010 09:56 PM

Randy Friday KSU/WSU

15-11-3 YTD +3.7 units

1-0 yesterday

KSU/WSU over 144   2.2 to win 2

Although WSU isn't giving up very many points per game, I look at who they've played, and that would be the 274th, 312th, 154th, 294th, and 340 ranked offenses thus far, so I see KSU scoring on them tonight.  WSU has two good scorers, and see them scoring as well with the home court advantage.  I hope to see a lot of 3-balls in this one, think both teams get in the 70's.  Looks like this opened at 146 so not sure if I'm on the right side, but I like the play and rolling with it.  

GL!

Randy     








Posted Thursday, December 02, 2010 07:56 PM

Randy Thursday Baylor 2H

14-11-3 YTD +2.7 units

2H Baylor -4 1.15 to win 1

Watching this game and ASU just isn't that good, Baylor isn't playing great but they shot 42% compared to ASU's 55% with 12 more attempts.  I think they blow them out second half.  

GL! 

Randy


Posted Thursday, November 25, 2010 11:51 AM

Randy Thursday

13-10-3 YTD +3.9

2-4 yesterday -2 units, looking to bounce back.

Boston College +7 1.1 to win 1

Too many points in my opinion, I know BC lost to Yale, we shall see.

GL!  Happy Thanksgiving!

Randy


Posted Wednesday, November 24, 2010 02:16 PM

Randy Wednesday

11-6-3 YTD +5.9 units

6-4-1 yesterday +1.55 units

Chaminade +17 1.2 to win 1

If I were using the angle I used betting Wichita St. yesterday, OK would be my play, but Wichita is much better than OK in my opinion, I just can't back OK involving that many points.  I just think Chaminade has enough to hang within this number today.

GL!

Randy


Posted Tuesday, November 23, 2010 12:35 PM

Randy Tuesday

5-2-2 YTD +4.35 units

3-1-1 yesterday +2.45 units

Fell asleep to an 87 point first half in K State game, woke up to an under winner, was pleasantly surprised.

Leans so far :

Wichita St. -17 (keeps dropping through my local, so gonna wait it out).  

Michigan State -5 (looking at first half MSU too)

GL today, be back later!




Posted Monday, November 22, 2010 02:46 PM

Randy Monday...

2-1-1 YTD +1.9 units

UCONN/WSU over 135 1.2 to win 1

I see a lot of turnovers which should lead to fast break points, and a lot of 3 balls jacked up.  We shall see soon!

Good luck! 

Randy


Posted Friday, November 19, 2010 04:46 PM

Afternoon and Evening Plays

1-1 on the day, +.9 units.  

Maryland +4 1.1 to win 1

Minnesota +7 (bought .5) 1.2 to win 1

Good luck to all!  





Posted Friday, November 19, 2010 11:49 AM

Early Game 1H

1H Coastal Carolina -6.5 --- 2.3 to win 2

Coastal last two losses to decent teams, Upstate not very good at all, seems square, but I think they pound em early against a weaker team.

GLTA, let's the day off to a good start!

Randy






Posted Thursday, October 28, 2010 09:51 AM

Anyone bet on 1st period over/unders

I don't bet much hockey, but I've started to bet some overs in the first period.  So far this season, the over in the 1st period has hit 75 out of 128 games.  The last 7 days, it's hit 32 out of 47.  Through my local the juice usually isn't too outrageous, although last night there were a couple games at -135.  I guess my question to my hockey bettors out there if there any angles you guys use in playing the first period goal total, not sure if a few day layoff affects things much, or whatever.  I want to do more research, but curious what you guys think of betting 1st periods?  Cheers 

Posted Friday, October 22, 2010 11:24 AM

Weather in Arlington

FYI for anyone who cares, there were 60% chance of rain today and tonight, but now I'm only seeing 20-30%, expected to be south winds 15-25 mph, which would be blowing in from right.  

Posted Tuesday, October 19, 2010 11:36 AM

AJ Burnett food for thought...

Hasn't pitched in 17 days

Hasn't won in 47 days

Hasn't won against a winning team in 147 days 
(he beat Oakland twice in this stretch who were a .500 team)

I think the Yanks hit Tommy Hunter tonight, the question is does AJ Burnett show up???

The only play I'm looking at right now is Yanks team total over 5, I don't trust Tommy enough to play them tonight.


Posted Monday, October 18, 2010 05:32 PM

Titans 1st Quarter -.5 (+120)

1 unit to win 1.2

Jax usually doesn't start too fast, looking for Rob Bironas to get this for me tonight.  

Good luck to all tonight on your plays!!!


Posted Saturday, October 16, 2010 11:53 AM

Randy's Saturday

Bummer my Rangers lost last night, hit on the Louisville/Cincy over, on to today.

NC St./ECU over 69 (bought the half point) ---- 1 unit

I think NC State gets in the 40's relatively easy, and I don't see the Wolfpack shutting down ECU.  I also lean to ECU keeping this close, but not playing the side.  Good luck to all!!!


Posted Friday, October 15, 2010 05:09 PM

Randy Friday Night over

Over 56 --- 1.1 to win 1

I think this is a close game where both sides score in the upper 20's or low 30's.  Lean to Cincy but laying off the side in this one.  Good luck to all!

Randy 


Posted Friday, October 15, 2010 03:33 PM

Question for my Cowboy fans...

Why the hell is Owusu-Ansah still returning kicks?  Is it me or is this guy terrible or what?  There's been talk locally criticizing special teams, but more about Buehler not getting touchbacks and making field goals, and kick coverage.  You can count on the offense having to go 80 yards or more every drive.  Just curious what you guys think, I don't know who would replace him, but that guy looks awful on kick returns.  I know our problems are more than just that, but good lord it's frustrating to watch.  Just a small vent.

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User: Mr_Randy_Watson
Joined: January 2009
Location: Texas
Team: Dallas Cowboys
Occupation: Management

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