NoWorries21's Blog

Moneyline vs. runline question

By NoWorries21 | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, August 20, 2009 12:10 PM   2 comments
I was just looking for a little advice/discussion about when there is value playing the runline compared to moneyline and what the cutoff point is. I will give you a couple examples and they may not be exact but close. Yesterday I played Boston on the reverse runline because I got it at +205 compared to moneyline at +135. Thats 70 cents which seemed to high for a team like Boston and in that situation. On the other side last night the Cards were +120 but on the reverse runline they were only +165 a difference of just 45 cents. I made the mistake of playing runline again but I thought about it right after game had started and thought I had made a mistake, which I did, just because of the lack of value. This also showed with Rockies backers yesterday. They were -151 moneyline and -110 runline a difference of only 41 cents. Once again I was suckered in by the less juice but lost. I am not upset about losing a bet but making the mistake due to lack of value. One more I noticed but I know there are a lot more is Seattle was +220 moneline but a whopping +370 on the reverse runline. I saw the huge value and liked Seattle anyway with Verlander off high pitch count but messed up by not playing runline despite a 150 difference. Should I have just taken the Seattle play and split units. I would love to hear thoughts from some of you. I dont wanna hear just dont play runlines becaue there is value in them.
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guerillaw says:
08/20/09 12:24PM
Great thread. I play almost exclusively run lines, so this is fascinating to me. 
I agree with your analysis (also followed mistake hitter's thread) about the value differential, i.e. if you are giving up a run, the payout should reward sad risk accordingly. 
One wrinkle though. Some teams are public teams or allegedly high scoring teams, yanks, rangers,  and sox for example. So this might affect what the RL is set at. 
What I mean is, Boston will be expected to win by more than a run by bettors, so the book can set the line lower and still expect lots of run line action. 
In turn, I think the stronger principle is to ensure value, not necessarily to use the differential to play totals because the differential could simply indicate a betting tendency on that particular team. 
For example: Texas hosts the Pirates. Let's say millwood v maholm. Line is rangers -225, RL is -120. Run line differential is 125. Does this mean the game will go over? Not necessarily a strong indicator, it is just that Vegas know people would pound the 
rangers at RL - whatever. In fact, over the day that RL might drop to 140 and people will still bet it b/c they figure no way the bucs keep it within one run. 
So always keep the team's reputation in mind .
I try to keep all my plays on the positive side, which is why I play a lot of RL. I figure all my picks will even out to about %50, so if I can consistently take plus money, I will be ahead. 

This is why I agree with you about taking the alternate run line on dogs! We do not do this enough! Many days these are the strongest plays on the board value-wise. 

 

NiC_IcE says:
08/20/09 12:58PM


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User: NoWorries21
Joined: March 2009
Location: Texas
Team: Texas Rangers
Occupation: Recreation

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