NorthernCapper's Blog

Posted Wednesday, October 28, 2015 02:18 AM

NorthernCapper's Wednesday NBA

Welcome back NBA!  Yesterday went according to plan as we went 2-0 for +7 units hitting Bulls 1st Half -1.5 and Warriors -10.  Lets keep this momentum going tonight!
Yearly Record:
: 0-0: 0-0: 1-0: 1-0: 0-0
YTD - +7 Units
Wednesday Plays:

1st Half - San Antonio Spurs @ Oklahoma City Thunder - 2  (max play)
- Similar angle to Cavs/Bulls play from yesterday.  OKC is gonna be rocking tomorrow.  Okc is my personal pick for the championship this year.  First time fielding a healthy team in a long time.  Kawhi will match up well vs Durant but San Antonio will have no answer for Westbrook.  I really think the OKC big men are really underrated and are going to surprise a lot of people this year.  Kanter may emerge into being a borderline top 5 centre in the league.  A number of new pieces for San Antonio, and like the cavs last year they've been here, done that - this is just another regular season game while for OKC this is their chance to reestablish their presence as a serious contender this year.  Big game to start the season. I like OKC to cover the game line, but I love them in the half spot more and will lay the smaller halftime number.  OKC comes out with energy and takes a 6+ point lead into half.

More plays, leans, trends, and info to come. BOL everyone!... [More]

Posted Tuesday, October 27, 2015 03:03 PM

NC's NBA Opener - Cleveland @ Chicago

After stepping back and just observing last year I'm jumping back into the fray!  I'll be posting daily plays all season and hopefully build on last year's successful run. 
I'll be playing based on a unit scale where  = 1 unit.  For me personally a unit = $500, but units are meant only to provide a reference to my feelings towards a play.  Reminder to always play within your personal limit and be patient.  It's a long season - hopefully we can have a nice season together.
Lets build this up and keep things positive - good luck everyone !
Lets get to the plays.
Tonight I'm Rolling With:
1st Half - Cleveland Cavaliers @ Chicago Bulls - 1.5  
- Lebron James has  flat out owned the bulls and that success has translated to the Cavs since Lebron's return.  Tonight however I see the bulls coming out with alot of energy and intensity early - with their most hated rival coming into their place for the season opener, with a new coach in place, and coming off an offseason of gossip, rumors, and doubt as to whether the bulls have what it takes to contend.   I still believe the bulls have one of the best rosters in the league, and without Kyrie and Shump and a Lebron who's dealing with (minor) back issues I think the bulls backcourt has a big game tonight and comes out strong to send a message to start the season.  Not confident enough to lay the full game line, but I'm all over the bulls to cover the short... [More]

Posted Wednesday, November 19, 2014 12:36 AM

NorthernCapper's Wednesday - Spurs @ Cavs

Yesterday: 4-1
San Antonio Spurs @ Cleveland Cavaliers -2.5 (max play)
San Antonio Spurs @ Cleveland Cavaliers over 203 (max play)
Going off of who needs and wants this game more.  This is the look ahead that got the cavs last time out vs the nuggets.  This is the measuring stick they've been waiting for all year.  From the time that lebron went to cleveland the talk has been how good is this team vs the miami big 3.  Does this big 3 in cleveland fix any of the areas the miami big 3 were exposed for during the finals last year.  Obviously they can't play the miami big 3 straight up so this is their measuring stick.  The defending champs come to town.  You know lebron wants this one, and you know the cavs are hungry to show they are a title contender after a very so so start to the season.  The spurs on the other hand, been there done that. Sure they want this game but in the end they know they have their season long plan they'll stick with the long game and do their spurs thing.  I see the cavs taking this one.
Spurs have struggled offensively so far this year at times, but i still see them scoring enough to take this one over the total.  The cavs on the other hand (up until the nuggets game) were on a tear offensively.  I expect a bit of that to come back in this one.  Cavs energy pushes the tempo for the game.  Spurs make it a close one but cavs take it in the end.  
Score Predict... [More]

Posted Tuesday, November 18, 2014 01:01 PM

Tuesday 5 Plays - LAL@ATL, OKC@UTH, NOH@SAC

Los Angeles Lakers +10 @ Atlanta Hawks  (2 units)Los Angeles Lakers @ Atlanta Hawks over 213 (2 units)
Lakers giving up 112.1 ppg this year and an even worse 115.5 on the road. Atlanta giving up 102.8 ppg this season. Nick young potential return could boost lakers offense.  Lakers have played tight games on their last road trip vs NOH and MEM. 
Key Number: Lakers score at least 101 points and can't lose both.
Score Prediction: 108-113 
New Orleans Pelicans @ Sacramento Kings - 2.5  (3 unit)New Orleans Pelicans @ Sacramento Kings o200 (3 unit)no teams have been so efficient at blowing massive early leads as the Kings this year.  New Orleans coming off a competitive game last night vs portland where they struggled down the stretch.  Pelicans have great top talent but not that great depth.  Endurance could be an issue down the stretch.  Rudy Gay and Demarcus Cousins should be a problem for the pelicans in this one.  I see them combining for 50 points tonight.  Pelicans have given up 103 ppg on the road so far this year and over their last 5 both teams have upped the tempo with NO scoring 110.4 and giving up 102.4 and SAC scoring 101.8 and giving up 104.2.   New orleans is off to a great start yet has still struggled on the road (1-3) vs Sac (3-1) at home (only loss was opening game vs GS).  Sacramento has played 6 of their last 8 on the road and have now had 3 days off at home to build up to this one. &... [More]

Posted Friday, November 14, 2014 11:20 AM

NorthernCapper's NBA Friday - MIA/ATL, SA/LAL and more

So i'm back to posting picks.  Health issues are in the rear view and i've been having a great year in the NBA so figured i'd hop back on here and post some picks.

I post picks a short writeup on why, and will track the record throughout the year.  I play 1-3 unit plays. Obviously tail/fade at your own risk!

Happy to be back and let's beat some books!

GL to everyone tonight

Posted Monday, February 04, 2013 11:29 AM

NorthernCapper's Monday

148-105-6 (58%) (+122.2 Units)1 unit: 0-02 unit: 2-3 3 unit: 39-25-1 4 unit: 59-37-3 5 unit: 47-36-2 >5 units: 1-1
Yesterday: 2-1 (+2.5 units)
5 units: Los Angeles Clippers -3 @ WashingtonI'm sure this will be a strong publicly backed play/trap game, but I'm still going to jump on it.  This Clippers team has really fallen into a slump lately, looking real pedestrian.  That being said even the pedestrian version of the Clippers can beat Washington.  The Clippers should be hungry for a win in this one as they try to get back on track.  Jamal Crawford is listed as probable for this one which is a big factor for the Clippers, while Bradley Beal and Trevor Booker are doubtful/expected to miss for Washington.  I don't see anyone on the Washington roster who matches up well with Blake Griffen and I think defensively the Clippers match up well with Washington and should keep them down around low to mid 90s.  That should be enough to get the W both SU and ATS

4 units: Sacramento @ Utah under 199.5Total has gone under in 5 of Sacramento's last 6 gamesTotal has gone under in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 road gamesTotal has gone under in 6 of Utah's last 8 home games vs. Sacramento
The injuries are really starting to pile up for Utah.  No Hayward, Earl Watson, Raja Bell, or Mo Williams leaves Utah with a VERY thin backcourt.  The only active Jazz guards left on the roster: Jamaal Tinsley, Kevin Murphy, Randy Foye,... [More]

Posted Sunday, February 03, 2013 02:03 PM

NorthernCapper's Sunday - Don't Call It a Comeback Edition

146-104-6 (58%) (+119.7 Units)1 unit: 0-02 unit: 2-3 3 unit: 39-25-1 4 unit: 57-37-3 5 unit: 47-35-2 >5 units: 1-1
First post in just over 3 weeks.  Saturday the 19th represented a real shit storm for me.  Got my ass handed to me, lost some $ and then late that night ended up getting t-boned by a drunk driver late that night.  Fucked myself up pretty good.  Spent just over 2 weeks in the hospital.  Back home rehabbing now and back to covers and capping.  Hope to get back into a routine.   Hopefully my head wasn't rung too bad and I can get on track with some winners. 

5 units: Miami @ Toronto +5.5
Mia are 8-18 ATS last 26 MeetingsTor are 16-6 ATS last 22 Sunday GamesTor are 13-6 ATS last 19 home games
I wasn't a huge fan of the Raptors trade for Gay initially, but you never know.  They looked great against a sleep walking LAC team, but the one thing with Gay is that he potentially could make Toronto a much better defensive team.  Gay is one of the few players in the NBA that can give Lebron some problems defensively due to his length.  I think Ross and Derozan can cause problems for Dwade.  Ultimately I see this game coming down to rebounding.  Adding Gay and getting Val back from injury makes Toronto an even better rebounding team.  Miami really struggles vs. good rebounding squads.  I see them struggling in this one.  Toronto and their crowd should really b... [More]

Posted Saturday, January 19, 2013 01:22 AM

NorthernCapper's Saturday

143-95-6 (60%) (+156.9 Units)1 unit: 0-02 unit: 2-3 3 unit: 39-23-1 4 unit: 55-34-3 5 unit: 46-31-2 >5 units: 1-1
Yesterday: 7-4 (+14.6 units)
Saturday Plays;
5 units: 1st Half Golden State @ New Orleans -2
3 units: Golden State @ New Orleans -4This is a risky game to lock in so early with the potential status of Lee and Curry potentially up in the air.  Lee i'm pretty sure will play against NO, he returned after rolling his ankle and seemed fine, but with flying you never know, sometimes injuries swell up and GS may play it safe.  Curry Could also return, but I'm somewhat doubtful.  Curry has shown this ankle injury of his is becoming more of a chronic issue.  
Lee and Curry have been the two best players for GS so far this year.  If neither of them can go that's really going to hurt them against a truly surging New Orleans team. Eric Gordon returning finally gives NO someone who can score the basketball, and they've turned that into success, winning 6 of their last 7 games, with quality wins over Bos, Hou, SA, and Dal included in that stretch of games.  
I like them to get off to a great start early in this one and continue that momentum into another win.  I feel odd laying points with a fairly unproven team vs a real scrappy warriors squad, but this is the 3rd game in 4 days for GS.  You have to imagine playing Mia and SA will tax a team.  Hornets is the play for me.
4 units: Sacrament... [More]

Posted Friday, January 18, 2013 01:15 AM

NorthernCapper's Friday

136-91-6 (60%) (+142.3 Units)1 unit: 0-02 unit: 2-3 3 unit: 38-21-1 4 unit: 52-32-3 5 unit: 43-31-2 >5 units: 1-1 
Yesterday: 10-3 (+26.7 units)

Friday Plays:
5 units: Golden State +12 @ San AntonioGS's struggles in SA have been well documented, 27 straight losses, and the loss of Steph Curry really threw GS off against Miami, and will most likely continue to hurt them going forward.  I don't buy GS as this large of a dog though.  Jarrett Jack is still a serviceable backup, one of the best backup PGs in the league, and GS is still a very scrappy team that matches up very well with this SA team.  The last teams that have been greater then 11 point dogs in SA have been MIN, LAL, PHI, NO, and TOR.  GS is better then all those teams and really don't deserve to be such a large dog, especially vs a SA team that has shown time and time again they're more then happy to 'just win' regardless of score.  I don't see SA being all that motivated to blowout GS while GS should be looking for a bounceback performance from that stinker they threw up vs Miami. I'm expecting a great game, should be fun to watch.
4 units: OKlahoma City -4 @ DallasDallas has played better lately getting 4 straight wins, but I see that streak coming to an end tonight.  OKC is simply one of the best 2 teams in the NBA right now and actually have a better D away then they do at home (95.5ppg).  Dallas often hangs close with them but I don... [More]

Posted Thursday, January 17, 2013 12:47 AM

NorthernCapper's Thursday

126-88-6 (59.5%) (+115.6 Units)1 unit: 0-02 unit: 2-3 3 unit: 35-21-1 4 unit: 49-30-3 5 unit: 39-30-2 >5 units: 1-1 
Yesterday: 2-3 on game lines, 2-4 on halftime plays for 4-7 on the night.
Rough night last night.  Got carried away with the halftime plays.  Chased when I shouldn't have after the Chicago game went belly up.  Going to bounce back today with a winning card.  More discipled today and will stick to a smaller number of plays.

5 units: Miami Heat +3 @ Los Angeles LakersMiami are 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetingsUnderdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings
The line here seems like  a major overreaction to 2 straight Lakers wins vs average to below average opponents.  If this game happens with the Lakers on a losing streak instead of a small 2 game winning streak, this line is probably Heat -4 or -5.  Heat have struggled recently but you know they'll get up for this game.  Was worried about the B2B angle, but with them gutting GS they were able to rest their starters almost the entire second half.  Dwight Howard may be in line for a big game in this one vs the small Miami lineup but I don't think it'll be enough.  Lakers biggest issue all year has been transition defence.  I don't believe 2 wins has solved that problem.  Kobe trying to matchup vs the other teams best defender worked well against Milwaukee but seems long term like it will only burn out Kobe.  Even i... [More]

Posted Wednesday, January 16, 2013 01:18 AM

NorthernCapper's Wednesday

122-81-6 (60%) (+132.2 Units)1 unit: 0-02 unit: 2-3 3 unit: 31-21-1 4 unit: 49-26-3 5 unit: 39-28-2 >5 units: 1-1 
Yesterday: 6-2-1 (+19.3 units)
Wednesday Plays:
5 units: Chicago -2.5 @ TorontoChicago is 4-1SU last 5 on the roadChicago is 7-1SU last 8 games vs TorontoChicago is 11-5SU last 16 games in Toronto
Jumping on this one early.  Been riding Toronto alot lately, but going to flip on them this one and take Chicago.  B2B situation for Toronto having played Tuesday in Brooklyn.  I see the key to this game being the rebounding and size of Chicago.  We saw a little bit of this in Toronto's last home game vs Milwaukee.  The sub par Milwaukee frontcourt dominated the glass and had one of their best games of the year.  Chicago's frontcourt is on a different level and should cause all sorts of problems for the Toronto bigs.  Toronto is the 3rd worst rebounding team in the league with 40.0 rpg. 
Toronto has relied on quick starts last few games and have gotten off to good starts thanks to mainly Jose Calderon who should struggle with the Bulls pgs.  I really like playing elite defensive teams vs. young/inexperienced teams as youth brings speed but also brings confusion and frustration when faced with tough defenses.  Toronto has has youth, and they've shown they struggle against defensive, physical teams.    I see them struggling to score in this one and don't see them scoring... [More]

Posted Tuesday, January 15, 2013 01:43 AM

NorthernCapper's Tuesday

116-79-5 (60%) (+112.9 Units)1 unit: 0-02 unit: 2-3 3 unit: 31-20-1 4 unit: 46-25-3 5 unit: 36-28-1 >5 units: 1-1 
Yesterday: 7-2 (+19.2 units)
5 units: Toronto +7 @ BrooklynHard to go against bk the way they've been playing but there still doesn't appear to be much of a home court at the Barclays centre. 
Potentially no Gerald Wallace is big. He's their motor/energy guy. There were a number of games he was the only net playing hard. He's also a loss at the defensive end. 
Torontos struggles on the road early came mostly from lack of confidence, something this recent stretch of home games (and wins) has gone a long way to correct. Toronto has a history of playing Brooklyn close. The Toronto front court of Ed Davis and Amir Johnson have been fantastic latelyand should attach up well vs the Brooklyn front court. Brooklyn has an advantage talent wise at pg and sg, but Toronto counters with better depth at those positions. Calderon has really come on lately, and Lowry if rolling is a great spark for the raptors while derozan and Terrence Ross should do a good job matching up with Joe Johnson.  
A divisional game between teams very familiar with one another. I just think its too many points. Unless Johnson or Williams goes off, Toronto covers with a chance to win. ... [More]

Posted Monday, January 14, 2013 04:20 PM

NorthernCapper's Monday Plays - Boston @ New York

109-77-5 (59%) (+93.7 Units)1 unit: 0-02 unit: 2-3 3 unit: 29-20-1 4 unit: 43-23-3 5 unit: 34-28-1 >5 units: 1-1 
Yesterday: 0-2 (-9.9 units)
Ice cold last week.  Hopefully new week means back to winning ways.
Monday Plays:
5 units: Minnesota @ Dallas -6
I think the injuries and constant rotating lineups have really hurt Minnesota, especially on the defensive end. Through to December Minnesota ranked 6th in defensive efficiency.  That's fallen off a cliff.  In the month of January they now rank 28th in defensive efficiency.  Dallas has really struggled so far this year but they are a team with alot of new pieces coming in this season, some key injuries, and a really really tough schedule over the last 20 or so games.  Dallas seems to be figuring it out though, coming off a big win over Memphis on Saturday.  
I really like Dallas in this spot.  They seem to be playing with alot more confidence lately as players are starting to establish roles.  They know that their season is most likely going to come down to the next 10 games or so.  If they can string together some wins they stand a chance to at least get back in the playoff picture.  I'm taking Dallas.
will add 1 or 2 plays later.
Leans:Sacramento -5play well at home, riding a bit of a losing streak but all losses to real good teams.  Don't know how Cleveland will handle Cousins.
Washington -1.5Washington has be... [More]

Posted Sunday, January 13, 2013 01:02 PM

Milwaukee @ Toronto

109-75-5 (59.3%) (+103.6 Units)1 unit: 0-02 unit: 2-3 3 unit: 29-20-1 4 unit: 43-23-3 5 unit: 34-28-1 >5 units: 1-1 
Yesterday: 1-1 (-1.5 units)

Sunday Plays:
5 units: Milwaukee @ Toronto under 192.5Under is 8-3 in MIL last 11 road gamesUnder is 8-2 in MIL last 10 Sunday gamesUnder is 19-7 in TOR last 26 home games
Sunday afternoon game, both teams have fairly good defences and have proven to be happy playing slower paced games.  Milwaukee averages just 94.4 ppg on the road while the raptors are giving up just 93.3 ppg at home.  Toronto is scoring 98.1ppg at home while Milwaukee is giving up 94.4 ppg on the road.  I'm seeing a 96-90 type final.  

4 units: Milwaukee @ Toronto -2Toronto is 10-3 ATS last 13 home gamesFavorite is 8-3 in last 11 meetings H2H
I'm a believer in this raptors team at home.  Should be a good game between these 2.  Milwaukee and Toronto match up well.  Milwaukee has played well this year, but I'm not going against Toronto at home, especially with such a small line.

... [More]

Posted Saturday, January 12, 2013 12:18 PM

NorthernCapper's Saturday

108-74-5 (59.4%) (+105.1 Units)1 unit: 0-02 unit: 2-3 3 unit: 29-20-1 4 unit: 42-23-3 5 unit: 34-27-1 >5 units: 1-1 
Yesterday: 3-3 ( -1.3 units)
Been really struggling lately with plays, especially totals.  Sides have been ok.  Got bailed out last night by 2 late plays on POR and OKC.  Going to slow things down for at least a few days.  Only going to be playing 1 or 2 PODs but will post 2 or 3 strongest leans each day.  Thanks to everyone who keeps reading and posting.  Streaks happen both good and bad but over time i'm confident i'll stay in the black.
Saturday's Plays;
POD5 units: Houston -1 @ PhiladelphiaPhiladephia is just 3-13 SU over their last 16 gamesHou is 11-3 ATS last 14 on the road
These teams are build 'fairly' similar. They both are built around depth, and having quality players who can do multiple things on the floor.  Both are better at the 1 to 3 spots then they are in the post, difference being Houston has an elite post defender in Asik.
Houston however seems to be playing with some of the best chemistry in the league right now, while Philadelphia has gone into a downward spiral they can't seem (or care) to snap out of.  
Philadelphia has lost 13 of 16 and have come out flat in a number of games recently.  With Houston losing 2 straight on the road, I see them coming out hungry for a win in this one and getting back to their high flying offence.  Even if Phila... [More]

Posted Friday, January 11, 2013 12:15 PM

NorthernCapper's Friday

105-71-5 (59.7%) (+106.4 Units)1 unit: 0-02 unit: 2-3 3 unit: 28-20-1 4 unit: 42-21-3 5 unit: 32-26-1 >5 units: 1-1 
Battered today after a 0-5 night last night. That's what happens though when you double down on 2 totals. Risk losing both and going 0-4. Miami sh1t the bed to make it 0-5. Real confidence shaker but hopefully can shake off some of the stink today and get back to winning ways. 
5 units: Houston @ Boston over 201Houston has been tremendous at pushing the pace against almost everybody (minus NO last game) and I think they will be able to do that here against Boston. Hou gives up 103.8ppg on the road this year, and this years Boston team, unlike the last few years, is able to get out and run as they have some youth on their team with Bradley back, and green and sullinger playing well lately, Rondo is starting to have guys who can run with him. In previous years rondo would push the pace and then get stuck waiting for everyone to catch up. Hou has been on a tear recently offensively, scoring 115+ in 6 of their last 10 games, they should score 100 tonight. Boston is averaging 97.3ppg at home this year. They should be able to crack 100 as well. 
4 units: Charlotte +8.5 @ Toronto4 units: Charlotte @ Toronto over 196Charlotte has had 4 of last 5 games go over the totalCharlotte has had 8 of last 11 games vs Toronto go overCharlotte gives up 105.4 ppg on the road. Charlotte is 7-1 SU and ATS last 8 games vs Toronto
... [More]

Posted Thursday, January 10, 2013 04:20 PM

NorthernCapper' Thursday (Miami Side and Total + Indiana Total)

105-66-5 (61.4%) (+131.7 Units)1 unit: 0-02 unit: 2-3 3 unit: 28-20-1 4 unit: 42-19-3 5 unit: 32-23-1 >5 units: 1-1 

5 units: Miami @ Portland over 195
5 units: Miami -3 @ Portland
Miami has been in a major funk lately, I like the primetime game tonight to snap em out of it.  Since the big 3 landed in Miami they have struggled against elite defensive teams (Chicago, Boston, Indiana, etc) as these teams are able to slow the game into a halfcourt game limiting fastbreak points and then clog up the paint defensively to limit Lebron/Wade's slashing.  I don't like the way Portland matches up in this sense.  Portland's guards lack the size and athleticism to matchup with Wade and especially Lebron.  Batum is tall but lacks strength and should get swallowed up if Lebron decides to head into the paint.  
Portland has been playing as a relatively small team this year which doesn't bode well for them in this one as there is maybe no team in the league that plays better small ball then the heat when they're able to move Lebron to the 4 and run.  Portland doesn't really have a defensive big who can play help D and defend the rim.  Aldridge I still don't believe is 100% and should have about equal production to bosh, and while I'm a huge believer in Lilliard, he isn't going to be able to makeup for for the disadvantages at the 2 and 3 positions that Portland have.
Miami has been on a bit of a slide, making i... [More]

Posted Tuesday, January 08, 2013 11:27 PM

NorthernCapper's Wednesday Plays

98-60-4 (62%) (+132.0 Units)1 unit: 0-02 unit: 2-3 3 unit: 26-19-1 4 unit: 39-18-2 5 unit: 30-19-1 >5 units: 1-1 
Yesterday: 8-2 (+22.1 units)
5 units: Dallas @ Los Angeles Clippers over 200.5
The Dallas road D is just awful this year as they're giving up 104.7ppg on the road this year. LAC are scoring 104.9ppg at home this year. The clippers should get 105+ in this game. The clippers have made a point of putting on a show when at home vs bad defences. I don't see tonight being any different. Clippers don't play again until the 12th. They should go hard. I'm jumping on this early as I see it really moving over the day. 
4 units: Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs over 212.5
Another line I'm jumping on early as it should move up over the day as well. The Lakes head to San Antonio off a B2B. I'm a believer in B2Bs affecting defensive effort more then offensive effort. I see the lakers still scoring but I don't see them being able to do anything defensively to slow down SA. Spurs crack 120 tonight as they run all over this small, thin, defensively challenged Lakers squad. Lakers score enough to hit the over. 
3 units: Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs -13
I usually cringe at laying this many points but like I said above, this lakers team right now is incredibly banged up and incredibly short on size. The lakers starters may be able to keep it respectable for the first half, but once fatigue sets in like it did t... [More]

Posted Tuesday, January 08, 2013 01:49 PM

NorternCapper's Atlanta @ Minnesota

5 units: Under 190
4 units: Atlanta +1
Trends:Road team is 10-1-1ATS in the last 12 meetingsAtlanta is 5-0SU in last 5 games vs. MinnesotaAtlanta is 5-0SU in last 5 games in MinnesotaMinnesota is 1-4ATS last 5 gamesTotal has gone under in 6 of last 9 Atlanta road gamesTotal has gone under in 13 of last 17 in the series @MinnesotaTotal has gone under 6 of last 9 in the series
OffFor (Rank)FG%3P%FT%RebATL
MIN94.1 (21)
96.9 (20)46.0
MIN93.1 (3)
93.1 (6)44.3
2 top defensive teams with 2 below average offenses take the floor today.  Combine that with long list of Timberwolves either out or banged up and i see this being a low scoring game with the advantage falling to Atlanta.  Without Kevin love, there really isn't anyone on Minnesota who can score the ball.  Ricky Rubio gives them a slight boost passing the ball and setting up chances, but doesnt help the shots actually fall.  I see Minnesota keeping the pace of this one down at home but I don't see them being able to come away with a win in this one. With Love out, the role of leading scorer falls on Pekovic a nd his 15ppg.  Pekovic vs Horford should be a great battle that will potentially cancel each other out depending on how banged up Pekovic is. 
 I see Josh smith as being a major factor in this one as he causes matchup problems for Minne... [More]

Posted Tuesday, January 08, 2013 01:31 AM

NorthernCapper's Miami @ Indiana

90-58-4 (61%) (+109.9 Units)1 unit: 0-02 unit: 2-3 3 unit: 24-19-1 4 unit: 35-17-2 5 unit: 28-18-1 >5 units: 1-1 
5 units - Under 188.5Total has gone under in 10 of Miami s last 14Total has gone under in 6 of Indiana s last 7
I HATE playing unders but like the way this situation lines up for a low scoring contest. Miami is a high scoring offence overall but primarily bc of home production. Scoring 105.8 at home vs just 98.8 on the road. Indiana meanwhile plays one of the most boring paces in the league, shooting an awful 42% from the field and scoring just 91.3ppg. 
Indiana has been getting things done with the second stingiest defence in the league, giving up just 88.0ppg at home this year. Indiana is allowing a league best 41.4% shooting from the field and just 5.2 made 3s against per game. 3 pointers being something Miami relies on. 
4 units : Indiana +4Miami is 1-5 ATS last 6Miami is 6-19 SU last 25 in Indiana 
Miami has been questionable at best on the road this year while Indiana has played solid at home. Like the match ups for Indiana. Miami is the second worst rebounding team in the league while Indiana is the third best. This should limit second chance points and force single shot possessions for Miami and lead to a distinct second chance points advantage for Indiana. Paul George is one of the few players in the league that potentially can match up one on one defensively with Lebrun. Obviously he won't stop hi... [More]

Posted Saturday, January 05, 2013 11:54 AM

NorthernCapper's Bounceback Saturday

82-56-3 (59.4%) (+86.7 Units)1 unit: 0-02 unit: 2-3 (40%)3 unit: 22-18-1 (55.0%)4 unit: 31-17-2 (64.6%)5 unit: 26-17 (60.5%)>5 units: 1-1 (50%)
UNBELIEVABLY BAD 1-4 night last night.  Worst night in the last few years for me.  Clippers made me sweat to avoid an 0-5 night.  Could've done better plays by flipping a coin.
Hoping to bounceback tonight though and get back over 60%.
Today's Plays:
5 units: Golden State @ Los Angeles Clippers over 201
Total has gone over 5 of last 6 in the seriesTotal has gone over in 6 of last 9 GS gamesTotal has gone over in 4 of last 5 LAC gamesTotal has gone over in 8 of last 12 LAC home games
Not going to over think this one.  These 2 teams met in GS just 3 days ago and finished with a 115-94 total and that was with a complete bomb of a 3rd quarter where nobody showed up.  I don't see any reason this game would be played like the slow 3rd quarter rather then the uptempo way the rest of the game was played.  I know the Clippers just played last night but both teams need to play uptempo to be successful, neither offense thrives in the halfcourt.
4 Units: New Orleans @ Dallas over 193.5New Orleans Road Scoring - 95.5ppgNew Orleans Road Defense - 100.4ppgDallas Home Scoring - 101.9ppgDallas Home Defense - 101.1ppg
New Orleans scores the ball better on the road which should only help with Eric Gordon back in the fold while Dallas continues to play a fast paced style and struggle defensively. I... [More]

Posted Friday, January 04, 2013 01:53 AM

NorthernCappers Friday

81-52-3 (60.9%) (+99.3 Units)1 unit: 0-02 unit: 2-3 (40%)3 unit: 22-17-1 (56.4%)4 unit: 31-15-2 (67.4%)5 unit: 25-16 (61.0%)>5 units: 1-1 (50%)
5 units: Los Angeles Lakers @ Los Angeles Clippers -4.5Really hate this spot for the Lakers. Clippers had a season high 17 game win streak snapped on their recent road swing and now return home having lost 2 straight. They should be fired up for a win.  Really don't like the way the Lakers matchup with the Clippers. Lakers have struggled finding chemistry between their starters while the clippers have played real well together so far. 
Match ups:Dwight vs Jordan - Jordan matches up well and should be able to frustrate Howard and make him work on the glass. Kobe vs Clippers platoon of guards - clippers have a variety of looks to throw at Kobe.  Matt Barnes knows Kobe well and should be able to frustrate him. Crawford should be able to score Paul vs Nash - big advantage for clippers. Paul will have his way with Nash. Should be able to get in the paint and distribute. Lakers don't switch or help well on DGriffen vs Gasol - huge advantage Clippers, especially on the glass
Lakers biggest weakness: transition defenceClippers biggest strength: transition offence This should be the deciding factor in the game. 
Love the clippers. 
4 units: Indiana +3 @ BostonBoston's struggles should continue today. The way they've been playing they really have no business being favoured by 3 in th... [More]

Posted Thursday, January 03, 2013 11:57 AM

NorthernCapper's Thursday: Minnesota @ Denver

76-49-3 (60.8%) (+95.0 Units)1 unit: 0-02 unit: 1-3 (25%)3 unit: 19-15-1 (55.9%)4 unit: 27-12-2 (69.2%)5 unit: 23-14 (62.2%)>5 units: 1-1 (50%)
4 units: Minnesota @ Denver under 203
Lean: Minnesota +8 @ Denver - Going to wait to see if this line moves
TrendsTotal has gone under in 5 of Denver's last 7 games overallTotal has gone under in 7 of Denver's last 10 home gamesTotal has gone under in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games overallMinnesota is 9-1 ATS last 10 visits to DenverRoad team is 20-5-1 last 26 in the series
Minnesota Road Off: 93.8ppgMinnesota Road Def: 97.2ppg
Den Home Off: 105.6ppgDen Home Def: 94.9ppg
Key point in this play is the injury status of Ty Lawson, currently listed as questionable but described by George Karl as "doubtful".  If Lawson is a no go Andre Miller will get the start which totally changes the game pace for Denver and turns the style of play to one more comfortable for Minnesota.  Minnesota has been a surprisingly good defensive team all year but has struggled to score the ball consistently.  I like the way these teams matchup from the defensive perspective, Faried should cause problems for love and Pekovic should clog up the paint for Minnesota. If Lawson doesn't go I see Minnesota really trying to slow the pace and keep this in a halfcourt game, both because of Denver's ability to get up and down the court, and because this is the 2nd half of a B2B. 
Denver's home defense has been quite good and I... [More]

Posted Thursday, January 03, 2013 11:42 AM

NorthernCapper's Thursday: San Antonio @ New York

76-49-3 (60.8%) (+95.0 Units)1 unit: 0-02 unit: 1-3 (25%)3 unit: 19-15-1 (55.9%)4 unit: 27-12-2 (69.2%)5 unit: 23-14 (62.2%)>5 units: 1-1 (50%)

5 units: San Antonio @ New York over 206.5
Lean: San Antonio +1.5 @ New York
Trends:Over is 10-3 in SA's last 13 vs Eastern ConferenceOver is 10-4 in SA's last 14 road gamesOver is 8-3 in NYK's last 11 home gamesOver is 5-1 in last 6 games in the series in New York
NYK are 30-11 ATS last 41 home gamesNYK are 13-3 SU last 16 home gamesSA is 11-3 SU last 14 games vs New YorkHome teams are 6-2-1 last 9 in the series
San Antonio is one of the few teams in the NBA that score as efficiently on the road as they do at home. 105.8ppg on the road (best in the league).  
New York has struggled defensively lately, allowing 103+ points in 5 of their last 7 home games.  That includes games vs Portland, Chicago, and Cleveland.  San Antonio should have no problem ringing up 110 points or more.
New York's offense had taken a hit over recent games without Melo and Felton in the lineup but still average 103.9 ppg at home for the year (one of the best marks in the league).  Melo is back and looked great, but Felton has meant a surprisingly great deal to this team and they've struggled without him in the starting spot.  San Antonio's defense leaves something to be desired giving up 100.4 ppg on the road.  New York Should be able to score more then the 103.9 they average.
The over is the best pla... [More]

Posted Wednesday, January 02, 2013 10:27 PM

Clippers @ Warriors

Already in for 5 units on over 200 on this game but really like the situation for this game and am playing a rare 1st half line.

1st Half:

4 units: over 101
3 units: GS +1

While LAC may win this game, without a doubt the Warriors will come out running to start this game off and the Clippers will have to keep pace or risk falling behind early.  I see a high probability of GS coming out fast and getting up on the Clippers early.  
Over has hit 5 of last 7 games in this series.
LAC are just 2-11 SU in their last 13 trips to GS


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User: NorthernCapper
Joined: September 2012
Location: Canada
Team: Baltimore Ravens
Occupation: Degenerate

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