NorthernCapper's Blog

NorthernCapper's Monday

By NorthernCapper | View all Posts
Posted Monday, February 04, 2013 11:29 AM   28 comments
148-105-6 (58%) (+122.2 Units)
1 unit: 0-0
2 unit: 2-3 
3 unit: 39-25-1 
4 unit: 59-37-3 
5 unit: 47-36-2 
>5 units: 1-1

Yesterday: 2-1 (+2.5 units)

5 units: Los Angeles Clippers -3 @ Washington
I'm sure this will be a strong publicly backed play/trap game, but I'm still going to jump on it.  This Clippers team has really fallen into a slump lately, looking real pedestrian.  That being said even the pedestrian version of the Clippers can beat Washington.  The Clippers should be hungry for a win in this one as they try to get back on track.  Jamal Crawford is listed as probable for this one which is a big factor for the Clippers, while Bradley Beal and Trevor Booker are doubtful/expected to miss for Washington.  I don't see anyone on the Washington roster who matches up well with Blake Griffen and I think defensively the Clippers match up well with Washington and should keep them down around low to mid 90s.  That should be enough to get the W both SU and ATS

4 units: Sacramento @ Utah under 199.5
Total has gone under in 5 of Sacramento's last 6 games
Total has gone under in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 road games
Total has gone under in 6 of Utah's last 8 home games vs. Sacramento

The injuries are really starting to pile up for Utah.  No Hayward, Earl Watson, Raja Bell, or Mo Williams leaves Utah with a VERY thin backcourt.  The only active Jazz guards left on the roster: Jamaal Tinsley, Kevin Murphy, Randy Foye, and Alec Burks.  These injuries have seemed to effect Utah's scoring as they've dropped to averaging just 96.6 ppg over their last 5.  Sacramento has obviously been a joke on the road this season, only averaging 91.2 ppg on the road (86.2ppg over their last 5).  I see this game being a slower paced game with Utah winning a 93-99 type game.
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czaqtorres says:
2/4/2013 12:31:26 PM
TheDragon69 says:
2/4/2013 1:24:00 PM
wow, welcome back sir! 
NorthernCapper says:
2/4/2013 1:29:19 PM

4 units: Charlotte @ Miami -13

Charlotte Road Stats:
For: 92.2 ppg
Against: 103.6 ppg

Miami Home Stats:
For: 106.8 ppg
Against: 96.1 ppg

The loss of MKG for this game hurt Charlotte as they lose one of their few perimeter defenders, and one of their few hustle players.  He would've been relied on alot to guard Wade and Lebron.  In the last 5 games Charlotte is averaging 90.4 ppg while Miami is giving up just 92.  Charlotte will have to play well just to score 90 in this one.  I don't see 103+ being a problem for Miami.  The teams that have given Miami troubles are either teams that have some combination of elite defense, rebounding, or 3 point shooting.  Charlotte doesn't even rank respectably in any of those areas, let alone elite.  I don't see how Charlotte keeps pace in this one, they really don't have an advantage at any position and really don't do anything that bothers Miami.  Miami should roll in this one.  I see a 20 point win for the heat.
NorthernCapper says:
2/4/2013 1:29:43 PM
Thanks Dragon69 
Slim-Daddy says:
2/4/2013 2:27:03 PM
NorthernCapper says:
2/4/2013 2:29:54 PM
lewsparks - thanks, good to be back.  I honestly don't know who Kevin Murphy is.  He's only averaging 3.6mpg and 1.6ppg.  I only listed him as a guard as that's what he's listed as on the Jazz website.  Regardless they're incredibly thin at the 1 to 3 spots.  There are d-league teams with better talent then the jazz have right now at those spots.  That being said they haven't been good at those spots all year but have been getting by with great post play regardless.
NorthernCapper says:
2/4/2013 2:30:47 PM
abcde - I personally don't touch Charlotte road unders.  Their D is so bad.  They can't score the ball either but it's never out of the question that someone will drop 120 on them.  
spocsstocks says:
2/4/2013 2:52:55 PM

I have no idea why you thing this will go under the total.  The home team has scored at least 102 pts 8 of the last 9 games in the series.  Also sacremento on the season, giving up 103.2 pts a game.  Your number 5 point is incorrect as sacremento is averaging 95.3 on the road this year.  They have one of the worst d you will see in the nba and in my opinion one of the worst teams with very little heart.

Im on the other side foye and millsap have been playing very well.  Over is 4-3 last 7 games at utah and they have been playing well.  Think this will be a up and down game.  Lots of points.  I wouldnt touch the under until the total was at 208 range or up. 

My overall record on the year is 182-170-9.  Also your win pctg is 57% and not 58 you seem to be off on your numbers. 

148+105+6= 259  148/259= 57 % not sure why you said 58 cant really count ties as wins.

2/4/2013 2:58:27 PM
Welcome back
2/4/2013 3:03:11 PM
PCBWiseguy says:
2/4/2013 5:44:57 PM
Very good work thus far this season NC, your logic and substance has been refreshing.
runstopper52 says:
2/4/2013 5:51:45 PM
Nice to see you around these parts NC.

Finished January Streak Monthly with a solid 19-12, just shy of the monthly at 23 wins.  Let's go get 'em in February! Also made a pretty penny on the Super Bowl Ravens +4.5, so the sportsbook is active as of now.  

As for today, on board with you regarding the Clippers. The forum is heavy with "trap" talk, but the Wizards are slumping again, Beal/Booker are iffy, and even a slumping Clippers team should be able to take care of this Wizards team.  Clippers frontcourt should have its way.  Although it's a b2b, Clippers probably amped to have a bounce-back performance, Wizards are the perfect medicine.

2-1 February Streak Monthly
Play of the Day: LAC -3 to get to 3-1

Roll Tide
runstopper52 says:
2/4/2013 5:52:10 PM
*Nice to see you return I meant
Shabazlyq says:
2/4/2013 5:59:52 PM

I'm on board with ya on this. But does it not worry you that most people will probably be taking this bait?

NorthernCapper says:
2/4/2013 6:07:14 PM

I have no problem with people who are on the opposite side.  Thats the fun with this stuff there's always a case to be made for each team.  I'll get to your comments though.  

a) "home team has scored at least 102 in 8 of the last 9 games"
Thats fantastic, but nowhere did I say Utah couldn't break 100 in this one.  I just see a slower game due to depth issues.  Even with 102 from Utah, SAC would need 98 to hit the over.

b) "Your number 5 point is incorrect as sacremento is averaging 95.3 on the road this year" I see the same 91.2 number on 4 sources, not sure where you're coming up with 95.3 but....

c) "My overall record on the year is 182-170-9" again not sure why that would mean anything to me, your profile also says -2200 units but again that doesn't mean anything with regards to this game.

d) I stand by my 58% record.  Pushes are just that, pushes.  I don't count them as wins, but I also don't count them as losses.  I count them as pushes.

Nowhere really did you leave any insight at all into the game, except saying that Foye and Milsap have been playing well.  Which they have.  Theres no such thing as a lock or a guaranteed winner.  You may be right, but next time you want to critique come with some sort of substance.
SportsFreak69 says:
2/4/2013 6:08:46 PM
Best of Luck 
NorthernCapper says:
2/4/2013 6:12:14 PM
Runstopper - Thanks alot! glad to see you continue to keep hurting the books my friend. Keep up the great work!  We usually have very similar thoughts about games.  Clippers game is no exception.  You can talk about traps, and it is a possible trap, but not all traps come through.  I agree that even this struggling clippers team should be able to handle such a small line vs the Wizards.  Hope we both cash! 

Shabazlyq - sort of the same, you always get a bit nervous when a team is sliding, but this Clippers team is too talented, and more importantly, has too good of chemistry to continue sliding much further.  They haven't forgot how to play ball and didn't instantly become a bad basketball team. They've shown, even without Paul, that they can be a very strong team.  Theres risk with everything but IMO getting the Clippers and only having to lay 3 is too good for me to pass up on.  Regardless of trap or slump.  BOL 
NorthernCapper says:
2/4/2013 6:26:01 PM

5 units: Dallas @ Oklahoma City over 209
Total has gone over in 5 of OKCs last 7 home games
Total has gone over in 6 of Dal's last 7 games overall
Total has gone over in 4 of Dal's last 5 road games
Total has gone over in 5 of the last 6 games in the series

OKC has really been strong this year off of losses.  I think they come out running tonight vs Dallas.  OKC is scoring an unbelievable 107.8ppg at home this year while Dallas is giving up 104.4 ppg on the road.  I see a strong likelyhood that OKC scores close to 110 tonight. 

Dallas on the other hand is playing much improved ball, going 13-3 ATS over their last 16 games, and there's just something about playing OKC that brings out the Mavs best games. The two previous games in the series this year both went to OT.  I think Dallas hangs around in this one, cracks 100, something that you need in an over this high.  

3 units: Portland +4 @ Minnesota
Portland is 9-1 SU last 10 games in Minnesota
Portland is 19-2 SU last 21 games vs Minnesota
Pretty simple one here, strong trends supporting the Portland play, they seem to matchup very well with Minnesota.  Portland's starting 5 is clearly superior to Minnesota s, and neither team has much of bench.  I really don't like this Minnesota team and don't think they'll win, let alone cover in this one.

NorthernCapper says:
2/4/2013 6:27:36 PM
Final Full Game Card (may add halftime)

5 units: LAC -3
5 units: Dal/OKC over 209
4 units: Sac/Uth under 199.5
4 units: Mia -13
3 units: Por +4

Bol to everyone tonight! 
manutdfctts9899 says:
2/4/2013 6:33:41 PM
JohnnyNBA says:
2/4/2013 7:22:15 PM
GL NC -- you should start postin your POD again over on my thread dude....your a solid capper and everyone would benefit.

TheReignman says:
2/4/2013 7:48:32 PM
NorthernCapper says:
2/4/2013 9:10:43 PM
Well guess we don't even have to worry about anyone matching up with Griffen.  That caught me off guard, def changes the game, but hopefully the Clippers can come back in the 2nd half, it's a close game so far.
NorthernCapper says:
2/4/2013 9:12:13 PM

3 units: 2nd Half Los Angeles Clippers @ Washington over 92.5
42.2% shooting for the Clippers and 48.9% for Washington.  Those numbers can carry on into the 2nd half.  I see the second half playing out more like the 2nd qtr then the 1st.
VitaliKlitschkO says:
2/4/2013 9:26:06 PM
I lose my money with this bet Miami -13 i don't see Lebron James in a garbage team,play with the bad team in nba,the Bobcats,and play at equal with them:/ i get one bet from u ,this was Miami and from start when i see how play i say this bet is lose
NorthernCapper says:
2/4/2013 10:16:25 PM

4 units: 2nd Half Dallas @ Oklahoma City over 103
NorthernCapper says:
2/4/2013 10:21:14 PM

4 units: 2nd Half Dallas @ Oklahoma City over 103
VitaliKlitschkO says:
2/5/2013 4:32:11 AM
Never in my life ,i don;t bet on this garbage team Miami sucks!!! play like a box with the bad team in NBA!
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User: NorthernCapper
Joined: September 2012
Location: Canada
Team: Baltimore Ravens
Occupation: Degenerate

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