Orante's Blog

Posted Tuesday, October 16, 2012 01:57 PM

Value of a Name

If I told you a team which has averaged 2.18 runs per game over their last 6 games (5 of which were at home in their hitter-friendly park), which has gone 3-5 over the last 3 years when priced at +150 to +175 as road dogs, which just lost its Captain and key offensive catalysy, and which is facing Justin Verlander - who has struck out 30 and given up 1 ER in his last 23 IP - ON THE ROAD...what would expect the line to be?

What if that team were called "The New York Yankees?"

It seems pretty off.  The problem is that when it comes to the Yankees, I can never tell if a line like this is a trap being set by the book to get action on Detroit, or whether it's set so low because they know fans and overeager amateurs will see anything over +150 on the Yankees as "good value".  

Are there any good arguments that +160 is good value on the Yankees tonight isn't based on lame arguments like "they're due" or "they know they need to win this one"?


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