PicksandParlays's Blog

Green Bay Packers/49ers Thoughts.........

By PicksandParlays | View all Posts
Posted Monday, January 07, 2013 01:11 AM   19 comments
Alright guys this is a tough game to cap. We have on one side the packers who have Aaron Rodgers playing like he did last year and on the other side the San Francisco Defense. I think even comparing the qb position with  Rodgers and Kaepernick is grave injustice to the man. Packers have Clay Mathews and Woodson back but lets face it the Packers are at best an adequate defense. The 49ers defense is elite against the run so Ryan Grant and the rushing will be kept to a minimum because as even the packers know if they have to beat the 49ers they will have to passing the football and playing to their strengths. The 49ers on the other hand will run the ball plenty because the last thing they would want to do is get into a shootout with maybe the best wide receiving core in the NFL.The packers rush defense is adequate and the 49ers pass defense is aqequate as well. These teams matchup well with eachother.
Now for the 49ers to win this game Kaepernick will eventually have to air the ball because the niners will not be able to win this game running the ball and maintaining possession because the hardest thing about playing good passing offenses is that they are always 2 or 3 plays away from a TD.
The advantage for the niners is that they are playing at home and they are very very good at home thats why they are laying -3 chalk.
I think this will be a very close game and in which the turnover margin will decide the winner. I would lay my money on Kaepernick turning the ball more than Rodgers and getting +3 is a bonus!

Opinions and thoughts are welcome. Lets dice and slice this game and pick ourselves out a winner.
19 comments
comment Post A Comment
KCsFinest829 says:
01/07/13 01:16AM
See my thread for full thoughts: 
http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=21&sub=101525074 

I feel Green Bay's defense is very underrated. Having Charles Woodson back changes their entire defense with his versatility. Personally I think Kaepernick shouldn't be starting. Alex Smith was having a great year and didn't turn the ball over. Green bay's defense has always been about forcing turnovers which Kaepernick will do. O line play has picked up although Newhouse is still a big liability. I personally also believe Green Bay plays better without the week off. Should be a good game and I know I am mentioning all the positive signs for the Packers and not much on San Fran, but I also feel there is more to talk about with the Packers improving than the niners. If Justin Smith doesn't go I love the Packers, still like them quite a bit.
JLourenco says:
01/07/13 01:17AM
I would take SF but will TRY and lay off for one reason.... SF Does not have a FG kicker. Akers blows and Cundiff folds like a chair under pressure. 

Like I said I will try to lay off but we will see
brydensuits says:
01/07/13 01:23AM
Plain and simple.....you need to be able to run the football somewhat in the playoffs. GB cannot run the ball and control the clock. This is always a very Important element of playoff football. It is as much about keeping it away from your opponent as scoring. Remember what happened between the Saints and Niners last year. This Packers team reminds me of the same elements. Plus I don't know if you witnessed any of the Packers post game presser but Rodgers looked scared poopless when he was talking about the team running the football. Niners play a clean game and offer a dose of California Love. BOL with the Pack but I would tread lightly,


PicksandParlays says:
01/07/13 02:01AM
I do understand that time of possession and controlling the clock plays an important part in any game let alone the playoffs but I feel the way the packers play is by outscoring their opponents making them abandon their running game. Basically making it a game of catchup. The Saints almost won last year but had 5 turnovers which cost them the game.The patriots would have won this year only to loose by the turnover margin. I feel the packers not having a running game works in their favor (fewer turnovers by the fierce SF rush defense) because I really don't see Rodgers throwing more than 1 int.In either case the 49ers will play this game tight as they usually do and I see this decided by a field goal so I see a lot of value in +3 or maybe buying it upto +3.5.BOL with whatever you choose.
Stevedore says:
01/07/13 02:01AM
Frisco was better up front on both sides week one and that's why they won 30-22.  Of the two teams, I feel GB looks the most different going into this game then they were week one.  Especially on defense, where Brad Jones at ILB, Walden at LOLB and Heyward in the secondary are all improvements over there IR'd teammates.

On offense, GB found out early that teams weren't going to play them like they did in 2011.  It took them a while to figure it out and they still are to a certain extent, but they've morphed into a more balanced offense.  Rodgers is checking the ball down more this year to move the sticks and defenses are taking the shot balls away with two-high safety looks.  Harris at running back is their version of Sproles, kid is quick and shifty who can catch.

SF is essentially the same team, they want to beat you up front on defense and run the ball down your throat on offense.  Their running it out of the pistol now with Colin but it still essentially the same mind set.  I feel Smith would be better a better fit for SF in this game.  He's more accurate than Colin and has playoff experience which is huge. I also feel Colin K. will make a couple of or a few mistakes that will prove costly in this.  GB is proven on the road and like the fact there is revenge, see Atlanta 2010, and a homecoming for Rodgers who'll want to beat his childhood Niners who passed him over in the draft. GB
PicksandParlays says:
01/07/13 02:08AM
If it does come down to field goals, Crosby vs Akers would be a battle for the ages!!! With the way both have played this year I see triple overtimes.haha
mushroomspore says:
01/07/13 02:49AM
Like his season has gone, Akers will probably make one big kick of 50+ yards, and miss an easier one from less than 35
Gabbo says:
01/07/13 03:14AM
This is the game Harbaugh had in mind when he made Kaep the starter. Smith is not more accurate than Colin. His numbers reflect that % only because he checks down so much.

And despite Rodgers gaudy stats, Packers still 4-4 on the road. If Rodgers doesn't put up 350+ yards and at least 2/1 TD/int ratio, the Packers have no chance. PS-Rodgers also will be in serious trouble if he takes more than his usual 4+ sacks a road game
ShadowWarrior says:
01/07/13 03:24AM
Aaron or Colin?  Are you kidding?  The better qb for me, Colin is only in his second year and he did not play the full year.  Colin was great at NV but man this is the NFL play offs.  I think the two least experienced qbs go down.  Kap and RW.   There are so many good ones to choose like Peyton, Tom Terrific, Aaron Rodgers.  Lesser tier is Flacco, Schaub and Matt Ryan.  The knock on Matt is he has never won a playoff game.  I believe this changes.  Second road game, hostile environment then even they win they must go to GB or SF.  No rookie is going to go to the SB to me.
SonicBlue says:
01/07/13 03:49AM
Playoff Experience by this year's playoff QBs:

AFC:  51 games, 30 wins

NFC:  9 games, 4 wins (all by Rodgers)

The Packers got their mojo back in addition to a running game and I'll take +3 all day in San Fran
Lefty1981 says:
01/07/13 03:59AM
GB > SF

+3 is a gift. I would have taken GB straightup or even -1.
KCsFinest829 says:
01/07/13 04:16AM

As many teams without a strong running game do, the Packers do a lot with personnel and the short passing game in place of a more standard rushing attack. If you have watched any Packers games recently, you will have seen this in many different ways. The most notable is out of the shotgun set: The running back sprints to the flat and is immediately thrown the ball, basically an elongated handoff. The receivers do not run routes, they do not even try to run off their guy on a vertical, they simply "stalk block". For those that do not know this is simply when a wide receiver "stalks" or shadows their defensive back and it is the runners job to read the block. The Packers have been using this extensively as it is designed to get the running back in space that they might not find in a standard rushing attack. Although it goes down as a pass in the box score, it is essentially a run. 
vegasroy says:
01/07/13 08:08PM
49 ers," the week off is big.they will be well rested and will grind it out on the ground"
YukonTrav says:
01/08/13 06:03PM
GB simply not a good team, and their running game is a joke. It will allow the 3rd best D in the league to spy on Rogers and double down on Jennings. Niners can score through the air (look at what they did to NE in NE) and once with the lead, will ground and pound with Gore. SF 27 GB 13
Louis51 says:
01/10/13 12:03PM
The off week is a negitive not a positive. GB should win all things being equal. Better offense with more weapons. defense will do a good job but they have to give the ball back to roger more often than not. IOW control the game. I will say the winner of this game goes to the super bowl.

No doubt.

forty9ersfan80 says:
01/10/13 08:06PM
1. green bay has a very average defense. sf has a great defense

2. niners have the best rushing attack in the league. gb has no running game

3. home field. green bay is 4-4 on the road this year

4. gb has a bad oline (rodgers was sacked 51 times on the year). sf has a stout dline

5. as far as the qb edge i agree it goes to rodgers but numbers wise its closer than you think.

sf 27 gb 21

for those who are talking about sf kicker as a disadvantage akers has been awful this year but crosby has been equally bad.

veronica27 says:
01/10/13 11:35PM
like the pack +3 .. they got blown out in gb by the giants last year .. but was a lot of dropped passes and the pack had just went to a funeral .. literally .. ny was hot .. really like this pack team to go all the way this year .. 49ers season was killed because of one man last year .. who might it be this year .. lol let's go PACK !!!
gfoss59 says:
01/12/13 03:03AM
With respect, when you write things like "so Ryan Grant and the rushing will be kept to a minimum," you, like other posters above, indicate you really haven't paid much attention to the Packers.

The Packer running game was okay -- not terrific, but okay -- to start the year, then lost a series of backs -- and now is solid again with H-a-r-r-i-s. In the critical drive of the Vikings game, Rodgers hit Harris about 3-4 times... easy, flip-to-the-back passes that more or less simulate the run in the West Coast offense. (Remember Rathman, Craig, &tc?)

It goes down from there, as when forty9ersfan writes GB has an "average" defense and "bad" oline. You could argue either, but if you take the trouble to note the changes and improvements in both, you come up with a different picture.

Hey, as a Green Bay fan I hope the 49ers are thinking along exactly these lines -- listening to their blow-hard fan base.

Packers have had trouble with physical teams all year, and at the end of last year. Losses to Giants (2x), 9ers, Seattle, KC, Vikings. I'm certainly not leading any Packer bandwagon.

But you're mistaken if you think their defense -- with Matthews and Woodson back -- is weak, or their running threat not present merely because GB's yardage totals have been distributed among a number of backs, not one star.

The game to bet on this weekend is Atlanta -1 (when I bet it), or about -2/-3 now.

habbit88 says:
04/06/13 10:59PM
the last scores is the 49ers win this game. this year, I hope the team win the super bowl game. there are many green pay backer and 49ers' jerseys from www.hotwholesalejerseys.com
Add your response:
Please note that the blogger has the option of reviewing all comments before they are displayed to the public. Your comment may not be published immediately.
 

Profile

User: PicksandParlays
Joined: June 2012
Location:
Team:
Occupation:

Recent Posts

Archive

Categories