bashers and sheep

I'm liking Memphis as well.  Their gonna be pretty pissed about the #2 seed as well.

GL

How much stock do you put into travel distance and game times for these first round games ?

BTW, that google spreadsheet is interactive so you can put in your lines from your sportsbook and it will do the calculations for you based on Accuscore numbers, like I said I will update this on Thursday morning with the final Accuscore numbers as they are the closest projections we will get to gametime.

As a side note this is just part of my system in playing, lots of leagues have different trends and this is system was setup for conference play only to establish conference trends.  But this is access to Accuscores paid numbers of which I'm a suscriber so any help is good help.  What I have found over the conference trends is that Dogs do fairly well in the system as do Unders at least in conference play with some conferences having stronger records than others.

Just sharing insights.

i was leaning lsu  and cal so far. i like the insight on wash miss st i do like miss st but wash being closer to home and travel for miss st makes sense tough one.

scotty bbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbbb

Surprisingly, among the top five hoop conferences, the most lightly regarded among the five, the Big Ten, is 55.1% ATS in the post-season the last five years while the other four have losing records.

With the NCAA Basketball post-season tournaments just a week away, we thought now would be a perfect time to see how the five conferences generally regarded to be the best in the land have done in the post-season the last five years, and the results have been surprising.

We did this analysis for the ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-10 only, as we have lost some respect for the SEC this season and we do not see any team from that conference making a deep run.

Well, much to our surprise, the conference that we feel is the worst of the five majors, the Big Ten, has fared best against the spread in the post-season since 2004, going 43-35, 55.1 percent ATS. Meanwhile, the other four major conferences are all under .500 ATS.

This may seem surprising on the surface, but on the other hand, since it is common knowledge that those four conference tower over the rest, the lines on their games have been very inflated. So in that regard, it makes sense that the big-name schools have struggled vs. the number.

Let us take a closer look at the performance of each conference the last five years.

College Basketball Post-Season ATS Records - 2004 through 2008

Big Ten (43-35, 55.1%): Even more surprising than the fact that the Big Ten is the only major conference with a winning ATS mark the last five years is the fact that the best ATS team in the conference during this time has been the Michigan Wolverines at 11-3 ATS. While this will not help us in the NCAA Tournament, Michigan can still be a prime play in the NIT this year. It should be noted that Big Ten schools have gone a very impressive 33-20, 62.3 percent as post-season favorites since 2004, but just 10-15, 40.0 percent as underdogs.

Big 12 (38-39, 49.4%): If not for the 5-1 ATS performance by Kansas en route to the national title last season, this record would be considerably worse. Well, it appears that Oklahoma is the cream of the Big 12 crop this season, but they have slowed down considerably lately, so the Big 12 may be prime fade material this year.

Pac-10 (32-35, 47.7%): This is another conference that appears to be worse this year then last year, due primarily to the slippage of UCLA. Interestingly though, similar to the Big Ten, the Pac-10 has gone 23-18, 56.1 percent as post-season favorites, but the best opportunities may be fading teams from this conference as underdogs, as those clubs are just 9-17, 34.6 percent ATS.

Big East (60-66, 47.6%): So, the two conferences that are generally considered the two best in the land this year have been the two worst conferences among the five majors from an ATS perspective the last five years. The Big East has not performed well either as a favorite (38-42, 47.5 percent) or a dog (21-24, 46.7 percent), so maybe the physical style this conference plays during the season does not translate well vs. more athletic teams.

ACC (50-58, 46.3%): The poor performance of the ACC may be primarily due to the so-called North Carolina and Duke Tax, as those two clubs always play to inflated lines in the tournament. As a result, ACC favorites as a whole have gone just 35-45, 43.8 percent. It should be noted though that ACC underdogs have gone 15-12, 55.6 percent, so perhaps the approach here should be to simply play the underdog in any game involving the ACC.

Among the most notable schools outside of the five majors, Memphis has gone 12-8, 60.0 percent ATS over the past five years, often dispelling the criticism that they are not toughened up enough in the regular season, playing in weak Conference USA.

On the flip side, Gonzaga is generally considered a very popular tournament team, yet they are just 3-6 ATS in the Big Dance the last five years. What does this all mean? Well, the answer is rather obvious: avoid popular teams like Gonzaga and those from the major conferences in the post-season, as the big money is to be made by backing the less popular teams from minor conference that are undervalued.

Now, while this is simple when a major conference faces a minor conference, what do we do when majors square off against each other? Well, we have compiled statistics for every head-to-head matchup between the top five conferences the last five years (all records are ATS).

Big Ten vs. Big 12: The Big Ten has gone 3-2.

Big Ten vs. Pac-10: The Big Ten has gone 4-3.

Big Ten vs. Big East: In a surprise, the Big Ten has gone 7-5.

Big Ten vs. ACC: The Big Ten holds its own again, as the teams split 6-6. That is a cumulative 20-16, 55.6 percent record for the seemingly inferior Big Ten vs. the four best conferences in the country. Obviously, this does not mean that the Big Ten is better, but rather, it is a combination of the conference being undervalued and the top four conferences being overvalued.

Big 12 vs. Pac-10: These conferences have split 4-4.

Big 12 vs. Big East: The Big East has gone 6-5.

Big 12 vs. ACC: These conferences have split 5-5. When you add in the 2-3 performance for the Big 12 vs. the Big Ten, the conference has a losing 16-18, 47.1 percent mark vs. the other four majors. Worse yet, there is no 2008 Kansas team this year to carry this conference.

Pac-10 vs. Big East: These conferences have split 5-5.

Pac-10 vs. ACC: The ACC has gone 3-1. When you add in the split for the Pac-10 vs. the Big 12 and their losing 3-4 mark vs. the Big Ten, the Pac-10 is a cumulative 13-16, 44.8 percent ATS vs. the other four majors. This also looks like a down year for the conference, as UCLA has slipped noticeably since last year.

Big East vs. ACC: The ACC leads the battle of the powerhouses 11-9 the last five years. It should be noted however that the ACC has become extremely top-heavy while the Big East is the much deeper conference now. Duke is 2-1 vs. the Big East during this time, although the loss came last year (West Virginia). North Carolina is just 1-2 vs. the Big East, with the win coming last year (Louisville). From a Big East perspective, Connecticut is 2-1 vs. the ACC, while Pittsburgh has not faced an ACC team in the post-season the last five years.

All the extra info always helps.  It always helps to get some elses input to see if i am missing something

i bombed on that one

GL in tourney folks.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pO5FQaf7haZKeU2N4p05-IQ&hl=en

Since I am a UCONN fan, I hated to see Mempis in their bracket.

irish 148

kentucky  136

Memphis I have winning it bro so I am not surprised at all with this team they only lost 3 games all year and no respect like last year because no one knows the players and everyone thinks they don't have a good team and it is just a bad conference.  There athleticism is incredible, one of the best coaches, playing the best D in the tourney these are 3 important factors in winning a chamionships in my opinion. 

Yes, think they win it all.  There is not to many reasons for them not make it to at least the final four....

Your troy -1.....would be very careful of this one....if this gets to troy +1.5...taking charleston....otherwise no play for me...BOL

Hey pimp, I have 3 questions to fullfill my bracket:

1.who do you see beating Mich. St.?

2. Wash or Purdue?

3. Illinois or West Kentucky?

I am having trouble with these games, please give me some advice

I really like the Over in Stanford and Vermont plus the points tonite but BOL

Pimp...

What you got for MLB Today...lol

BOL....and GB...Dogg

Also taking a look at over in teh Kstate/Ill State game.