The Noles -4 rally Thread

Think this is one of the best opportunities I have seen in a while..

The way FSU is playing defence and I have to believe VCU can't shoot the ball like that again.

-4 is an absolute gift from the books and I am in vegas to cash this one in.

I'll be the guy at the Wynn Hammered and cashing in 10K.

Who's with me on FSU??

CBB GOY

No I am not one of those idiots who posts GOY every week.

This is by far the best line I have seen in a long time and I can't understand the line.

FSU -4 ...... is an absolute steal.

VCU is going to have a nightmare trying to score on these guys and can't see them getting to 60.

I am flying into Vegas Tomorrow and will be placing the largest bet of my life on this game.

Jump on it now, it will probably jump another point or so prior to tip off.

If you see a really happy guy throwing money around after Florida St crushes VCU...... that will be me. 

Does Anyone Else have all #9 seeds winning

......... But the only one I feel doubtful on is ODU.

Nova, Tenn and Illinois should be gold.

Do you want to be 16-0 in your bracket?

WVU
ODU
LOU
TEM
KEN
PITT
SDST
VANDY
FLOR
BYU
UCONN
WISC
MICH ST
ZAGA
MIZZO
KSTATE

Does Anyone Else Like Purdue?

I think they blow St.Peter's out of the water.

Anyone agree?

Why UAB + the points is a good bet tonight

Wouldn't you be a little pissed if the last 3 days all you have heard is you suck and don't deserve to be here.

Take the points, sprinkle some on the ML and sit back and watch UAB prove they deserve to dance.

I AM ALL IN....

Not really.....but I LOVE VCU today.

Buying the hook because in my mind 5 is a key number.

VCU +5 ( -120 )  5 units

VCU ML   ------- > 2 units.


... GL today everyone!!!

St. Johns -2 ???? Something Smells Fishy

The hottest team in the country laying only 2 to shitty Seton Hall????

I smell something really fishy. If Seton Hall wins tonight, going to be a public bloodbath.

I am staying clear of this mess.

New System Alert!!

Been working on this one for a while. I am sure it's going to need some fine tuning but works basically like this:

Takes into account actual line set by Vegas lines and situational factors such as days rest and previous games. If my number is 3 or more off, it will be a play. The further my number is off, the better the percentage seems to be.

Overall, it's been hitting on just under a 65% clip. Let's see if it can keep up the pace.

For numbers 3-4 difference will be a 1 Unit play.
For numbers 4.5- 5.5 difference will be a 2 unit play.
For numbers 6+ difference will be a 3 unit play.

Will be tracking both units and record.

There are 5 system plays for today:

Wofford - 5  ( I have -8 )  1 unit

Cincy +6.5 ( I have +3.5 ) 1 unit

Notre Dame (Hate this play but I have -7 ) 1 unit

Temple +13.5 ( I have +9 ) 2 unit play

St. Joe's +6 ( I have pick )  3 unit play


Let's see how it goes.

3 Leans for Wednesday

I see 3 games tomorrow that have some Value.

New Mexico -2  - Should be a good spot for them coming off a home loss. UNLV is tough but I think desperation game for NM.

Arkansas +7 - If Kentucky is due for a let down, here is the spot. I mean how often are you going to get 7 points with a home team thats 14-1. Nuff said.

Wich St -10 - I think this is gonna be a big statement game for Wich St, coming off a loss to VCU, I think they blow the top off this thing tomorrow.

Don't Miss this One.... Part 3

I have always been the type of player to Fade bad teams playing well and play good teams playing shitty. It has worked for me consistently over the last number of years. I guess you could call it "reversion to the mean " theory. Good teams will get back on track and shitty teams will eventually find ways to lose.

Tonight presents a couple interesting games. First game I really like is:

Tenn +6.5 - The Vols come in struggling, losing 4 of 5 and only covering 1 of those games. On the other hand Vandy has won 5 in a row and covered 4. Ironcially this is a near play in the Kem-Pom system which I was just introduced to and seems to be working as of late, so hopefully a little added bonus. I expect a strong effort out of Tenn tonight and they will be ready to play.

I am also on Tenn 1H   +3.5

Last play for me today is going to be Memphis team total over. Number still hasn't come up but guessing it will be around 73 or 74.

Don't MIss This One... Part 2

California knows how to party.....unfortunately lately they have been playing some shitty basketball. Coming off a tough loss at home I expect Cal to come out STRONG. Play on them 1H as well.

Don't Miss This One!!

After suffering a devastating loss 3 nights ago, I thought VCU was going to get a really good number in their upcoming match against Witchita State. I was hoping for around +10, but 8 will work just the same. I think if VCU would have beat Gmason, that number would be around 5.

I think most would agree VCU's tourney hopes are slim to none but in their mind's with a win tonight, they still have a chance.

I see a BIG effort tonight from VCU and will take the 8 points to the bank.

Jump on the VCU train tonight with me......

True Love is Beating the Books

On a day where lovers are sharing flowers, cards and chocolates, I thought I would share some insight with you.

NCAAB is arguably the most unpredictable sport out there, which combined with a ton of games can give odds makers a tough time and essentially gives us the players an advantage.

There a ton of great tools out there and I applaud Covers.com for providing a one-stop shop to find anything I am ever looking for.
But how do we know which tools are valuable and which will work over the long term?

The answer? I can't give away all my secrets but I will share the results of something I track on a regular basis.

The " trap game " or fixed match has always been a debate with bettors for years and whether or not you prescribe to it, you can make money on it.

If you use the covers-consensus tool which I feel represents a good, if not better than average betting " likeness " on a side of a game.

I track the results of what would happen if you FADE the Top % pick each day and the results are pretty alarming.

I will share with you the last 3 weeks results ( 22 games because there was an exact consensus on one day )

N.C State -2.5          (won by 2)      73.43%  
Ball state -2             (lost by 2)       69.67%
Syracuse -12.5  &... [More]

True love is Beating the Books!

On a day where lovers are sharing flowers, cards and chocolates, I thought I would share some insight with you.

NCAAB is arguably the most unpredictable sport out there, which combined with a ton of games can give odds makers a tough time and essentially gives us the players an advantage.

There a ton of great tools out there and I applaud Covers.com for providing a one-stop shop to find anything I am ever looking for.
But how do we know which tools are valuable and which will work over the long term?

The answer? I can't give away all my secrets but I will share the results of something I track on a regular basis.

The " trap game " or fixed match has always been a debate with bettors for years and whether or not you prescribe to it, you can make money on it.

If you use the covers-consensus tool which I feel represents a good, if not better than average betting " likeness " on a side of a game.

I track the results of what would happen if you FADE the Top % pick each day and the results are pretty alarming.

I will share with you the last 3 weeks results ( 22 games because there was an exact consensus on one day )

N.C State -2.5          (won by 2)      73.43%  
Ball state -2             (lost by 2)       69.67%
Syracuse -12.5  &... [More]