On a day where lovers are sharing flowers, cards and chocolates, I thought I would share some insight with you.
NCAAB is arguably the most unpredictable sport out there, which
combined with a ton of games can give odds makers a tough time and
essentially gives us the players an advantage.
There a ton of great tools out there and I applaud Covers.com for
providing a one-stop shop to find anything I am ever looking for.
But how do we know which tools are valuable and which will work over the long term?
The answer? I can't give away all my secrets but I will share the results of something I track on a regular basis.
The " trap game " or fixed match has always been a debate with bettors
for years and whether or not you prescribe to it, you can make money on
it.
If you use the covers-consensus tool which I feel represents a good, if
not better than average betting " likeness " on a side of a game.
I track the results of what would happen if you
FADE the Top % pick each day and the results are pretty alarming.
I will share with you the last 3 weeks results ( 22 games because there was an exact consensus on one day )
N.C State -2.5 (won by 2) 73.43%
Ball state -2 (lost by 2) 69.67%
Syracuse -12.5 (lost by 22) 69.97%
W Illinois -3.5 (lost by 8) 69.28%
Illinois -4 (lost by 3) 74.33%
Cornell -4.5 (lost by 7) 66.49%
UConn -5.5 (lost by 1) 74.05%
S Alabama -3.5 (lost by 6) 72.40%
N Arizona -3.5 (won by 11) 62.70%
Creighton -5 (lost by 8) 71.25%
Memphis -6 (lost by 3) 70.39%
Idaho -4.5 (lost by 3) 69.86%
Fairfield -3 (won by 4) 66.53%
Uconn -3 (won by 2) 70.07%
Utah -4 (lost by 5) 70.06%
Vermont -11.5 (won by 25) 65.00%
Delaware St -4 (won by 8 ) 66.53%
N Iowa -2 (lost by 8) 59.86%
Mich -2 (won by 9) 68.65%
Florida Int -2 (lost by 4) 70.26%
Princeton -3 (won by 30) 69.55%
Memphis -2.5 (won by 6) 68.05%
Couple interesting numbers:
15/22 correct
9/9 correct when 70%+
All these plays are dogs and 13/25 won outright.
The play tonight would be Kansas State +5.5. 79.10%