Randizzle21's Blog

A few Week 10 Write-Ups

By Randizzle21 | View all Posts
Posted Thursday, October 30, 2008 03:39 AM

1 comment

Game 1
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AIR FORCE (6 - 2) at ARMY (3 - 5)
Week 10 Saturday, 11/1/2008 12:00 PM

In a rivalry game where it is obvious that both teams know eachothers game plan (running), people are curious why I choose this game on the board when "It could go either way". Well the fact is that any game can go any way. I.E. Stanford beating USC last year. There is no such thing as a sure game, but there are games that you can find value in and statistically have an advatage when choosing the right team.

We know both teams can rush the ball, and do it well but the Falcons have the edge. They are averaging 291 Rushing yards/game and 347/game on the Road. Army is very impressive as well on the ground with 247 yards/game, but at home that drops off too 217 yards/game. This may not seem like much, but that's a difference of 130ypg between the two teams given the current situation.

As far as passing goes, it is almost not even worth noting due to the fact both teams are averaging less than 10 attempts/game.

The one stat (and possibly most important stat in Football) that lured me into this game more than any is Turnovers. Air Force is a well disciplined team that takes care of the ball. They have 10 Giveaways this season and 18 takeaways. nearly a 2to1 ratio on the + side for them. On the other side, Army is not as efficient. They have give the ball away 17 times this season while only managing 9 Takeaways. That alone tells me Airforce should have 2 to 3 more possesions and opportunity to score than Army on Saturday. Also, the Falcons have had 2 extra days to prepare for this game (doesn't seem like much, but every bit helps).

AIR FORCE is 14-5 ATS in all games over the last 2 seasons
AIR FORCE is 11-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 19-7 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
ARMY is 0-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons
ARMY is 4-14 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games

AIR FORCE is 10-6 against the spread versus ARMY
AIR FORCE is 2-0 against the spread versus ARMY over the last 3 seasons

Calhoun is 11-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins as the coach of AIR FORCE.

Key Trends in Reference to the Line:
Air Force Falcons are 29-15-0 ATS All Games (7 -> 9.5)
Air Force Falcons are 14-6-0 ATS After 1 ATS Wins (7 -> 9.5)
Air Force Falcons are 17-6-0 ATS After 1 Home (7 -> 9.5)
Air Force Falcons are 16-7-0 ATS vs. Army (All Lines)

Head-Head
When the line was 7 -> 9.5- AF- 04-01-00 (80.0%)

My Power Ratings:
Air Force: 34th
Army: 110th

My Effiency Ratings:
Air Force: 39th
Army: 93rd

I am Taking Air Force -9 (4 Units)

*-8.5 is available, but I grabbed this early so I'm stuck with 9.

GL, Dizz

Game 2
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FLORIDA (6 - 1) vs. GEORGIA (7 - 1)
Week 10 Saturday, 11/1/2008 3:30 PM
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"Georgia, winning at LSU last week and having to get ready for a swamp full of angry Gators in Jacksonville. Georgia pulled some chicanery last season making Florida mad. Last year’s game was a blow to the ego of Urban Meyer is not about to let something like that pass. Florida has owned this SEC showdown, with 15-3 record and 11-6-1 ATS mark, though the Gators are just 1-7 ATS off two or more home games. Watch for the favorite who is just 1-5-1 ATS the last 7 years. For those that already know who the winner is, back them, since the SU winner is 22-3-1 ATS." Florida has the fastest receiving corps in the Nation, and I believe they will show it this weekend. Urban Meyer and the Gators are going to be lookng to embarass this Georgia team to get revenge for last year. The turnover ratio for these teams is fairly even with Florida having the slightest of an advantage. YPR, Florida takes the cake but not by much.

Play On - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (FLORIDA) - after allowing 9 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 24 points or more in the first half last game.
(53-22 since 1992.) (70.7%)
Over the last 3 seasons the situation's record is: (9-4).
Over the last 5 seasons the situation's record is: (11-5).

FLORIDA is 12-3 ATS in road games vs. excellent ball control teams, 32 or more possession minutes/game
FLORIDA is 6-0 ATS after having won 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons.

FLORIDA is 10-6 against the spread versus GEORGIA
FLORIDA is 13-3 straight up against GEORGIA

Meyer is 11-2 ATS vs. good teams - outscoring opponents by 10+ PPG on the season as the coach of FLORIDA.

My Power Ratings:
Florida: 1st
Georgia: 13th

My Effiency Rating:
Florida: 2nd
Georgia: 29th

I am Taking Florida -5 (3 Units)

GL, Dizz

Game 3
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TCU (8 - 1) at UNLV (3 - 5)
Week 10 Saturday, 11/1/2008 8:00 PM
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To me this game is simple. TCU has not allowed more than 7 points in their last 4 games, and they are allowing an average of just 10.4 ppg. On the other side, UNLV is allowing 33ppg. TCU's only loss this year is to the powerhouse Oklahoma, and their 13-7 victory over Colorado St. was without their starting QB. This game should not be within 21 points IMO.

TCU is 11-2 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 8-0 ATS off 2 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 3 seasons.
TCU is 8-0 ATS after scoring 20 points or more in the first half in 2 straight games over the last 3 seasons.
UNLV is 3-12 ATS in home games off a cover where the team lost as an underdog

TCU is 3-1 against the spread versus UNLV

My Power Rankings:
TCU: 9th
UNLV: 71st

My Effiency Rating:
TCU: 6th
UNLV: 86th

I am Taking TCU -13 (3 Units)

GL, Dizz

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User:	Randizzle21
Joined:	September 2007
Location:	United States
Team:	Green Bay Packers
Occupation:	Student

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