Reach's Blog

Ravens +700 to Win the Division

By Reach | View all Posts
Posted Friday, December 24, 2010 06:27 PM   28 comments

This looks like it has great value and nice hedge opportunities ahead.  I see the Ravens being the 5 seed and Jets as the 6 seed as wildcards.  I believe hedge apportunities will come about since the Ravens should not be underdogs in any of their playoff games, by more than 3 points. 

1st round playoffs - Ravens will likely face the Colts.  Although you can never count out Manning, I think the Ravens will control this game from the beginning.

Then, in the 2nd round, I see the Ravens facing the Patriots.  Everyone is on Brady to take the Pats to the Superbowl.  However, from the last two matchups with the Ravens and Pats, Ravens won the 1st won and in the 2nd matchup were up 20-10 in the 4th quarter and then blew it.  I like the Ravens chances here.

Finally, in the last game, here is where I would hedge my bet.  I think the Ravens play the Steelers (again) and the winner (Ravens or Steelers )will win by 3 points. 

Thanks for considering this opportunity. 

28 comments
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Reach says:
12/24/10 06:27PM
Should be Conference, not Division. 
Reach says:
12/29/10 10:14PM
Got this at +700, now at +500.  Ravens probably have to get through the Colts, Steelers, and Patriots all on the road. 
BIGfnPOO says:
12/29/10 10:20PM
pats win it all vs saints
UKCrazyDave says:
12/29/10 10:58PM

Hey Reach,

This is a pretty bad value bet unless there is some chaos in the AFC North this weekend. As you point out they will probably have to win 3 road games and will be dogs in each one. You can work out that Even money parlayed 3 times is +700. As they will be plus money in each contest the actual price for them to win the conference should be a lot higher than +700.

In affect you are paying an enourmous tax for the shot of them winning the AFC North or I guess the Jets getting to the Championship game, where Ravens would get homefield and be favoured. Neither of which are likely scenarios.

 

Reach says:
12/30/10 02:51AM

UK.  I think the Ravens will be dogs by no more than 3 points vs the Colts, Steelers, and Pats.  I just like how they're playing and think they win easily vs the Colts to start.  Vs the Steelers and Pats, they have a great shot at winning.   

Ravens already beat the Steelers once and were winning most of the 2nd game, until Polamalu created the turnover in the 4th.  And the Ravens have already faced the Patriots this year, and they had a great shot at winning that game.  I like my chances here.

I will probably hedge the 2nd and 3rd rounds of the afc playoffs if they make it this far. 

 

Niners13 says:
12/30/10 11:42AM
I don't see value or a good hedge.  They could be bigger dogs against the pats than 3.


Jwerd69 says:
12/30/10 07:57PM
They won't be bigger dogs than 3 vs New England
Niners13 says:
12/30/10 08:17PM
you kids think its going to be -3 pats at home.

this is not last year.

baltimore will have to blowout indy. still don't see it
SteelCash says:
12/30/10 10:08PM
Baltimore will beat Indy if they meet.
revengeissweet1 says:
12/31/10 07:17AM

Last two times Baltimore has gone to Indy:

20-3 Colts

31-3 Colts

Reach says:
01/03/11 01:41AM

Liking this bet more with Ravens playing at the Chiefs (instead of at the Colts) to Start.   

Niners13 says:
01/03/11 10:09AM
Yeah can't wait to see Baltimore lose to KC now.


Does everyone still think NE will only be -3 vs Bal next game......


lol

btw, you can get ravens at +1000 now
Maverick11 says:
01/03/11 10:16AM

If Baltimore Wins, they will play Pittsburgh. 

NE was -3.5 when Baltimore dominated them in the playoffs last year, and -3 earlier this season.  Both at home. 

Niners13 says:
01/03/11 10:32AM
ugh, if indy wins and bal wins, baltimore plays ne.

Early in the season means nothing now, If you think the line will be really low then +1000 has value NOW.  not +700


Maverick11 says:
01/03/11 10:36AM

ratherBgambling says:
01/03/11 11:22AM

Reach says:
01/10/11 01:13AM
Ravens +700 to win the division is still alive.  Now it's on to Pitt next week.  Line is currently Ravens +3.5.  I don't think I will hedge this bet since this game will be decided by a field goal to 4 points by someone.  I like my chances with the Ravens.  Flacco has legitimate receivers to throw to in Mason, Boldin, and Heap to take adavantage of the Steelers suspect corners.
shrimp1958 says:
01/10/11 10:29PM

the witch is dead..thanks Jets...

nc1capper says:
01/10/11 10:31PM
looks solid- hedge may be in order
Reach says:
01/10/11 11:06PM

I may wait until the 2nd half to hedge anything on Pittsburg.  Big Ben is clutch and Troy has a chance to make a big play.  Hoping for a Ravens lead in the first half. 

SteelCash says:
01/11/11 12:22AM


This is a different year and different teams. 
Niners13 says:
01/11/11 09:37AM
You still think NE will/would be -3, -3.5 vs Bal lol

it be nice.

Have Ravens +1600 x 2
hit_a_parlay says:
01/11/11 12:04PM
KktdocT says:
01/11/11 12:09PM
It's a good wager.
cubicman says:
01/11/11 01:51PM
rangerz2478 says:
01/11/11 03:01PM
Whoa, whoa. whoa, you made this bet BEFORE the playoffs started? No offense but you got a HORRIBLE price. You guys need to learn to shop around. The Ravens were +1200 on matchbook before the playoffs started. Hell, RIGHT NOW you can get them at +600 to win the conference so the +700 you got before the playoffs started was short to say the least.
rangerz2478 says:
01/11/11 03:06PM


You want him to hedge a +700 bet with a current value of +600?
rangerz2478 says:
01/11/11 03:07PM
With all this being said, I think they have a VERY decent chance to beat the Steelers and then who knows. So I have nothing against the idea of you taking the Ravens to win the conference, but you got ripped off severely.
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User: Reach
Joined: February 2009
Location: California
Team: San Diego Chargers
Occupation: Accounting/Finance

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