RedFlagCapper's Blog

Posted Sunday, July 21, 2013 06:49 PM

CFL Picks

1. Ham/Sask under 60 (5*)
2. Ham/Sask 1st half under 30 (4*)
3. Teaser: Ham +14 and under 6


Posted Friday, April 19, 2013 02:30 AM

Who's been riding this money train with me?

I've been tracking the over/under against the actual posted opening line the entire season and so far this month, it's gone: 49-66-17. By backing the under I have a 37.12% chance of losing.

On top of this, I've been slamming the grand salami with a record of: 4-13-0

All those people who love overs, please keep these lines honest and keep slamming those over totals for me.



Posted Friday, April 19, 2013 02:06 AM

Money Train Trend

I've been tracking the over/under against the actual posted opening line and so far it's gone:

49-66-17

On top of this, I've been slamming the grand salami with a record of:

4-13-0

Over backers, please keep these lines honest and keep slamming those over totals

Posted Friday, April 19, 2013 02:06 AM

Money Train

I've been tracking the over/under against the actual posted opening line and so far it's gone: 49-66-17

On top of this, I've been slamming the grand salami with a record of: 4-13-0

Over backers, please keep these lines honest and keep slamming those over totals



Posted Friday, April 19, 2013 02:04 AM

I've been riding this money train trend the entire month

I've been tracking the over/under against the actual posted opening line and so far it's gone:

49-66-17

On top of this, I've been slamming the grand salami with a record of:

4-13-0

Over backers, please keep these lines honest and keep slamming those over totals






Posted Saturday, March 23, 2013 01:53 PM

Back with Picks - Saturday

Away Goals +2.5 and ML (POD)
Grand Salami under 49 (POD)



Posted Tuesday, March 12, 2013 06:58 PM

Tuesday Picks

Grand Salami under 60.5
Vancouver -0.5
NY Rangers -0.5
Washington ML


Posted Monday, March 11, 2013 09:59 PM

Late Night Pick

Calgary/LA Kings under 5


Posted Sunday, March 10, 2013 12:27 PM

Spring Forward Picks

Home Goals -2.5 (POD)


Posted Saturday, March 09, 2013 12:55 PM

Saturday Early Picks

Grand Salami over 55.5 (POD)


Posted Friday, March 08, 2013 06:48 PM

TGIF Picks

I have a POD today

Grand Salami under 27.5 (POD)


Here are my other plays:

NY Rangers -0.5 (+106) - Risk 1 unit
Will Senators and Rangers go to OT? - YES (+309) - To win 1 unit

I may have a few other picks depending on how these picks go.



Posted Thursday, March 07, 2013 10:32 PM

Late Night Pick

Didn't have time to post my picks today.  Just got home and on the computer now.  Last pick for the night.  Vegas really adjusted those over/under lines today based on Tuesday night when everything but the kitchen sink went over.

Dallas/LA Kings under 5


Posted Wednesday, March 06, 2013 07:00 PM

Early Game Picks

No POD's today, games can go either way tonight:

Grand Salami under 21.5
Ottawa/Toronto under 5






Posted Tuesday, March 05, 2013 04:42 PM

Tuesday POD Picks

11 games in the NHL, lots to love on today's card.  Will try to limit games but will also provide some leans.  I will keep watching the line until game time to make it a final pick.  It's make or break time, almost half way through the season.  No time to dabble here and there.

Grand Salami over 59.5 (POD)
Home Goals -1.5 (POD)

Edmonton/Columbus over 5.5 - Hoping to see some goals here. I love that it is + money here also.

Tampa Bay/New Jersey under 6 - I'm buying it up 0.5 goals from 5.5 to be safe but 5.5 is a safe bet also. NJ should not score more than 3 goals.  May dabble a little on NJ team total u2.5.

Buffalo ML - Looking for an upset here. Carolina is sky high sweeping Florida so this can be a letdown spot for them plus Cam Ward being injured is surely a letdown.

NY Islanders -1 - Bad match-up here for Montreal.  Don't the odds seem a little strange to you?  Montreal is moving closer to even money after beating the Bruins and now playing the awful Islanders at home.  I'll take a chance here.  Plus Montreal has alternated wins and losses the past 7 games.

Still working on the other games but I have leans towards Philly ML, Detroit team total over 3 and Minny/Chicago under 5.  Will try to limit some of these games and if all goes well, could there be a Minny upset?



... [More]

Posted Monday, March 04, 2013 08:49 PM

9pm Picks

Phoenix ML
Phoenix -1



Posted Saturday, March 02, 2013 12:02 PM

Early Game Picks

Pick 1: Away Goals +2.5 and ML
Pick 2: Grand Salami under 48.5
Pick 3: Philadelphia -0.5
Pick 4: Ottawa/Philadelphia under 5.5



Posted Friday, March 01, 2013 07:56 PM

FRIDAY - NHL PICKS

Pick 1: Grand Salami under 15.5
Pick 2: Home Goals -2.5
Pick 3: St. Louis -0.5

Parlay: St. Louis ML and Chicago ML



Posted Thursday, February 28, 2013 07:01 PM

Wednesday Picks

GS under 60.5
Ottawa/Boston under 5

Toronto ML
TB ML



Posted Wednesday, February 27, 2013 07:23 PM

Rivalry Night Picks

Pick 1: Grand Salami under 21.5
Pick 2: Montreal/Toronto under 5
Pick 3: Montreal ML
Pick 4: Philadelphia TT under 3



Posted Tuesday, February 26, 2013 05:01 PM

Tuesday NHL with Analysis

Don't always have time to do these type of write-ups but I will provide them as these will be my POD's:

Pick 1: Home Goals -1.5 - The sides are beginning to turn.  Home teams are starting to dominate and pull away from the pack.

Pick 2: Buffalo/TB under 6 - TB has posted a 9-1 record with 6 total goals or more in a game. So why go against this trend?  This is the 3rd straight game where the total has been posted at 6 for TB though.  All others were at 5.5.  Previous two both went over the total with ease.  No problem. But wait, those two were against Carolina and Pittsburgh (home) who rank 6th and 2nd in GF in the league and TB gives up tons of goals on the road so this line can be justified.  In tonight's game though, Buffalo ranks 21st in GF and TB allows much less goals at home. Buffalo has also gone under the total of 5.5 the last 3 games.  So what do odds-makers do?  They post even greater odds to the over than they did in Carolina and Pittsburgh?  Are you trying to entice me to take the over?  I'm not buying it.  The only way this goes over the total is if TB makes this total go over by themselves.  I may even take a bite on the TB ML and the regulation line at -0.5.

PDO Shot %: Buffalo 0.138 to TB 0.82. Total mismatch.

Other games and leans I'm tracking:

Washington ML
Calgary ML
Winnipeg ML
Boston -0.5
San Jose -0.5
Dallas/Columbus under 5.5
Pittsburgh/Flor... [More]

Posted Monday, February 25, 2013 05:45 PM

Monday Picks with Analysis

Pick 1: Home Goal -1.5 - The sides are starting to turn. The home teams are starting to dominate.

Pick 2: Philadelphia -0.5 - Toronto ranks 4th in PDO (1.025) in the league and that's very high for a Toronto team. This indicates they rely on their goalie way too much.  Philadelphia has played 20 games so far and only 8 has been at home. I expect them to turn things around with a more favourable home schedule coming around.  Philadelphia raanks 21st ranks 21st in PDO (0.990) and that's low for such a talented team.

Pick 3: Montreal/Ottawa under 5 - These teams ranks 2nd and 4th in GA.  Yes, both teams have been scoring above average lately scoring 3 or more goals in the last couple of games (Last 3 for Ottawa, last 5 for Montreal).  I'm totally aware of this and others may be too and this is why I'm liking the under more.
... [More]

Posted Sunday, February 24, 2013 03:04 PM

Sunday NHL Picks

Pick #1: Grand Salami under 45.5

This can go either way today but I will stick with the under.


Posted Saturday, February 23, 2013 12:46 PM

Saturday NHL Picks

I have the Grand Salami at under 65.5 today. Didn't have time to post in time.  Beauty sleep on the weekend is more important.

Pick #1: Winnipeg/Philadelphia under 6


Posted Friday, February 22, 2013 05:35 PM

Friday NHL Picks

Pick #1: Grand Salami under 16.5
Pick #2: Florida/Pittsburgh under 5.5 and 6
Pick #3: Pittsburgh TT under 3.5

Parlay: Florida/Pittsburgh under 6.5 and San Jose/Chicago under 6.5 (+115)


Posted Monday, February 18, 2013 02:59 AM

Stat Fact of the Day

Based on my calculations, there have been 217 games played so far since the lockout ended and the over/under 5.5 has gone 95-122 That's 43.8% to the over and 56.2% to the under with 1 game pushing at 6 and 12 others pushing at 5.




Posts:  1 2 3  

Profile

User: RedFlagCapper
Joined: September 2010
Location:
Team:
Occupation:

Recent Posts

Archive

Categories