RickDaRulah's Blog

To hedge or not to hedge?

By RickDaRulah | View all Posts
Posted Monday, January 30, 2012 06:13 AM

41 comments

Fellas,

I have the Giants ML +2100...should hedge and grab Patriots ML -140 at $980 to win $700 to guarantee myself some coin?

I would be a fool not to...but wanted to get your opinions.

Either way, if Giants win, I win $1120 and if Pats win, I win $700 (less $100 Giants wager).

Thoughts? Let it ride? Thanks and good luck fellas

PROP

SUPERBOWL XLVI WINNER
[53214] NEW YORK GIANTS +2100

100 / 2100

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dl36 says:

01/30/12 06:40AM

bet 2100 on NE money line if you think they are going win...

let it ride if you think NYG is going to win...

Bill_Stax says:

01/30/12 07:42AM

These questions come up often and most bettors don't know how to think about them. A key concept can help define the problem: risk aversion.

It's all about how risk averse you are. In other words your whole situation outside of this bet comes into play. If you were a billionaire with no worries then you should only hedge if the hedge is a good stand alone bet. If you were penniless you would max hedge. If you have money to pay the bills then I would, for psychological reasons, just hedge enough to cover my initial bet.

Madden says:

01/30/12 07:50AM

If this is how you feel then the choice is obvious...

"I would be a fool not to...but wanted to get your opinions."

IMO make sure you leave the giants side at least 2/3 more valuable. (That is if you think they are winning).

The NFL is pretty random. A bounce here a bounce there. Take some coin.

I'm in the exact same spot on giants futures. Likely going for a break even on futures on pats only.

Madden says:

01/30/12 07:52AM

Bill also makes a good point...

A lot depends on how big of a win $700 would be for you.

Will this add to your bankroll and double it?

sports_Network says:

01/30/12 09:14AM

of course you hedge! it's obvious, you've already figured it out, your in a position of 'advantage' not risk......may you prosper on Sunday

pistol589 says:

01/30/12 09:44AM

I'd do the max hedge of laying the $1285 to guarantee a net of $815, and enjoy the game knowing you make out nice either way.

mattbrot says:

01/30/12 10:19AM

so many variables involved to know what is the best decision for you.

My opinion is that you should never pass up on free money.

loulo13 says:

01/30/12 10:25AM

You always hedge...........I played myself last year.

I had Baltimore to win the AFC Championship on a futures of course. Their up 21-0 at the half, I let it ride........Nuff Said.....We all know the outcome.

Put less on the Patriots since you think the Giants are going to win, so you at least have something to root for.

It's hard enough picking a winner on a week to week. Take the cash and run.

vegasslim says:

01/30/12 10:28AM

i bet giants at 25-1 before the playoffs started i am letting it ride i felt like they had a shot then and i still do gl whatever u do

cd2010 says:

01/30/12 10:40AM

Make something, don't be greedy, atleast make back your investment, at this point there is no reason you lose anything, it is hard to win at handicapping, take guaranteed money over losing anything (even just $100) Loulo13 said he was in the same position, didn't hedge and lost, I bet he will never do that again. (Learn from his mistake) Enjoy winning on Sunday.

wil168 says:

01/30/12 11:35AM

I had the same bet and was thinking about this over the past week. It is not that I have no confidence that Gmen would win but there's always that possibility it would go the other way. So I've decided to hedge just enough to cover my Gmen bet. So if Gmen wins I win but less the $140 I put on Pats ML. And if the damn Pats wins I walk away nor a winner or a loser.
Minimize damage control is all I'm doing at this point. Most of all Enjoy the SB and Go Gmen!

chef702 says:

01/30/12 12:23PM

Parlay the Pats with the over.

Vesco says:

01/30/12 12:30PM

Where did you find Giants ML +2100??? My book has the Giants ML+120. On a game where the Giants only -3 who would give ML +2100?????

touchdownjaysus says:

01/30/12 01:55PM

my suggestion is to play the scenarios out in your head or on paper and look at the figures you'd be dealing with if the worst happened (pats win)

if you'd be devestated betting 140/100 on the pats, then....

bet 280/200. if you'd still be destroyed and be late on bills, then...

bet 420/300

and so on.... you still want to be super interested in the game and feel like you've got a lot on the line.... that's the burn of adreneline we all love.... but you've got to hedge just to guarantee yourself some cash. Unless you really don't need the money, then just sit back and root for the GMen.

flaco111 says:

01/30/12 02:15PM

I bet the Giants at 30-1 for right before their game with NO because I thought the Giants had value, then after they got crushed I waited until they lost to GB and when the odds went to 100-1 I put a little more on it.

I'm going to hedge a little, but I really think the Giants are gonna win this game...at any rate, wait to hedge becasue all of the money is going on the Giants and the Pats ML will get better for you as the game gets closer

uclalumnus says:

01/30/12 02:19PM

Agree with pistol. Good luck!

Makaveli1 says:

01/30/12 03:19PM

Let it ride Slick Rick Da Rula!!! I am probably on the Pats but no one knows the final score here. I say go with it a make the most coin. Hedging can be smart depending on what the amount means to you.

Damn, I miss Slick Rick. Is he still in prison?

BOL bro!

donk says:

01/30/12 04:12PM

I am in the same boat!....have a 4 team parley with only Giant +120 ML to win $1,420 .........Hedge is the correct way to go!........I really like the Giants!.....this game will come down to who has the ball last......and its going to be the defense winning the game.....not Brady or Eli.......can the Pats stop the rush or can Giants get to Brady!.......I feel a defense score will win this game........I still have time to think about the Hedge or let it ride.............

donk says:

01/30/12 04:17PM

one more thing......if you let it ride.......this game will be more FUN

..........if you win.....its all

or NOTHING

GO GIANTS!

............GL

RickDaRulah says:

01/31/12 12:06AM

Bills, great point. the more I think about it...i'd rather walk away with "something" rather than "nothing"...especially if its free money.

I feel like I'm playing "Deal or No Deal"

Thanks and good luck with your SB play.

RickDaRulah says:

01/31/12 12:11AM

Madden - $700 wouldn't exactly double my bankroll, but it would be just enough to get me out of the red for the NFL season. Thanks

SteelCash says:

01/31/12 01:18AM

Hedge

Think of it this way: Somebody walks up to you on the street and hands you $700. Then he says to you, "You can keep this $700 and walk away, or you can bet it all on a coin flip. But if you win the bet, I'll give you another $1,400 in addition to the $700 that you have in your hand. However if you lose the coin flip, I take back the $700, and you get nothing."

Like you said... you'd be a fool not to. And judging from your comment that it would get you "out of the red", you need to hedge my friend.

ShadowWarrior says:

01/31/12 01:28AM

to me you always hedge to insure a profit. without hedging you have a lot to gain with a small risk. by hedging you assure yourself of some gain and no risk. to me there would be no decision.

BIGfnPOO says:

01/31/12 02:25AM

hedge anything,something...be a sure winner, kick back relax...never leave $ outhere. not to be a hex,but alas the last 6 ,six !!! times i have hedged from the sf/nyg game to the bears minn in oct. i have only caught the small end!! you hedge you never feel stupid. GUARANTEED $$$$>>., but as the famous johnny the chink sez...never hedge son.

BIGfnPOO says:

01/31/12 02:26AM

o yea you will enjoy the game better lighting up a cigar and actually having a blast not caring so much who wins...! thats more fun$$$

GAIMDAY_LUKE says:

01/31/12 04:53AM

http://experts.covers.com/includes/article_ce.aspx?theArt=263269

Elias26 says:

01/31/12 10:39AM

Great write up Steel Cash I totally w' u & Flace 111, BOL whatever you all do w' your futures......

rob456 says:

01/31/12 11:03AM

SteelCash says:

01/31/12 02:18AM

Hedge

Like you said... you'd be a fool not to. And judging from your comment that it would get you "out of the red", you need to hedge my friend.

--> who wouldn't tale a coin flip paying 2-1?

Vesco says:

01/31/12 12:26PM

Who the hell gave you Giants +2100 on the ML?????????

stewbaker says:

01/31/12 02:45PM

Think of it this way. The Pats are -140, and the Giants are +120, so, without geting technical, the chop price is about 130. Your position as it now stands is you have roughly $957 on the Giants to win roughly $1243. Now, forget for a minute that you have this future. Answer for yourself, based on how you see the game, the question of how much, if at all, of a position you want on the Giants. Then make whatever bet is necessary to adjust your current position to the position you want.

TSD04GT says:

01/31/12 08:18PM

Rick - Congratulations! I thought I had it tough with Giants +550...

I vote hedge but how much depends on what the game means to you. If you're a Giants fan, this is tough. Personally, I think the Giants are going to win in a similar fashion to against Green Bay. But, as you know, NOTHING is a lock. We're lucky the NYG fumble wasn't over turned against SF in the 4th quarter.

You can either hedge and maximize profit with both scenarios or hedge in favor of the Giants (60/40, 70/30). Personally, I'm competitive and would prefer one outcome to outweigh the other.

I'm ONLY letting mine ride ($100 +550) because I bet $100 on the Giants against Atlanta, Green Bay and San Francisco so my wager has already been collected.

Let us know how you hedge. I suggest making a small hedge now. You can ALWAYS increase your hedge closer to kickoff. You may also change your mind... BOL!

TSD04GT says:

01/31/12 08:27PM

In addition to my short story above, it also depends how much you have in your account and how much you typically wager. I'm assuming you have over $1k in your account so maybe you only hedge enough to profit $200 or $300... Get pissed if NE wins. It's more fun that way. As a Cowboys fan, the Giants are legit.

Note, I still regret not hedging my Rangers WS Future last season...

daysbtwin says:

01/31/12 08:02PM

Yes... if anything do this.

Throw 140bucks or whatever on the Pats ML just so you are guaranteed not to lose money. Let the rest ride.

Werker says:

01/31/12 02:51PM

Staxx has it right...there's no "right" answer here. It's all about pain tolerance and tolerance of variance.

If I offered you the Giants at +2100 right now, but told you that you could only have the bet if it was your only action on the game, your only question should be how much action I'd take. You already have a good bet.

Have a good one no matter what you decide.

Vesco says:

02/01/12 12:03PM

Rick please educate me!!! Where did you get the Giants +2100 ML????? How???

silentthread says:

01/31/12 08:30PM

Hedge!

I've always done this, it pays off!

Think if it like this....

Some offers...

1-Offers you $500 dollars

2-Flip a coin and get $1000 or nothing.

Hedge, and you will enjoy the SuperBowl.

Bet on something else if you are bored, like some players props

Parlayed says:

02/02/12 09:04PM

That's why Hedge Funds usually make a profit. And why there not called Gambling Funds. I'm a Hedge Hog and do it almost every chance I get.

12pk says:

02/01/12 11:21AM

frist you should wait until later in the week now you are at -145 too-135. may get pats -130. allways take profit when you have the oppertunity. believe best play is too hedge just 30%. good pay out either way . i am in oppisite position. had dallas at 20 -1 and new england at 4.5-1. will be playing giants +120 if gonk does not look good in warmups. good luck

ChOdaZ says:

01/31/12 07:55PM

hedge enough to win you original bet back

harvick_29 says:

01/31/12 08:14PM

IF YOU DON'T HAVE CONFIDENCE IN THE GIANT'S WINNING WHY DID YOU MAKE THE BET IN THE FIRST PLACE

nkaptain says:

02/04/12 11:48PM

I feel ya..I took the giants after they beat the jets for 100 at +3250....any recommendations for a newcomer?

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