2011-2012 Divisional playoffs : NO @ SF

Game : New Orleans @ San Francisco
Pick : SF 49ers + 3.5

A classic matchup featuring the high powered offense of the Saints vs the stout defense of the SF 49ers.

 A lot of the focus has been on offense and defense respectively, the somewhat overlooked special teams may be the difference here. The punting of Andy Lee has been a key factor all year long in the 49ers success, and Akers has had a great season.
 These two guys may be the key !

Good luck !

Wild card weekend : Detroit @ New Orleans

Good day to you all !

Game : Detroit Lions @ New orleans
Pick : New Orleans - 10.5

Detroit Lions are in the playoffs for the first time since 1999 
These Lions will be an attractive underdog pick for a lot of people in this forum and across countless of sportsbooks all over.
Here is what we hear :
- It's hard to beat the same team twice in one year
( never mind , it happens ) 
- Detroit lost that regular season encounter because they shot themselves in the foot
( well, that's what inexperienced teams do, and even more so in the playoffs -11 penalties for 107 yards is not a recipe for success and certainly not an excuse for losing )
- Ndamukong Suh did not play in the first game 
( He did not, but he was in the lineup when Matt Flynn threw for nearly 500 yards and 6 touchdowns for Green Bay ! )

New Orleans is riding an 8 game winning streak in which they covered every one of those games winning last three heading into the playoffs by 28, 29, and 22 points.

You want momentum , you got it.

You just won't find a hotter team than these New Orleans Saints.

New Orleans lost 2 of their last 3 games heading into the playoffs last season and were shocked by the Seahawks in the wild card game.
This is the motivational tool to add the final ingredient for this matchup.
New Orleans defense has not given up more than 24 points to anyone outside of the shocker... [More]

2010-2011 NFL playoffs: New Orleans @ Seattle

Hey everyone...

The NFL playoffs get started today with a rare opportunity as the ( 7-9 ) Seattle Seahawks welcome the reigning  Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints ( 11-5 ) at Qwest field.

Let me make this plain and simple: This is a total mismatch

The idea that Qwest field is a serious advantage for Seattle today is quickly dispelled by virtue of the home team's record at this stadium and the visitor's record on the road.
Seattle has a predictable record at home ( 5-3 )  having beaten SF, SD, Ariz, Car, Stl ...all of which are out of the playoffs. The teams that Seattle has beaten finished with a combined 29-51 record .
On the other hand, the 3 losses at home by Seattle were against teams with a combined 33-15 record. Most importantly is the fact that Seattle was outscored by a combined 49-117 points at Qwest field against these opponents. In the closest game, they still lost by 16 points.
Home field advantage quickly evaporates when solid teams come marching in .
As the visitor, The NO Saints are a solid 6-2 SU having outscored their opponents 171-102 , an 11.5 point differential per game.
As the Saints began to hit their stride, they had to face Dallas, Cincinnati, Baltimore , and Atlanta on the road. now, they won 3 of those 4 games and some by the slimmest of margins.
However, Cincinnati played reasonably well towards the end of the season winning 2 of 3 and losing the last game by a slim margin. Da... [More]

Trends & Things week 11 MNF edition 2010-2011 + after-bye trend

Hey everyone,

Let's update the trend involving Favorites that are coming off a bye week >>>
San Diego is the last team to play a game following a bye this year .
Therefore , I'll take this opportunity to update on the results for favorites coming off a bye for the 2010-2011 season

Here is the update for favored teams coming off a bye >>

( For specifics about prior years , please refer to week 8's thread on the same subject ))

There have been 15 teams that have been favored coming off a bye in the 2010-2011 season ( there will be 16 )

The record stands at 8-5-2 ATS for the year...with one game left on the schedule.
Basically, we're looking at either 9-5-2 ATS or 8-6-2 ATS, unless there is a push> Covers final scores dictates the actual line

Week 5 : ( 0-1-0 ATS )   Tenn @ Dallas - 6.5 ( Lost SU & ATS )   Week 6  : ( 1-0-1 ATS )   Baltimore @ NE - 3 ( Won SU & pushed ATS ) Cleveland @ Pittsburgh - 14 ( Won SU & ATS )   Week 7 :  ( 0-0-0 ATS  )   Week 8 :  ( 2-1 ATS )   Washington @ Detroit - 2.5 ( won SU & ATS ) Green Bay @ NY Jets - 6 ( lost SU & ATS ) Houston @ Indianapolis - 5.5 ( Won SU & ATS )   Week 9 : ( 2-2-1 ATS  )    Tampa Bay @ Atlanta - 10 ( Atlanta won SU & Lost ATS ) Miami @ Baltimore -5 ( Baltimore won SU & won ATS ) Chicago - 3 @ Buffalo ( Chic... [More]

Week 11 Best Pick 2010-2011 NFL season

Hey everyone ...

This game goes off at 1:00 pm Pacific time
This game is not only a bad matchup for one team , it is also a total mismatch.
Both teams are coming off solid wins while scoring almost the same amount of points against weak opponents.
One team managed its first road win, while the other made it
3 of 4 on the road with its victory last week .
Let's get down to the teams :

Seattle and New Orleans

New Orleans is coming off a bye week on the heels of two consecutive wins.
New Orleans might have been excused for playing down to its opponent after the tough primetime battle against a top AFC team : the Pittsburgh Steelers .
What they did instead is play like world champions and stomped on their weaker opposition .
This 2010 New Orleans of the last 2 games  is looking more like the team that steamrolled through the first 13 weeks of the season last year on their way to the top of the NFL.
While this year's team may never be as explosive as last year's team , the defense is playing better.
Think about it , New Orleans allowed 13 points combined in their last 2 games, while beating the Steelers 20-10.
In last year's version of the Saints, winning a game like that would have been nearly impossible.
The Saints of 2009-2010 allowed 20 points or more to 12 of 16 opponents.
In the meantime , the offense is getting healthier and I believe will begin to feast on the weaker defenses. ... [More]

Week 11 Best Pick 2010-2011 NFL season

Hey everyone ...

This game goes off at 1:00 pm Pacific time
This game is not only a bad matchup for one team , it is also a total mismatch.
Both teams are coming off solid wins while scoring almost the same amount of points against weak opponents.
One team managed its first road win, while the other made it
3 of 4 on the road with its victory last week .
Let's get down to the teams :

Seattle and New Orleans

New Orleans is coming off a bye week on the heels of two consecutive wins.
New Orleans might have been excused for playing down to its opponent after the tough primetime battle against a top AFC team : the Pittsburgh Steelers .
What they did instead is play like world champions and stomped on their weaker opposition .
This 2010 New Orleans of the last 2 games  is looking more like the team that steamrolled through the first 13 weeks of the season last year on their way to the top of the NFL.
While this year's team may never be as explosive as last year's team , the defense is playing better.
Think about it , New Orleans allowed 13 points combined in their last 2 games, while beating the Steelers 20-10.
In last year's version of the Saints, winning a game like that would have been nearly impossible.
The Saints of 2009-2010 allowed 20 points or more to 12 of 16 opponents.
In the meantime , the offense is getting healthier and I believe will begin to feast on the weaker defenses.
Do... [More]

Week 9 Best Pick 2010-2011 NFL season

Hi everyone...

My brief opinion on the following game :
NY Giants @ Seattle

For those of you opposed to taking large road favorites, this would not be the game for you...
But, the circumstances are such that with Seattle being 3-0 at home this year, the home side having won the last 9 series games, the Giants having lost last 4 on the road against Seattle ...this only helps not to have an inflated spread, and anything under 10 is a bargain here.

 Seattle's home wins have come against teams that are 8-14 SU TY and looked anemic on offense scoring 3 points against Oakland last week obtaining only 10 first downs and rushing for only 47 yards,
That's only the begginning...Seattle got smoked in every category 
and yes Oakland got 545 total yards against the Seahawks .

Hasselbeck got sacked 6 times, and now you're throwing a QB making his first NFL start . Please !

NY Giants have already knocked 5 Qb's out of games this season and unlike NY , Seattle lacks the necessary depth to overcome its injuries .

NYG make this trip to the west coast coming off a bye , and while this team does not have a stellar record coming out of a bye, it is helpful when dealing with coast to coast travel.

Regardless, I have highlighted how well Road favorites have fared coming out of byes , and that trend has held last 8 consecutive games with Road Favorites going 8-0 ATS into this week .
Furthermore ... [More]

After bye week trend for NFL teams ( week 9 2010-2011 )

Here is the update for favored teams coming off a bye >>

( For specifics about prior years , please refer to week 8's thread on the same subject )) :
The record stands at 3-2-1 ATS for the year...

  Week 5 : ( 0-1-0 ATS ) Tenn @ Dallas - 6.5 ( Lost SU & ATS )   Week 6  : ( 1-0-1 ATS ) Baltimore @ NE - 3 ( Won SU & pushed ATS ) Cleveland @ Pittsburgh - 14 ( Won SU & ATS )   Week 7 :  ( 0-0-0 ATS  )   Week 8 :  2-1 ATS Washington @ Detroit - 2.5 ( won SU & ATS ) Green Bay @ NY Jets - 6 ( lost SU & ATS ) Houston @ Indianapolis - 5.5 ( Won SU & ATS )   There is an  8-0 ATS streak for the road favorites and there are two on the line for this upcoming week :
Chicago and New York Giants  The following highlighted teams ( 5 in bold ) will be playing off their bye week in week 9 and are favored >>>
Tampa Bay @ Atlanta - 8.5/9 Miami @ Baltimore -5 Chicago -2.5/3 @ Buffalo  New York Giants -6.5/7@ Seattle Indianapolis @ Philadelphia -3

**************************************************... [More]

After Bye week trend for NFL teams ( week 8 2010-2011)

Hey everyone !

Here is the update for favored teams coming off a bye :

The performance of all the teams coming off their bye week during the 2006-2007 season only

16 of the teams were set a favorites
Favorites : ( 16 total )   Favorites won 11 games SU & ATS ( 68.75 % ) Favorites won 1 game SU & lost ATS ( 6.25 % ) Favorites lost 4 games SU & ATS ( 25.00 % )
The spreads for the favs : -10, 7, 5.5, 6, 3, 4.5, 3, 8, 7.5, 5.5, 16, 1, 3, 3.5, 10, 9 ( 12 of them higher than 3 )

The favs that lost outright blew spreads of - 3, - 4.5, - 7.5, - 1 One more that won but didn't cover the spread : ?
This is the result for teams coming off their Bye weeks for the 2007-2008 NFL season :   18 Favorites 14 Underdogs So, how did the 18 favorites perform coming off their byes :   Favorites won 13 games SU & ATS  ( 72.2 % ) Favorites won 1 game SU  & Lost ATS  ( 5.6 % ) Favorites lost 4 games SU & ATS ( 22.2 % ) 18 of the teams were favorites  ( - 3.5 , 3.5 , 2.5 , 3, 3, 2. 5 , 1 , 3, 2, 2.5, 16, 4, 4.5 , 4.5 , 10, 3, 7.5, 4 )

In red are the spreads of 3 or less
How did these 5 favorites do ?

Now , a review of the performances of all teams coming off a bye week in the 2008-2009 season :   Results : 2008-2009 NFL season Teams coming off their bye week   16 Favorites ( 14-2 SU & 12-4 ATS ) 16 Underdogs... [More]

Week 12 NFL

Houston ML
Houston + 3
Houston 1st half
Miami 1st half
Miami
Cleveland
Cleveland 1st half  
 All 3 units
Good luck

NYG @ Denver

Happy Thanksgiving !

Game : NYG @ Denver

Pick : Denver + 3.5 ( 3 units ) 1st Half
Denver + 4.5 ( 3 units ) Game

Good Luck !

Oakland @ Dallas

Happy Thanksgiving

1-1 early game

Game : Oakland @ Dallas

Pick : Dallas - 7 ( 3 units ) 1st Half
Dallas - 13 (  3 units ) Game

Good Luck !

GB @ Detroit

Happy Thanksgiving !

Detroit 1st Half + 7 ( 3 units )
Detroit + 11.5 ( 3 units )

Good Luck !

MNF Tennessee @ Houston

Game : Titans @Texans
Picks :
1st Half : Texans - 2.5 ( 3 units )
Game : Texans - 4 ( 3 units ) 
Parlay : Houston/under ( 1 unit )

The streak for Houston not allowing a 100 yard rushed continues tonight ( possibly ) , and Houston coming off a bye will expose Vince Young and the Titans who will be 0-6 ATS against winning teams after tonight .

Good luck tonight !

Week 11 NFL selections

Hey everyone ...

Family around is keeping me busy , so I will have to be brief >

I am downgrading POW because I have lost 3 in a row ...
This will be a 2 unit play only this week . ( Oakland )
All others are 1 unit plays except Over/Unders .
Those are all 1/2 units
I will play these from 3 different sources before gametime ...
In the event I can't post lines , I will post wins , losses , or pushes based on covers final lines .
I will play most or all of these ...
Here they all count .
Good luck to all !

Week 11 :        TNF Miami @ Carolina
1 unit plays : 2-0
2 unit plays : 0-0
3 unit plays : 1-0
Ml plays : 1-0 ( + 170 )

Sunday :

Baltimore ML

Detroit 1st Half -

Oakland POW + ( 2 units )

Green Bay -
Dallas -
Jacksonville -
NY Giants -
St Louis +
Kansas City +

Indi-Bal UNDER
Cin-Oak UNDER
Sea-Minn UNDER
Ariz-Stl Over

My picks :

YTD >>>> 43-30-1 SU bets   +
1-0 ( + 170 ) ML bets

1/2 unit plays  : 1-2-0
1 unit plays : 27-18-0
2 unit plays : 9-4-0 
3 unit plays : 6-6-1 
ML bets : 1-0-0 ( + 170 )

Money management is your friend !

It's family time these days ...so I'll post when I can .
I'll update the Trends & Thi... [More]

MNF Baltimore @ Cleveland

My picks : YTD >>>> 39-29-1

1/2 unit plays  : 1-2 -0
1 unit plays : 24-18-0 2 unit plays : 9-4-0  3 unit plays : 5-5-1      Game : Baltimore @ Cleveland
Pick : Cleveland + 10.5 ( 3 units )
Under 39 ( 1 unit )

Sunday : 3-2
1 unit plays : 1-0
2 unit plays : 0-0
3 unit plays : 2-2   Money management is your friend !
Good Luck   Trend Picks update :
Week 1 :  Dogs 1-0  Favs : 0-1  Totals : 0-1  Week 2 :  Dogs : 5-1  Favs : 1-0  Totals : 1-0  Week 3 :  Dogs : 0-0  Favs : 1-0  Totals : 0-1  Week 4 :  Dogs : 0-2  Favs : 1-0  Totals : 2-3  Week 5 :  Dogs : 2-1  Favs : 3-1  Totals : 0-0  Week 6 :  Dogs : 4-0  Favs : 2-3  Totals : 0-0 Week 7 : Dogs 0-2  Favs : 2-0  Totals 1-4-1  Week 8 :  Dogs 0-1 Favs : 2-1  Totals : 0-0  Week 9 :  Dogs : 1-0  Favs : 1-2  Totals 2-3 
Week 10 :
Dogs : 2-0-1
Favs : 0-2-1
Totals : 0-1
trend picks sunday : 2-3-1

YTD : 34-30-1
Dogs : 15-7-1 Favs : 13-10-1  Totals : 6-13-1   **************************************************************
... [More]

Week 9 NFL selection of the week

Summary of my Plays of the week : 5-2-1  Reg season

Week 1 : San Diego  - 9.5 ( vs Oak )  Lost
Week 2 : Oakland + 3 ( vs KC ) WON
Week 3 : Cincinnati + 4 ( vs Pittsburgh ) WON
Week 4 : New Orleans - 7 ( vs NYJ ) WON
Week 5 : Cincinnati + 9 ( vs Baltimore ) WON
Week 6 : New Orleans  - 3 ( vs NYG ) WON
Week 7 : Houston - 3 ( vs SF )  Pushed
Week 8 : Detroit Lions - 4 ( vs St Louis ) ...Lost

******************************************************************
Week 9 :

 New England Patriots - 10.5 ( 3 units ) 

Here are the top 10 reasons why I like New England :
drumm roll please.......

10 ) Preparation for the wildcat 
9 ) Revenge from the loss last year @ home
8 ) Miami's pass defense
7 ) Miami's pass offense
6 )Tom Brady
5 ) Wes Welker
4 ) Rest ...NE comig off a bye
3 ) No mercy approach by Bellichick
2 ) New England playing @ home

and the # 1 reason >>>>
1) to impress DMDsharp  

**************************************************************************

... [More]

Trends & Things NFL week 9 2009-2010

Afer the Bye week trend :   Favorites coming off a bye are 42-17 ATS ( 71.2 % ) since the start of the 2006-2007 NFL season   2009-2010 NFL season >>   week 5 :  ( 2-1 ATS  )   Houston @ Arizona - 5.5  ...won SU & ATS Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia - 15.5  ...  won SU & ATS Washington @ Carolina - 5  ... won SU & lost ATS     Week 6 :   ( 2-1 ATS )   Detroit @ Green Bay - 13.5   won SU/ATS NYG @ New Orleans - 3.5   won SU/ATS Denver @ San Diego - 3.5 ( MNF )   Lost SU/ATS   Week 7 : ( 2-0 ATS )   Atlanta @ Dallas - 4  ...won SU & ATS Indianapolis - 13.5 @ St Louis ... won SU & ATS   Week 8 : ( 2-1 ATS )   Denver @ Baltimore - 3.5  Won SU & ATS St Louis @ Detroit - 4.5  Lost SU & ATS Jacksonville @ Tennessee - 3  Won SU & ATS   YTD Favored teams off a bye  : 8-3 ATS ( 72.7 % ) ( 9-2 SU )     Upcoming games :   Highlighted teams are coming off a bye >>>   Week 9 :   Miami @ New England - 10.5   ??? Pittsburgh -3  @ Denver            ???   Notes : Teams coming out of a bye ( as long as they are favored ) continue to be solid winners !  Favorites coming off a bye are 44-17 ATS ( 72.1 % ) since t... [More]

NFL selection of the week 8 2009-1010

Pick of the week : ( week 8 )

I am reaching far and low  for this one .

I decided to fly low and check under the radar this week >
It just doesn't get any lower than this :

Game : St Louis @ Detroit  " The Toilet Bowl "

Pick : the Detroit Lions - 4  ( 3 units )   

I will attempt to provide a reasonable writeup for this pick , but don't hold your breath ...
After all ,  I did pick Detroit ...

Summary of my Plays of the week : 5-1-1  Reg season

Week 1 : San Diego  - 9.5 ( vs Oak )  Lost
Week 2 : Oakland + 3 ( vs KC ) WON
Week 3 : Cincinnati + 4 ( vs Pittsburgh ) WON
Week 4 : New Orleans - 7 ( vs NYJ ) WON
Week 5 : Cincinnati + 9 ( vs Baltimore ) WON
Week 6 : New Orleans  - 3 ( vs NYG ) WON
Week 7 : Houston - 3 ( vs SF )  Pushed
Week 8 : Detroit Lions - 4 ( vs St Louis ) ...Pending

******************************************************************

... [More]

Week 7 NFL Play of the week 2009

Summary of my Plays of the week : 5-1 Reg season

Week 1 : San Diego Padres - 9.5 ( vs Oak )  Lost
Week 2 : Oakland + 3 ( vs KC ) WON
Week 3 : Cincinnati + 4 ( vs Pittsburgh ) WON
Week 4 : New Orleans - 7 ( vs NYJ ) WON
Week 5 : Cincinnati + 9 ( vs Baltimore ) WON
Week 6 : New Orleans Saints - 3 ( vs NYG ) WON

Week 7 : Houston - 3 ( vs SF 49ers ) ...pending

( 3 unit play )

This pick pains me as I am going against my team , but the only consolation to losing this pick will be the continued SF 49ers success.

That being said , despite the fact that San Francisco is coming off a bye week with ample time for Mike Singletary to fire up his troops , the return of one the best running backs in the league Frank Gore , and the highly anticipated debut of Michael Crabtree in San Francisco ......
despite all of this ......
I believe this is a bad spot and a bad matchup for the 49ers .

Noone has been more impressed with the defensive unit of SF in this early part of the year , and the relative efficiency with which Shaun Hill has run SF's offense. 
Alex Smith's name has not been mentioned once and with the defeat of Arizona  on the road , the easy victory over Seattle , and near victory of still undefeated Minnesota Vikings on the road,  the deficiencies and inadequacies of this team were temporarily supressed.

Before the bye , we saw what the 29th ranked offen... [More]