RobertoFiory's Blog

NFL selection of the week 8 2009-1010

By RobertoFiory | View all Posts
Posted Friday, October 30, 2009 08:59 PM   39 comments

Pick of the week : ( week 8 )

I am reaching far and low  for this one .

I decided to fly low and check under the radar this week >
It just doesn't get any lower than this :

Game : St Louis @ Detroit  " The Toilet Bowl "

Pick : the Detroit Lions - 4  ( 3 units )   

I will attempt to provide a reasonable writeup for this pick , but don't hold your breath ...
After all ,  I did pick Detroit ...

Summary of my Plays of the week : 5-1-1  Reg season

Week 1 : San Diego  - 9.5 ( vs Oak )  Lost
Week 2 : Oakland + 3 ( vs KC ) WON
Week 3 : Cincinnati + 4 ( vs Pittsburgh ) WON
Week 4 : New Orleans - 7 ( vs NYJ ) WON
Week 5 : Cincinnati + 9 ( vs Baltimore ) WON
Week 6 : New Orleans  - 3 ( vs NYG ) WON
Week 7 : Houston - 3 ( vs SF ) 
Pushed
Week 8 : Detroit Lions - 4 ( vs St Louis ) ...
Pending

******************************************************************

39 comments
comment Post A Comment
mobcapper says:
10/30/09 09:04PM
Wow, I can smell that one from here!!

GL
EM63 says:
10/30/09 09:37PM
wonwiththehook says:
10/30/09 09:53PM
FadeOnly says:
10/30/09 10:16PM
I'll on this as well...Lets hit it
Cyrax says:
10/30/09 10:20PM
Yeah , Detriot will win this one 
SonicBlue says:
10/31/09 04:35AM
Good track record man.  Now that it seems Stafford and Johnson are suiting up I must unbelievably recognize them as the better team. 

Everyone develops their own 'systems' and axioms when it comes to betting decisions and this game is what I categorize as a 'Tail of Two Snakes.'  When both teams are terrible, you can't count on either team to waffle or win whether it's the spread or the O/U... so I must pass by experiential default. 

Hopefully the Lions will take advantage of both bye week and HOME field. 


BOL  
softballmaniac says:
10/31/09 10:15AM
TailingExpert says:
10/31/09 10:33AM
SarasotaSlim says:
10/31/09 02:33PM
RobertoFiory says:
10/31/09 04:54PM

Sides I am considering :

Tennessee 
Baltimore
Miami
Buffalo

Minnesota
Dallas

RobertoFiory says:
10/31/09 07:22PM

Baltimore - 3 ( 2 units )

Dallas - 9.5 ( 2 units )

EM63 says:
10/31/09 07:25PM
ravens, cowboys 
Dustman1 says:
10/31/09 08:36PM

GL Roberto!

Whilz_Hea says:
11/01/09 04:23AM

Detroit

 Ravens & Boys

stussy says:
11/01/09 05:22AM
got Texans -3.5 last week .. hope will fight back this week. and disagree with Ravens and Cowboys... change to Chargers -16.5 and Saints -10.5
Gator11 says:
11/01/09 08:01AM
 On Det as well,BOL! 
Bigwhip says:
11/01/09 08:14AM
GL Roberto
ChuyenTinhDenDo says:
11/01/09 08:15AM
It looks like DOG week but all three picks are favor?

bol Robet


Area51 says:
11/01/09 08:22AM
Good Luck to you  today.  I like your Det logic.
phat03 says:
11/01/09 08:22AM
GL...
csp says:
11/01/09 09:34AM
GL Today
Sutty says:
11/01/09 10:00AM

RF-Chills...

I cap the same picks, its good to see your trend selections are congruent,(I think). I won't touch Stl/Det with a 10' pole. Your work is solid every week.

Really liking Miami & Minny.

No concerns with Denver's erie parallel with last year's Tenn? Intellectually, I have to rationalize total coincidence. But it can be a weird game.

Thanks and BOL.

 

 

andreagassi6969 says:
11/01/09 10:09AM
Newmax says:
11/01/09 10:14AM
Love the pick
WinsNow999 says:
11/01/09 10:17AM

Roberto....GL

I have a feeling that Heavy Underdogs will cash in today...Just gut feeling...

49ers + 13

Browns + 13

Seahawks + 20

On the other hands....Short Chalks will more likely cash here...

Ravens - 3.5

Jets -3.5

Packers -3

....Just my two cents....Got this feeling....

 

Orangemen44 says:
11/01/09 10:19AM
BOL
madrice1 says:
11/01/09 12:02PM
BOL RF!
ChuyenTinhDenDo says:
11/01/09 12:03PM


I like these plays
darwins44 says:
11/01/09 12:06PM
Where can I get the Seahawks plus 20?
cosmokramer says:
11/01/09 12:07PM
don't blame ya for taking the points, love "the toilet bowl" title. bol
sportsladyd says:
11/01/09 12:08PM
GL Roberto...I'm with ya on DAL
RobertoFiory says:
11/01/09 12:44PM

Calvin Johnson is not playing today .
That's unfortunate. Detroit could use him
By the way , you may want to follow this guy >>>

HERE IT IS SIMON'S 11-1 NFL AND GAME OF YEAR

One thing Detroit has done well is rebound from big losses as they are 8-2 ATS off a loss by 21 + points .
This is in contrast with ST Louis who are 5-15 ATS off a loss by 14+ points .
Getting Dwayne White and Sammie Hill is going to help this defense going against an offense that is on pace for fewest points in a 16 game season ( 8.6 PPG ) Stephen Jackson as good as he is has yet to find the endzone !
St louis is last in Td's allowed ( 27 ) PP 3rd down conv ( 51.6 % ) and tied for last in the league in rushing Td's allowed . Detroit has bounced back well after bad beats , something St Louis is not yet capable of doing . This game is the SB for the Lions and the TB for the rest of us . They have a chance to let St Louis have a taste of what they went through the entire year and with with a couple more losses the Rams will match Detroit's run of futility !
Hold your breath on this one .
St Louis seems to the logical choice , specially with C.J. out . Don't be fooled . It is not >

RobertoFiory says:
11/01/09 12:47PM

adding a few minimum amount plays ...:( 1 unit )
Bills + 3.5
Cleveland + 14
SF + 14
Miami + 3.5


RobertoFiory says:
11/02/09 03:05AM

Detroit POW >>
Baltimore WON
Dallas WON
Bills  Lost
Cleveland Lost
SF
Won
Miami 
WON 

My reputation may have taken a hit , but my pocketbook not so much at all..

I wasn't able to post afternoon picks as I was away most of the day , but with these massive line movements is paramount that you get the best line ...if you are able ...be patient ..or jump in early , line shop , don't bet if you're tied to one source and you don't  like what your local bookie is feeding you , don't bite !
..These are going to be very volatile weeks ...strap on your seat belt ...
I did take Tennessee at 3 ...was hoping for 2 1/2 ...
This was the last leg of the favorites after a bye week that included Detroit and Baltimore .
The trend holds up again .  
Truly remarkable how consistent it has been the last 4 years .
Over 70 % still  
I took Minnesota as well , though no point in going over these ....

The only I posted picks were from this morning as I have above .

Sides I am considering :

Tennessee 
Baltimore
Miami
Buffalo
Minnesota
Dallas

As for Monday  , I would normally have waited for gametime , but there will not be any need for me to do that ,  because the total has reached my desired number , and frankly 55 would have been fine as well.

I will be gone all day ...and away tomorrow .
This is my play for MNF : UNDER 55.5 ( 3 units )
Keep in mind the MNF Over trend , and the H2H trends pointing to ...naturally ...the Over are as strong as they get .
Going against them has cost me before .
But I point them out as a public service ! .

These don't have a specific number in mind ...and the movement here sets this up for an Under bet for me .
Call it opportunistic, value betting , or plain stupid .

Three games alone on Sunday ended up with a final score off 55 , one  ended up landing on 55 last week and 54 is one of the key numbers in totals.
The games New orleans has been involved in are averaging over 60 points , while the games Atlanta has been involved in are averaging 43 if my quick calculations are correct.
Prognosticating a total based on these is not the best way , but this would give a total of around 52.
I believe this may be the highest MNF total we have seen since Cincinnati and Indianapolis met in week 15 of the 2006-2007 season . That total was set at 55 , with the game ending at a heart stopping 50 ( if you recall the game )
At that point , though it was later in the season Indi's combined scores were averaging 46.5 PPG ( that's 13.5  less than NO , though again later in the season ..with colder weather games )
Cincinnati's games were averaging about 39.1 .
This is also less than Atlanta's 43 combined scores thus far this year.
Though overall the defensive talent for these 2 squads is above the ones involved then ...nonwithstanding the Falcon's recent troubles .  

But, I am going shopping here , but if you want to enjoy a good game and in particular a good fourth quarter and the continuation of an amazing trend , I suggest you don't listen to me and have some fun !
See you next week .


BigEastExpert says:
11/01/09 12:20PM
GL RF
WinsNow999 says:
11/01/09 12:19PM

Oppps...Typo

Seahawks + 10...Typed number 2 instead number one...maybe I should change to Oaklands + 17

kaponofor3 says:
11/01/09 12:24PM
I'm riding Detroit with you sir, let's hope the 70% history stays true!
MasterInSport says:
11/01/09 12:13PM
shep1981 says:
11/01/09 12:57PM

lions - 4  2 units

dolphins +3  2 units  

broncos +3 2 units

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