RobertoFiory's Blog

After Bye week trend for NFL teams ( week 8 2010-2011)

By RobertoFiory | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, October 31, 2010 03:55 AM

45 comments

Hey everyone !

Here is the update for favored teams coming off a bye :

The performance of all the teams coming off their bye week during the 2006-2007 season only

16 of the teams were set a favorites

Favorites : ( 16 total )

Favorites won 11 games SU & ATS ( 68.75 % )

Favorites won 1 game SU & lost ATS ( 6.25 % )

Favorites lost 4 games SU & ATS ( 25.00 % )

The spreads for the favs : -10, 7, 5.5, 6, 3, 4.5, 3, 8, 7.5, 5.5, 16, 1, 3, 3.5, 10, 9 ( 12 of them higher than 3 )

The favs that lost outright blew spreads of - 3, - 4.5, - 7.5, - 1

One more that won but didn't cover the spread : ?

This is the result for teams coming off their Bye weeks for the 2007-2008 NFL season :

18 Favorites

14 Underdogs

So, how did the 18 favorites perform coming off their byes :

Favorites won 13 games SU & ATS ( 72.2 % )

Favorites won 1 game SU & Lost ATS ( 5.6 % )

Favorites lost 4 games SU & ATS ( 22.2 % )

18 of the teams were favorites ( - 3.5 , 3.5 , 2.5 , 3, 3, 2. 5 , 1 , 3, 2, 2.5, 16, 4, 4.5 , 4.5 , 10, 3, 7.5, 4 )

In red are the spreads of 3 or less
How did these 5 favorites do ?

Now , a review of the performances of all teams coming off a bye week in the 2008-2009 season :

Results : 2008-2009 NFL season

Teams coming off their bye week

16 Favorites ( 14-2 SU & 12-4 ATS )

16 Underdogs ( 4-11-1 SU & 8-8 ATS )

HD : 3-3-1 SU & 4-3 ATS

HF : 8-2 SU & 6-4 ATS

RD : 1-8 SU & 4-5 ATS

RF : 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS

Favorites won 12 games SU & ATS ( 75.00 % )

Favorites won 2 games SU & lost ATS ( 12.5 % )

Favorites Lost 2 games SU & ATS ( 12.5 % )

( continued )

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RobertoFiory says:

10/31/10 03:55AM

2009-2010 NFL season >>

( Now focusing on only favorites )

week 5 : ( 2-1 ATS )

Houston @ Arizona - 5.5 ...won SU & ATS

Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia - 15.5 ... won SU & ATS

Washington @ Carolina - 5 ... won SU & lost ATS

Week 6 : ( 2-1 ATS )

Detroit @ Green Bay - 13.5 won SU/ATS

NYG @ New Orleans - 3.5 won SU/ATS

Denver @ San Diego - 3.5 ( MNF ) Lost SU/ATS

Week 7 : ( 2-0 ATS )

Atlanta @ Dallas - 4 ...won SU & ATS

Indianapolis - 13.5 @ St Louis ... won SU & ATS

Week 8 : ( 2-1 ATS )

Denver @ Baltimore - 3.5 Won SU & ATS

St Louis @ Detroit - 4.5 Lost SU & ATS

Jacksonville @ Tennessee - 3 Won SU & ATS

Week 9 : 1-1 ATS

Miami @ New England - 10.5 (Won SU & lost ATS )
Pittsburgh -3 @ Denver ( Won SU & ATS )

Week 10 : ( 0-2-1 ATS )

Jac @ NY Jets ( Lost SU & ATS )

KC @ Oakland ( Lost SU & ATS )

Detroit @ Minnesota ( Won SU & pushed ATS )

Week 11 : 0-2 ATS

Tennessee @ Houston ( Lost SU & ATS )
Atlanta @ NY Giants ( Won SU & Lost ATS )

*****************************

RobertoFiory says:

10/31/10 03:56AM

Note :

Favorites did not enjoy as much success as they finished on a weak note , but still managed to go 13-5 SU & 9-8-1 ATS

With this Favorites have gone 45-22-1 ATS since the 2006-2007 season and 57-26-1 ATS since the 2005-2006 season began
Road favorites are on a 8-0 ATS run through the end of the 2009-2010 season
Now , let's introduce the 2010-2011 season and let's see if this the poor ending for the 2009-2010 season signals a reversal or not ...

There have not been many teams coming off a bye that found themselves as favorites so far this year :

Out of the 12 teams that have already played their post-bye games, only 3 of them were favored !

The record stands at 1-1-1 ATS for the year...

Week 5 : ( 0-1-0 ATS )

Tenn @ Dallas - 6.5 ( Lost SU & ATS )

Week 6 : ( 1-0-1 ATS )

Baltimore @ NE - 3 ( Won SU & pushed ATS )

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh - 14 ( Won SU & ATS )

Week 7 : ( 0-0-0 ATS )

Week 8 : ( ??? )

Washington @ Detroit - 2.5

Green Bay @ NY Jets - 6

Houston @ Indianapolis - 5.5

For the first time we have 3 teams favored that are coming off a bye week.

This will be an important week for this trend ...

The 8-0 ATS streak for the road favorites will have to wait for another opportunity ...

The following highlighted teams will be playing off their bye week in week 9 >>>

Tampa Bay @ Atlanta

Miami @ Baltimore

Chicago @ Buffalo

New England @ Cleveland

New York Giants @ Seattle

Indianapolis @ Philadelphia

In Bold are the projected favorites and you will notice two road favorites

Let's see what happens

Fresh952 says:

10/31/10 04:00AM

Thanks for the information!

ApocalypseLater says:

10/31/10 04:02AM

good stuff!

i like the Jets and Lions quite a bit this week... hadn't looked at the Colts yet...

RobertoFiory says:

10/31/10 04:02AM

My pleasure...

Just a quick note to highlight the fact that there are 3 teams coming off a bye this week that are favored ( and happen to be
13-4-1 ATS this year )

These teams are :

Detroit Lions ( 5-1 ATS ) are coming off a bye
NY Jets ( 5-1 ATS ) are coming off a bye
Indianapolis Colts ( 3-2-1 ATS ) are coming off a bye

*********************

808-Warrior says:

10/31/10 04:08AM

Houston is also coming off a BYE and ran all over Indy in week 1.

808-Warrior says:

10/31/10 04:11AM

I love the Giants next week w/ the Seahawks on the road this week, especially if they win. The Giants would get great value if that happened.

dynamite90 says:

10/31/10 04:42AM

what does ATS & SU stand for?

kaponofor3 says:

10/31/10 04:49AM

ATS = against the spread
SU = straight up

mwhit82 says:

10/31/10 04:49AM

Nice analysis, Thanx, That's what a forum is for!!!

SiuLungBao says:

10/31/10 05:07AM

who do u like on sunday bro?

winmonies says:

10/31/10 05:12AM

pretty sure patriots will be favorites against the browns... same goes for colts against eagles

winmonies says:

10/31/10 05:13AM

sorry... only bold are favorites and the non bold in blue are teams off bye... my bad

realcapper37 says:

10/31/10 07:15AM

Always a resourceful poster! Thanks Roberto

glefkb01 says:

10/31/10 07:27AM

drhl says:

10/31/10 07:50AM

GOOD INFO...

sungod95 says:

10/31/10 09:55AM

Its great to see you back!!!! Hope everything is going well with you.I've always liked reading your trends and info for the week

HoustonSports says:

10/31/10 10:03AM

home teams off a bye with a su + ats win before the bye are 33-15-3 ats s 80

RAMs-Nation says:

10/31/10 10:10AM

i think you're miss somethings very important.

Week 5 : ( 0-1-0 ATS )

Tenn @ Dallas - 6.5 ( Lost SU & ATS ) before the bye Wk, Dal cover the Spread +3 again Houston/Under so therefore, after the bye week Dal got kill.

Week 6 : ( 1-0-1 ATS )

Baltimore @ NE - 3 ( Won SU & pushed ATS )

before the bye Wk, NE doesn't cover the spread again Buff.

that's why NE cover after the bye week.

Cleveland @ Pittsburgh - 14 ( Won SU & ATS ) before the bye week Pitt doesn't cover the spread again Balt. that why Pitt come back strong again Cleveland.

Week 7 : ( 0-0-0 ATS )

Week 8 : ( ??? )

Washington @ Detroit - 2.5 <<< before bye week did cover again NYG and manage the game to go over.

Green Bay @ NY Jets - 6 << hell mary to Holmes. and cover the spread and go over as well.

Houston @ Indianapolis - 5.5 <<< push again Wash (lucky Wash. Indy had that game all day. )game went over as well.

so, good luck guy.

i think the pick going to be Washington + 2.5/Under, GB + 6/Under, Indy -5.5/ Under.

wonwiththehook says:

10/31/10 10:21AM

softrocky says:

10/31/10 10:28AM

redskinsnut says:

10/31/10 10:35AM

Skipster says:

10/31/10 10:46AM

it's interesting that after all that information you didn't notice that the Texans are off a bye, too.

EM63 says:

10/31/10 10:51AM

great to see you around...

MJ2345 says:

10/31/10 10:56AM

Good to see you back Robertflory

MJ2345 says:

10/31/10 11:02AM

so, good luck guy.

i think the pick going to be Washington + 2.5/Under, GB + 6/Under, Indy -5.5/ Under.

Dude I have been betting this thing for 3 years its like 72% fav off a bye week Det and NYJ are the play and I wont bet Indy because Houston is off a bye also.

BTW NE IN WEEK 6 was a WINNER the line was NE -2.5 also had Pitt that week that makes it 2-1 this year

RobertoFiory says:

11/01/10 01:13PM

Skipster ...Houston is off a bye, but is the underdog in the matchup against Indianapolis .

MJ2345..I have used covers final line for tracking this trend ( to remain consistent ) and it has New England -3

Detroit wins SU & ATS
NY Jets loses SU & ATS
Indianapolis ..MNF remaining

***************************************

bubba says:

11/04/10 12:16PM

RobertoFiory says:

11/02/10 12:48AM

The trend continues this week as Indianapolis takes care of bussiness ( 30-17 )

important week gives this trend a 2-1 edge ATS in week 8
Detroit wins SU & ATS
NY Jets loses SU & ATS
Indianapolis Colts win SU & ATS

***********************************************

RobertoFiory says:

11/02/10 12:52AM

Reminder:

I'm tracking Favorites coming off a bye week since the 2005-2006 season

Road favorites do have a nice streak going into next week ...

RobertoFiory says:

11/02/10 12:59AM

Gambleholic ...thanks for the insight ....

But this thread will aways have to do with how favorites perform after a bye week , until we witness a reversal...

RobertoFiory says:

11/02/10 09:53PM

Let me ask you djchi333

Why are you bringing up a conflicting trend from last year , when the only intent of the thread I started was to highlight teams that are favored coming off a bye ...

It doesn't get much simpler than that ...

Gator11 says:

11/01/10 07:58PM

Thanks for the allways insightful info Roberto.......

gollum says:

11/01/10 01:29PM

just curious if in your research you noticed anything about favorites off their bye against another team off their bye, wonder how that would factor into who covered the last few years, thanks for the info, good stuff

Erik48 says:

11/01/10 01:30PM

First, nice to see you back RF!

Didn't you provide a lot research on 50+ over/under totals that showed they most often went UND under certain circumstances?

byharleyjames says:

11/01/10 08:15PM

Not really because Indy is the HOME team

Skipster says:

11/01/10 01:45PM

i see. thanks.

scsiegel89 says:

11/02/10 10:46PM

roberto- what do you think about this week's Colts @ eagles. Eagles are coming off bye and favored by 3. I don't think I can trust this system on this one as giving points to Peyton Manning is insane.

Gambleholic says:

11/01/10 05:09PM

Roberto, found this on your MNF week 7 thread last year. Check out the 10-2 trend, which I believe won last year

Also, my friend seems to remember a 19-0 trend that occurred recently (last year or two?) that deals with a MNF game, bye weeks, division game, and possibly a spread of 3-7 points. We're still digging through some threads but wanted to see if you recall. He remembers a Denver/SD game, which is why I was in the above thread as well.

Gambleholic says:

11/01/10 05:14PM

The updated trend is now 13-2 (Broncos cover SD, Ravens cover Browns, Titans cover Texas all from last year 3-0).

Gambleholic says:

11/01/10 05:15PM

The above is referring to this trend, which roberto posted last year.

Play Against any MNF home team off a bye vs Divisional opponent (10-2 ATS) 83.3 % (updated record is 13-2)

sailing58 says:

11/01/10 07:16PM

ROBERTO about time buddy

You making any picks later in the week?

-LB- says:

11/01/10 08:09PM

This messes your trend up because HOU and IND both come off there bye week. So what does that do to it?

Good post RobertoFiory

ICU says:

11/02/10 10:10PM

capurbund says:

11/13/10 12:11PM

quick update on Road favorites coming off a bye week:

Week 9

Chi @ Buf - (won ATS and SU)

NYG @ Sea - (won ATS and SU)

Updated record 10-0. Taking that into account, have one game this week:

Ten -1 @ Mia

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