RobertoFiory's Blog

Trends & Things week 11 MNF edition 2010-2011 + after-bye trend

By RobertoFiory | View all Posts
Posted Monday, November 22, 2010 06:48 PM   30 comments

Hey everyone,

Let's update the trend involving Favorites that are coming off a bye week >>>
San Diego
is the last team to play a game following a bye this year .
Therefore , I'll take this opportunity to update on the results for favorites coming off a bye for the 2010-2011 season

Here is the update for favored teams coming off a bye >>

( For specifics about prior years , please refer to week 8's thread on the same subject ))

There have been 15 teams that have been favored coming off a bye in the 2010-2011 season ( there will be 16 )

The record stands at 8-5-2 ATS for the year...with one game left on the schedule.
Basically, we're looking at either 9-5-2 ATS or 8-6-2 ATS, unless there is a push> Covers final scores dictates the actual line

Week 5 : ( 0-1-0 ATS )
 
Tenn @ Dallas - 6.5 ( Lost SU & ATS )
 
Week 6  : ( 1-0-1 ATS )
 
Baltimore @ NE - 3 ( Won SU & pushed ATS )
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh - 14 ( Won SU & ATS )
 
Week 7 :  ( 0-0-0 ATS  )
 
Week 8 :  ( 2-1 ATS )
 
Washington @ Detroit - 2.5 ( won SU & ATS )
Green Bay @ NY Jets - 6 ( lost SU & ATS )
Houston @ Indianapolis - 5.5 ( Won SU & ATS )
 
Week 9 : ( 2-2-1 ATS  )
 
 Tampa Bay @ Atlanta - 10 ( Atlanta won SU & Lost ATS )
Miami @ Baltimore -5 ( Baltimore won SU & won ATS )
Chicago - 3 @ Buffalo ( Chicago won SU & pushed ATS )
New York Giants - 7@ Seattle ( NY Giants won SU & ATS )
Indi @ Philadelphia -3 ( Phil - 3.5 won SU & lost  ATS )

Week 10 : ( 1-1 ATS )

Houston @ Jacksonville - 1 ( Jac won SU & ATS )
St Louis @ San Francisco - 4.5 ( SF won SU & lost ATS )
Week 11 : ( 2-0 ATS ...pending San Diego )

Green Bay - 3 @ Minnesota ( Green Bay won SU & ATS )
Seattle @ New Orleans - 11 ( New Orleans won SU & ATS )

With Green Bay's win ATS (on the road) over the Vikings ...
Road Favorites coming off a bye are now 11-0-1 ATS

A streak I was unable to highlight with my sporadic posting, but brought it up going into week 9 where it went 1-0-1

This trend ( unbeaten in last 12 ) won't be put to the test again until next year sometime .

The breakdown for favorites coming off a bye for the 2010-2011 season thus far :
Favorites won 8 games SU & ATS
Favorites won 2 games SU & pushed ATS
Favorites won 3 games SU & lost ATS
Favorites lost 2 games SU & ATS

To be updated including percentages after MNF
****************************************************

30 comments
comment Post A Comment
sungod95 says:
11/22/10 06:51PM
jabber1010 says:
11/22/10 06:51PM
GREAT INFO BRO.................THANKS AND BOL, JABBER
Cyrax says:
11/22/10 06:52PM
TomBrady12 says:
11/22/10 06:53PM
Louis_IV says:
11/22/10 06:57PM
thanks rob
Gator11 says:
11/22/10 06:58PM
Thanks for your hard work Roberto!
wil168 says:
11/22/10 07:00PM
Cooler999 says:
11/22/10 07:05PM


Well thought out dicklips......I can see all the research you have done to give that wagging fucking finger to Roberto. Keep up the intense deep homework like Roberto does. It will pay off for you. I can see a future of you being a HOT handicapper, no doubt.  Be sure and give us your posted picks, as I'm sure there's not a capper in here that wont make a move without checking with you and your finger first.baby
RobertoFiory says:
11/22/10 07:17PM
After Bye week trend for favorites :

2009-2010 NFL season
>>

 

week 5 :  ( 2-1 ATS  )

 

Houston @ Arizona - 5.5  ...won SU & ATS

Tampa Bay @ Philadelphia - 15.5  ...  won SU & ATS

Washington @ Carolina - 5  ... won SU & lost ATS

 

 

Week 6 :   ( 2-1 ATS )

 

Detroit @ Green Bay - 13.5   won SU & ATS

NYG @ New Orleans - 3.5   won SU & ATS

Denver @ San Diego - 3.5 ( MNF )   Lost SU & ATS

 

Week 7 : ( 2-0 ATS )

 

Atlanta @ Dallas - 4  ...won SU & ATS

Indianapolis - 13.5 @ St Louis ... won SU & ATS

 

Week 8 : ( 2-1 ATS )

 

Denver @ Baltimore - 3.5  Won SU & ATS

St Louis @ Detroit - 4.5  Lost SU & ATS

Jacksonville @ Tennessee - 3  Won SU & ATS

Week 9 : 1-1 ATS

 

Miami @ New England - 10.5  (Won SU & lost ATS
Pittsburgh -3  @ Denver ( Won SU & ATS )

 

Week 10 : ( 0-2-1 ATS )

 

Jac @ NY Jets - 6.5 ( Lost SU & ATS )

KC @ Oakland - 1 ( Lost SU & ATS )

Detroit @ Minnesota - 17 ( Won SU & pushed ATS )

 

Week 11 : 0-2 ATS

 

Tennessee @ Houston - 4  ( Lost SU & ATS )
Atlanta @ NY Giants - 7 ( Won SU & Lost ATS )

Favorites did not enjoy as much success in the 2009-2010 NFL regular season  as they finished on a weak note , but still managed to go 13-5 SU & 9-8-1 ATS
breakdown :
Favorites won 9 games SU & ATS
Favorites won 1 game SU & pushed ATS
Favorites won 3 games SU & lost ATS
Favorites lost 5 games SU & ATS  

Going into the 2010-2011 NFL season Favorites coming off a bye were 45-22-1 ATS since the 2006-2007 season and
57-26-1 ATS
since the 2005-2006 season began... 
This is to be updated following tonight's MNF matchup between San Diego and Denver ...
These numbers do no include the 2010-2011 season.

We can  however state , regardless of the outcome of tonight's game :
Favorites ( coming off a bye ) have covered more spreads than not in 6 consecutive seasons as I have tracked them .
Road Favorites ( coming off a bye ) go into the 2011-2012 regular season on a 11-0-1 ATS streak  

************************************

moosehunter says:
11/22/10 07:18PM
RobertoFiory says:
11/22/10 07:25PM
Now , a review of the performances of favored teams coming off a bye week in the 2008-2009 season :

 

Results : 2008-2009 NFL season

Favorites coming off their bye week

 

16 Favorites ( 14-2 SU & 12-4 ATS )

 

HF : 8-2 SU & 6-4 ATS

RF : 6-0 SU & 6-0 ATS

 

Favorites won 12 games SU & ATS75.00 %  )

Favorites won 2 games SU & lost ATS ( 12.5 % )

Favorites Lost 2 games SU & ATS ( 12.5 %  )

*********************************************

RobertoFiory says:
11/22/10 07:42PM

This is the result for Favorites coming off their Bye weeks for the 2007-2008 NFL season :

 

18 Favorites

So, how did the 18 favorites perform coming off their byes :

 

Favorites won 13 games SU & ATS  ( 72.2 % )

 

Favorites won 1 game SU  & Lost ATS  ( 5.6 % )

Favorites lost 4 games SU & ATS ( 22.2 % )

 

*********************************************

Favorites coming off their bye week during the 2006-2007 season

16 of the teams were set as favorites

Favorites : ( 16 total )

 

Favorites won 11 games SU & ATS ( 68.75 % )

Favorites won 1 game SU & lost ATS ( 6.25 % )

Favorites lost 4 games SU & ATS ( 25.00 % )


The last Road Favorite to lose ATS happened in this season on week 6  :  Seattle - 3 @ St Louis
Seattle won 30-28 missing the spread by 1 point

We can state that the last time a Road favorite coming off a bye did not cover the spread was in week 6 of the 2006-2007 NFL regular season...

**********************

 

 

Gilberto says:
11/22/10 07:45PM
great information
RobertoFiory says:
11/22/10 11:59PM

After Bye trend closes shop for the year ...
It finishes the year 9-5-2 ATS with San Diego's win on MNF

The breakdown for favorites coming off a bye for the 2010-2011 season :
Favorites won 9 games SU & ATS
Favorites won 2 games SU & pushed ATS
Favorites won 3 games SU & lost ATS
Favorites lost 2 games SU & ATS

The updated numbers read like this now :

Going into the 2011-2012 NFL season :

Favorites
coming off a bye are 
54-27-3 ATS
since the 2006-2007 season
and

66-31-3 ATS
since the
2005-2006 season began...

 Road Favorites ( coming off a bye ) go into the
2011-2012 regular season on a
11-0-1 ATS streak  

File it away !

RF

**************************************

thefever1 says:
11/23/10 01:03AM
great frickin' stuff! now that is worth a finger... the #1 finger that is!
Erik48 says:
11/23/10 09:54PM
Thanks RF. I've filed it away! Good to see you back here!
Trav2282 says:
11/23/10 10:14PM
Wizerguy says:
11/23/10 11:16PM
Thanks
icover4u says:
11/23/10 11:57PM
GL this week robert, and have a happy thanksgiving
Sareesataka says:
11/24/10 12:02AM
Outstanding post, Roberto.
mike12355 says:
11/24/10 12:05AM
Week 12 is posted? GREAT JOB!
gomer49 says:
11/24/10 02:54AM

much appreciated 

BostonStrangler says:
11/24/10 07:43AM
sweet off to work, will get a better read on this post later! thanks
DaCrusha says:
11/24/10 07:48AM
thanks great job
Gator11 says:
11/24/10 08:00AM

TA

808-Warrior says:
11/24/10 04:42PM
  Great work, thanks!
Viking17 says:
11/24/10 06:35PM

love the trends 

which site do u use for your research ?

flavavision says:
11/25/10 09:09AM
Anthing for Week 12 / Thanksgiving games Robert?
ndsent1 says:
11/25/10 10:44AM
Gator11 says:
11/25/10 11:22AM

Roberto,

Your trends and picks are much appreciated here.....Have a great THANKSGIVING!

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