Trends & Things week 7 NFL 2009

Hey everyone ...   Week 7 of the NFL is here This is what will be covered in this thread :   NFC vs AFC Favorites vs Underdogs Overs vs Unders Home Underdogs Large spreads update After bye-week trends Other trends & things  Review of last week Trend Picks update + selection(s) ********************************   NFC vs AFC   Week 1    Miami @ Atlanta - 4                    NFC wins SU & ATS Minnesota - 4 @ Cleveland      NFC wins SU & ATS   Week 2   Arizona @ Jacksonville -5        NFC wins SU & ATS Cincinnati @ Green Bay -9         AFC wins SU & ATS Tampa Bay @ Buffalo -4             AFC wins SU & ATS Pittsburgh - 3 @ Chicago           NFC wins SU & ATS   Week 3 :   Atlanta @ New England - 4                AFC wins SU/ATS Indianapolis @ Arizona -3                  AFC wins SU/ATS Kansas City @ Philadelphia - 7.5     NFC wins SU/ATS New O... [More]

Trends & Things MNF edition week 6

Hey everyone ...   We have a big MNF ahead of us as the undefeated Denver Broncos visit the rested San Diego Chargers for a key divisional matchup .   I am getting a lot of mixed emotions here because on one hand you don't want to come away having  incorrectly handicapped this game based on perception rather than reality .   For the most part , we seem to know who this San Diego Chargers team is , but realize that the team emerging from the bye-week may not be the same one that entered the bye-week. I have highlighted the stellar record of the favored teams coming off a bye-week going back 3 seasons and hitting at a 72 % clip .   Here again is the breakdown : Teams coming off their bye week last 3 seasons A total of 96 games ( 3x 32 )   Favorites : ( 50 total )   Favorites won 36 games SU & won ATS ( 72.00 % ) Favorites won 4 games SU & lost ATS   ( 8.00 % ) Favorites lost 10 games SU & ATS  ( 20.00 % )   Underdogs : ( 46 total )   Underdogs lost 24 games SU & lost ATS ( 52.17 % ) Underdogs lost 4 games SU & won ATS ( 8.70 % ) Underdogs won 17 games SU & ATS ( 36.96 % ) Underdogs tied 1 game SU & won ATS ( 2.17 % )   That's impressive !  ... [More]

Trends & Things week 6 NFL 2009

Hey everyone ...   Week 6 of the NFL is here This is what will be covered in this thread :   NFC vs AFC Favorites vs Underdogs Overs vs Unders Home Underdogs Large spreads update After bye-week trends Other trends & stuff   Review of last week Trend Picks update + selection(s)   *********************************** NFC vs AFC   Week 1    Miami @ Atlanta - 4                    NFC wins SU & ATS Minnesota - 4 @ Cleveland      NFC wins SU & ATS   Week 2   Arizona @ Jacksonville -5        NFC wins SU & ATS Cincinnati @ Green Bay -9         AFC wins SU & ATS Tampa Bay @ Buffalo -4             AFC wins SU & ATS Pittsburgh - 3 @ Chicago           NFC wins SU & ATS   Week 3 :   Atlanta @ New England - 4                AFC wins SU/ATS Indianapolis @ Arizona -3                  AFC wins SU/ATS Kansas City @ Philadelphia - 7.5     NFC wins SU/ATS New Orlea... [More]

Trends & Things week 5 NFL 2009

Green Bay @ Minnesota MNF

Probably fade material right now ...though the only bright side are  my 2 unit selections with New Orleans coming though for another POW winner . As for the rest , nothing but losers ...   Baltimore knocked on the door , in the waning seconds ,,,but denied ! Detroit made me look like a genius in the first half , and like an idiot in the second. Dallas held the lead most of the game , but could not close the deal. Kansas City flirted with the cover in the end , but made it the obvious bad choice in the end . What I called percentage plays on ST Louis and Sand Diego ...Losers.   But, my 3 main sunday selections were New Orleans as # 1 , with Baltimore and Dallas behind it ...   Was 1-2 ...Could have gone 0-3 ....might have gone 3-0 ...No reason to despair ... As good as week 3 was for me , week 4 spun the other way .   But, looking at the bright side ...I am escaping the onlaught with minimum damage . My strongest pick coming through , and my second strongest coming up give me some hope.   I make no secret to the fact a fancy the underdog ...and yet despite favorites going 11-5 in week 3 and 9-4 thus far this week ...I managed to go 8-1 ( pow hitting ) and followed that up this week by going 1-6 ( pow hitting ) with one play to go .... I'll lick my wounds ...they are not that bad !   A combination of liking this side , being the third selection in what I hope is not a perfect trifecta " percentage " play ,  ... [More]

NFL Week 4 Pick of the week +

Here we are in week 4 ..   There are teams that are who we thought they were Then , there are teams who are better than we thought, and finally there are teams that nowhere as good as we thought .   Last week , I came through with the pick of the week with the Cincinnati Bengals beating the Pittsburgh Steelers outright ,   In week 2,  I picked the Oakland Raiders over the Kansas City Chiefs ,  and finally in week 1... I picked the San Diego Chargers to beat the Oakland Raiders . That makes me 2-1 ATS in  my POW plays ....following a 1-0 POW of the month in preseason .   I had a hard time with this selection ... I tossed around Baltimore, New orleans , & Dallas   Coming off a week where Favorites covered 11-5 , I feel compelled to find an underdog worthy of consideration .  That's the contrarian in me  and I can't help myself.   Also , I want to stay away from the heavy public play this week.. and those seem to be Cincinnati at around 85 % , NY Giants at around 83 % , Tennessee at around 79 % , Indianapolis at around 78 % , San Francisco at around 75 % ....   Something tells me these 4 heavily backed teams don't go better than 50 % , and frankly 25 % is a possibility   But , the teams I like have been playing well , particularly their last game ...and they are not the primary public darlings .   I feel very good about this group going 2-1 ATS this week Again, here are t... [More]

Someone please explain this article on week 3 from the NFL

The article is titled : NFL Betting Review Week Three Posted by Cappers Mall on 09.28.2009   You can see for yourself but this is what it states :  

" Week 3 of the NFL belonged to the underdog. Not only did teams getting the points cover the spread, but there were a couple huge outright upsets during a crazy Sunday.   " ( ???)

" Perhaps the biggest shocker was the Cincinnati Bengals' 23-20 win over the defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh Steelers. The Bengals scored 14 points in the fourth quarter, including a touchdown pass to Andre Caldwell from Carson Palmer with 18 seconds remaining, to claim their second win of the year as 3.5-point underdogs. This win follows last week's upset over Green Bay in which Cincinnati was a 9-point dog. The Bengals are on the road to face the rival Browns in Week 4.

 The other head spinner on Sunday's schedule was the Detroit Lions' 19-14 win over the Washington Redskins as 6.5-point home underdogs. The Lions' victory snapped the team's 19-game losing streak and gave backers their first ATS win of the year. Rookie quarterback Matthew Stafford led the charge for Detroit, passing for 241 yards and a touchdown. The Lions defense limited Washington to just 65 rushing yards. Next week, Detroit heads to Chicago to face i... [More]

Chaos reigns supreme... in the animal kingdom of this league

It appears anarchy and chaos ...now reigns supreme in what is the animal kingdom of this  league .   Someone has opened the gates  , and wild animals are now ...running free   Meanwhile, their masters are shocked ...and in full retreat. Hunters have become the huntee , having lost a grip on their prey...  who are now roaming free.   Not long ago ...the Patriots reigned supreme.  Masters of all ...who all dared to dream.   These patriots, even... when far and away their docile prey ...could do nothing but pray.   Before that , it was the marine mammals of the East ... who had their yearly feast .   Suddenly, Giants from another East ... dared to tame the undefeated beast .   This caused chaos , not expected in the least .   The animal kingdom needed to restore order, and what better way... than through a subordinated beast .   So it was...  the tamed Lions of the north who assured the peace. All those that faced them... were masters of their own fate ... right off the gate. And for another year, once again ... order reigned supreme .   As summer began to fade on the new year , on a fateful monday and work day masters were alarmed as the prey ...almost got away .   Neither the Bills nor the Lions could change the way ... but rest assured ...that the prey stirred fear ...across the way . It seemed as if the safety net ...had began to fr... [More]

Trends & Things week 4 NFL + MNF week 3

Hey everyone ...   I am going to start this thread pretty much the same way I began last week's thread , and that is with the Monday nighter featuring the Over/Under trend on MNF   One of the most remarkable trends throughtout the 2008-2009 regular season appeared on Monday night games ...   Overs began the year on an 8-0-1 tear and finished strong going 11-3-2 for the year on the high side .   In week 1 last year , Minnesota visited Green Bay , while Denver visited Oakland .   With 20 points scored in the fourth quarter in the first game , and 28 points scored in the fourth quarter of the second game , the year began with the overs going 2-0 . This barrage of 4th Qtr points was the catalyst and it set the stage for the remainder of the year as the trend only picked up ore steam .   Fast forward to this year ...   In week 1 , two games were played on monday night , both of which sailed over the total with 49 combined points between Buffalo & New England . Meanwhile , San Diego & Oakland combined for 44 of their own . What got them there was the 4th quarter activity .   22 points & 24 points were scored in the fourth quarter alone on those games . Last week ( week 2 )  , Indianapolis & Miami squared off with the total set at 41 . They combined for 50 points  . What got them there ? You guessed it . The fourth quarter provided most of the firepower .  ... [More]

Week 3 NFL Pick of the week 2009-2010

Hey everyone ,   I ended week 2 with a win on MNF with Indianapolis   My week 2 picks were a rock solid  8-1 ATS , so perhaps I am on the right track ... Pick of the week on Oakland Raiders came through to compensate for week's 1 loss .   Summary of picks : Overall >>> 10-4 2-1 ( 2 unit plays ) 8-3 ( 1 unit plays )   Preseason 1-1 ( 1-0 on 2 unit plays  ) ( 0-1 on 1 unit plays  ) Week 1 : 1-2 ( 0-1 on 2 unit plays ) ( 1-1 on o1unit plays  ) Week 2 : 8-1 ( 1-0 on 2 unit plays ) ( 7-1 on 1 unit plays )     Week 3 Pick of the Week :   Game : Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati current line : Pittsburgh - 4/3.5   This matchup involves 2 familiar foes as these two divisional rivals renew their yearly contest this Sunday in Cincinnati . The Super Bowl champs should have no fear going on the road as history is clearly on their side .   Pittsburgh is 7-0-1 ATS last 8 meetings in Cincinnati . The Road team is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings Pittsburgh is 5-0 ATS last 5 meetings Bengals are 3-10 ATS last 13 games vs the AFC Bengals are 4-10 ATS last 14 following an ATS win   Recent games between these teams :   PIT 38 - CIN 10 PIT 24 - CIN 13 PIT 23 - CIN 17 PIT 31 - CIN 17 PIT 27 - CIN 13 PIT 19 - CIN 14   This shows total dominance by Pittsburgh while playing on their rival's own turf ! Pittsburgh may have lost a close one @ Chicago last week , but... [More]

SF 49ers under Mike Singletary

I offcially recognize the debut of Mike Singletary as head coach of the SF 49ers after the team's bye in the 2008-2009 season .   This is when with proper time to prepare the 49ers became his team .   Prior to that bye, the now famous game against Seattle took place and it served as a statement of what the coach would expect from this team . The statement was made at halftime when the players got to see where the sun never shines , during the game when Vernon Davis was sent to the showers following a stupid 15 yard penalty , and after the game with an emphatic post-game conference detailing his philosophy as a coach which mirrors his legendary playing style .   That game where both J.T. O'Sullivan and Shaun Hill shared duties established the 49ers QB of the future , and the end of both J.T.O'Sullivan and eventually Mike Matrz .   After the bye , his message clearly entrenched in the psyche of his players and with adequate preparation his record follows :   A 5 point loss @ Arizona ...( L 24-29 ) nearly winning the game in the end .   A 19 point win vs St Louis  ( W 35-16 ) an expected win @ home vs a weaker opponent , but still impressive in the 49ers total dominance over their division rivals .   A 13 point loss @ Dallas  ( L 22-35 ) a tough road game against a superior team with much more firepower .  Importantly , SF stayed in the game outplaying and outscoring Dallas in the second half . ... [More]

Trends & Things week 3 NFL + MNF week 2

Hey everyone ...   I thought I would get a jump on week 3   While week 2 won't  officially end until the conclusion of tonight's game between Indianapolis@ miami some updates and observations can be made . I will also update week 1& 2   Since it's Monday , let's start with MNF    One of the most remarkable trends throughtout the 2008-2009 regular season appeared on Monday night games ... Overs began the year on an 8-0-1 tear and finished strong going 12-3-2 for the year on the high side .   In week 1 last year , Minnesota visited Green Bay while Denver visited Oakland . With 20 points scored in the fourth quarter in the first game , and 28 points scored in the fourth quarter of the second game , the year began with overs going 2-0 .    Interestingly , both of these games began as low scoring affairs with Green bay and Denver combining for only 13 points in the first half and only 17 points were scored by halftime in the Denver-Oakland game .   Last Monday 22 points & 24 points were scored in the fourth quarter alone in the Buffalo-NE & SD-Oak games respectively .   A scoring frenzy took place during 4th quarters on MNF games last year driving the vast mayority of the games easily over the set total.   By the numbers : 312 points combined were scored in the fourth quarter of all MNF games last year .   This amounts to an average of 18.3 PPG ( Durin... [More]

Trends & stats; Things week1 2009-2010 NFL

Hey eveyone ...   Tomorrow , Thursday September 10 2009 is the first game of the 2009-2010 NFL regular season   I wish you all  the very best of luck throughout the season ...   During this preseason there were 6 teams that had a perfect record ( A high number ) 3 of these teams went a perfect 4-0 , while 3 others went a perfect 0-4   4-0 teams : Miami , Baltimore , Seattle 0-4 teams : Kansas City, Arizona , Carolina   Detroit had the distinction of following up a perfect preseason record during 2008 with a perfect record of futility going 0-16 during the regular season . Detroit started the regular season by losing @ Atlanta 21-34 . Somehow, the oddsmakers made Detroit a 3.5 favorite on the road that day .  Detroit would never again find themselves as favorites in any contest for the remainder of the year.   On the other hand , New England and Cleveland ( 0-4 teams ) both failed to cover the spread in week 1   Clearly , preseason records do not indictate much in terms of success or failure for the regular season .   But, does preseason record present the savvy bettor with an opportunity to find a soft line ?   Perhaps , an overrated or an underrated team lies in the mix .   After all , Detroit had finished the 2007-2008 regular season campaign floundering by losing 7 of their last 8 games and failing to cover the spread in any of their losses . Naturally, there are plenty of... [More]

Trends & Things 2008-2009 NFL review

Hey everyone ...   I will be reviewing and updating the Trends & Things thread for the 2008-2009 NFL season .   Favorites vs Underdogs >>>   Week 1 : Favs 10 - 6  ATS Week 2 : Favs  8 - 5- 2  ATS ( one game postponed ) Week 3 : Favs  10 - 6 ATS Week 4 : Favs  7 - 6 ATS Week 5 : Favs  7 - 7 ATS    Week 6 :  Favs  6 - 8 ATS Week 7  : Favs  6 - 8 ATS Week 8 :  Favs  7 - 7 ATS Week 9 :  Favs : 5 - 9 ATS Week 10 : Favs  6 - 8 ATS Week 11 : Favs : 8 - 8 ATS Week 12 : Favs : 10 - 5 - 1 ATS Week 13 : Favs : 7 - 8 - 1 ATS Week 14 : Favs : 9 - 7 ATS Week 15 : Favs : 5 - 10 - 1 ATS Week 16 : Favs : 5 - 11 ATS Week 17 : Favs : 10 - 6 ATS     2008-2009 season >>>  Favs finish 126 - 125 - 5 ( 50.2 % )  ATS   We see that despite a torrid 35 - 23 - 2 ATS start by the favorites to commence the year , it all evened out in the end.

These results are based on covers scoreboard final listed odds for each particular game throughtout the 2008-2009 regular season.  

Please mention any errors so they can be corrected .       

 

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