Smart Bet Friday April 10th

Overall Record 4-5 Total Profit/Loss $-1   Took a day off yesterday after losing both my picks on Wednesday. You can see the benefit of playing mainly underdogs in that we have a losing record and yet are only down $1, you simply can't say that in most other sports.   1. Rangers (+125) vs Tigers: Benson vs. Galarraga. The Rangers offense continues to hit really well putting up just under 10 runs in their first three contests. I think that can continue today vs Galarraga. I am only aware of one pitcher who pitched in the WBC who was able to get a win in his first start, Lilly. Lilly got huge run support in his start, but he still struggled giving up 4 runs in the first 4 innings. Remember, Oswalt, Peavy, and Dice-K all lost their first starts. Therefore, look for the Rangers to continue to roll.   2. Rangers/Tigers OVER 10 (-115): As stated above, the Rangers are producing almost double digit runs and could continue that today against Galarraga. Secondly, we also know that Rangers pitching staff is going to struggle for most of the year. Benson wasn't even on the initial 40-man roster and only signed a contract just the other day. He was decent in Spring Training, but I do look for the Tigers to manage a few runs against him today. I see this being an 8-5 score, so I will roll with the over.   3. Phillies -1.5 (+120) vs Rockies: Hamels vs. Marquis. It is always difficult for the defending champs to come out strong in their firs... [More]

Smart Bet Baseball April 8th

Record 4-3 Profit: $199   1. Cleveland (+100) vs Texas: Carmona vs Padilla. In my opinion Carmona will be the key to the Indians pitching staff this year. As I stated earlier, I think it will be difficult for C. Lee to have the type of year he had last year, so Carmona will have to fill that void. Carmona struggled with his control last year walking 70 while striking out only 58. However, he looked very sharp in spring training going 4-1 with a 2.67 ERA, in 27 innings he allowed 24 hits, 8 ERs, 2 HRs, SO 13, and walking 8. If he can carry that ST stuff into Texas today, he should take advantage a free swinging Ranger's offense. Padilla was average at best in Spring Training, which should allow the Indians to get some good looks and better at bats than they were able to muster against Millwood.   2. Cubs vs. Astros (+120): Lilly vs Moehler. In Baseball, more than any other sport, trends are a vital element in handicapping baseball. As evident by many of the starters who have already thrown in games this year and also played in the WBC, they have struggled in their opening regular season starts. Oswalt was not his best in his first outting losing to the Cubs 4-2, giving up 2 HRs in the game. Peavy also struggled losing to the Dodgers in his home opener. Therefore, I have to go against Lilly in this match-up. Lilly isn't going to surprise anyone with his stuff and he definetly isn't going to dominate any lineup. So Lilly is... [More]