When comparing these two teams stats are completely meaningless becasue of the huge disparity in competition.  All of Boise's stats are grossly over-inflated to the point of being completely meaningless for any type of comparison purposes.

Without completely beating a dead horse to death, I would be curious as to what your projected final score for this game is.

And your point on Aaron Murray is well taken.  Without even looking at the stats, however, it would stand to reason that a freshman QB will struggle a bit against tougher competition.  Most QBs do.

I disagree with your premise that Boise has a great defense.  They played two tough teams (even though I really don't consider Nevada all that tough) last season.  They went 1 & 1 in those games and gave up 30 and 34 points respectively.  Nothing about that even remotely suggests to me that Boise has a "great" defense.  Sure they have a great defense when they play New Mexico State, but so does every other team in the nation.

Lastly, do you consider a team that is having to travel 2500 miles to play in a hostile environment who you think will cover the spread by 1 point is a sound bet?

But even the numbers in the VT game are skewed a bit.

VT only had 7 offensive plays in the first quarter (6 runs and a fumbled QB/center exchange).  They didn't attempt a single pass until the 2nd quarter.  That's why TT only had 22 pass attempts despite being behind by 17 points when he attemped his first pass.

Boise's rushing numbers were also skewed a bit by a 71-yard run on a dive play that was designed to pick up a 1st down on 3rd and incles.  A broken defensive assignment allowed Harper to run untouched for a 71-yard TD.

As I have said several times, there is no value in betting Boise in this spot.  Either bet the Dawgs, or, do like you are doing, stay away.

As far as 1, 2 & 3 are concerned, all are pretty much tied together.  If Boise gets into the 20s, Georgia won't win by DD.  I think the only way they do that is by holding Bosie around that 14-point mark or under.  If they do that, then a score like 27-13 would certainly be within the realm of possibility.

We are comingling many issues that have no bearing on the Boise/Georgia game, but here goes.

I don't think the NFL comparison is relevant because there is not much seperation between the top NFL teams and the bottom NFL teams.  You almost never see a team go undefeated, and  you almost never see a team go winless.  And even in the most extreme cases a 20-point spread is about the highest line you'll ever see in the NFL, where in college 30-40 point spreads are routine.  In short, there is a much bigger seperation between the haves and the have nots in college football.

Secondly there is a playoff system in the NFL so that pretty much weeds out the pretenders.

As to your second point, no Bama should not have played for a national championship if they had played Boise's schedule.

Playing for a national championship, a BCS bowl or even a top 10 ranking is something that needs to be earned, and it is not earned by playing a 1 or 2 game season.  In my opinion if Bosie wants top 10 consideration, they would need to play and win 3-4 non-conference road games against legitimate BCS conference teams like the teams from BSC conferences have to do.  Then they would have a legitimate resume to be considered for a top 10 ranking and a national championship.

During the same period of time that Boise beat the Oregon schools twice, Oklahoma, and VT, Georgia beat the following teams:

Georgia Tech (4 times)

Auburn (3 times)

South Carolina (2 times)

Mississippi (2 times)

Colorado

Virginia Tech

Oklahoma State

Alabama

Florida

Arkansas

Arizona State

Texas A&M

Tennessee

but yet Boise is great, and Georgia is mediocre?   

Nobody said Georgia or Alabama were worthy of playing for a national championship after they beat Virginia Tech.  But after Boise got a lucky win against a VT team that was clearly better than them, Boise is worthy of playing for a national championship?  That is beyond absurd.

Moreover, rewarding teams for playing nobody just encourages all teams in the country to schedule as many weaklings as they can cram on their schedule.  After all, what incentive would anyone have to play a good team.  They can just pull a "Boise," and have smooth sailing right into the national championship game.

Rewarding teams who take the easiest possible path with a shot at the national championship would make a complete mockery of college football.  Teams that play for national championships should have national championship worthy resumes, not a resume of beating the most pathetic teams in the country.  Yes, I can see the day when Troy is playing Ball State for a national championship.

Morevover, just because I think Boise has virtually no shot of of covering the spread against the Dawgs in the Georgia Dome doesn't mean I'm "disrespecting" them in any way.

On Covers you can bet against any team in the country without repercussions, but the minute someone fades Boise, whoa, they are disrespecting them.  That's utter nonsense!!!  That is particularly so with me, because I have mad respect for Boise.  I touted them heavily on Covers for years, and have made a ton of money betting on them.  Why would I disrespect a covering machine like Boise?  That makes no sense.

Just because I don't think Boise is, or ever has been a top 10 team (except maybe the 2007 season when they beat Oklahoma), or that I think Boise will lose to a team with superior talent doesn't make me a hater.  It makes me a realist, and a gambler on the right side of a wager.

I heart Boise, but I'm betting against them in this game because they are not going to win.

• 3-9 ULL
• 6-7 Tennessee
• 2-10 Vandy
• 6-7 Kentucky
• 1-10 Idaho State
• 6-7 Georgia Tech
• 7-6 South Carolina
• 8-5 Arkansas
• 4-8 Arizona State
• 6-5 Tennessee Tech
• 2-10 Vandy
• 8-5 Auburn
• 11-3 Georgia Tech
• 6-7 Texas A&M

I just updated your list for you.

Three rolly heads for a Bosie fan critiqing the quality of a SEC teams wins.  How bout you actually play a competitive game against a SEC team before you mock one.

Comparing Tyrod to Murray 

I can't wait for this beatdown UGA is going to administer.  Last year was a fluke for UGA.  Year before, injuries killed us.  We really only have 2 huge questions for this season, and that is depth at OL and who will step up at WR.  The starting 5 on OL and first reserve are very very good.  At WR TKing will step up as well as soph MBrown.  Another year under Granthams scheme on D and I believe UGA wins the East. 

Can't wait for this game.

A good article that pretty much says exactly what I've been saying on Covers the last coulpe of weeks.  But saying Kellen Moore's game "disappears" when he plays against top defenses is a pretty ridiculous statement. 3 TDs against 0 picks, and a passer rating of 134.1 is not exactly disappearing. I have to admit I LOLed when I read that.

I agree with the article about Georgia's defense.  Georgia will be the biggest, fastest most athletic defense Moore has ever faced. He'll be throwing to two new WRs who will be facing a SEC defense that returns their entire secondary - a secondary that ranked 17th best in the nation playing against real football teams. That's why I have predicted Boise won't score more than 14 points in this game.

@ugadog - people will know who Marlon Brown is after the Boise game. He's not AJ Green, but he's going to be very good.

I've said the exact same thing about UGA's o-line. Their starters are huge and nasty, they just don't have much behind them. Their lack of depth along the o-line will be no factor in this game however.

Good discussion with some good and bad points here.  Will pass on this game as I have been burned to many times by going agianst Boise in this situation.  However, can't help myself to gas up the fire.

1. New WR @ Boise???  Shoemaker is a SR and started 9 games in 08-09, had 5 TD's LY.  The others don't compare to the 2 NFL players they lost, they will be down.  Sr-TE Efaw will line up in the slot as well

2.  Pass Defense...LY the lost Kyle Wilson #1 draft to the Jets and still produced.  I think there D line doesn't get enough credit.  I love Billy Winn and was surprised he only had 4 sacks, but from a DT thats OK.  DE McClellin was also putting the pressure on (9.5 sacks)  As a team they had 49 sacks LY to help the DBs

3. Coaching, I do like Richt but I will take Petersen over him anyday.  I don't like the weak ass schedule either, but Chris Petersen has proved time after time, give him 5 weeks to prepare for a bowl, or an entire offseason to prepare for an opener and he will have a game plan and team prepared.  I want to see Boise play a ranked team in the middle of a season, let alone more than 2 a season.

I'm very familiar with Malcolm Mitchell.  Saban wanted him bad.  Richt did a great job of hanging on to the Valdosta boy.

As I wrote in a post I started, Georgia is one of the most talented teams in the country.  Talent is not their issue.  Experience at some spots (like o-line) and coaching up that talent are the bigger issues.

Speaking of o-line recruits, I'm sure you know Georgia picked up the top lineman in the country (John Theus) as part of their 2012 class.  Another nice catch for Richt.

I agree that Georgia will win this game convincingly, but it won't put an end to the hype forever.  People have very short memories.  In 3 or 4 years we'll have people on here telling us how the 2011 Boise team was one of the worst Boise teams ever, and how the new version Boise team could beat the '85 Bears.  It's a cycle.  Don't fight it, profit from it.

Yeah, UGA has finally put recruiting back as a priority since last year.  Our recruiting classes in 08 and 09 were not up to what UGA is used to and it caught up to us in a hurry last year.  Of course our S&C dept was as bad as my jr high team.  That has been taken care of as well.  I went to UGA, have friends still there and know the ins and outs.  That is all I will divulge.  But hear this.....and I have said it on here before......there is a reason Richt took this game.  Last year was a fluke.  UGA and Richt have been hammered on......rightfully so.  But again, UGA took this game for a reason.  If you look at the starters vs starters in this game, UGA has every edge.

I remember the sugar bowl vs Hawaii.  On the field, and UGA was just bigger, faster and stronger.  I made the largest wager I've ever made on UGA after watching Colt not even come close to completing a pass in warmups.  Funny!  Even Jimmy Johnson said UGA could score 75 if they wanted.  LOL!!!!!

This Boise squad is better than the 05 team.  But I would put them equal to the Hawaii squad of 07.  UGA showed up to pummel Hawaii b/c all of the pundits said Hawaii was going to pull the upset.  Much like this game, you r hearing the same.  Boise this, Boise that.  Our kids know this......and UGA will again be ready.

UGAdog I think you would be interested in my ealier post on this game.  Read all my posts on the first page.

http://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101099662

Tideman-

I couldn't have said it better myself- Boist St. is NOT an elite team till they can prove that they can win consistanly playing a better schedule- They have proved they are good and they are well coached. I think one way to prove this is to start scheduling them against SEC or Big Ten/Big 12 teams in a bowl game. I mean matching them up with the Utah proves nothing. Until they either change the way they provide matchups in bowl games or Boise changes conferences, then this type of discussion will always take place. I respect what Boise has done and think they are a good program, however they would not be 11-1 every year if they played in a big BCS conference. And no one has pointed out how Virg. Tech lost to James Madison last year. Virginia Tech was nothing special last year. Hence the bashing they took at the hands of Stanford(another very well coached team). Talk is cheap, so i guess everyone will see how they do against this Georgia team.

I disagree with your basic premisis that Georgia is "on a major down trend."  To the contrary, I believe they are on a major upswing.  Richt has finally restored some discipline to the team, he's taken out the trash, recruited big time blue-chip talent, instituted an effective stength and conditioning program (finally), and has an outstanding defensive coordinator in Todd Grantham.

As I have said before, this game has the exact same feel of the 2008 opening day game between Bama/Clemson which was also played in the Georgia Dome.  Before that game I also posted heavily on Covers that not only would unranked Bama beat 6th ranked Clemson, they would do so in convincing fashion.  I expect a similar result in this game.

As I have also said before, thre is absolutely zero value in betting Bi]oise here, because even if Boise does manage to win this game somehow, it'll likely be similar to the VT game where they only won by 3 (and were extremely lucky to have done that).  The plays here are Georgia, the under, or under Boise team total.

For all these reasons (and others), I think Georgia beats Boise convincingly, and plays Bama in the SEC Championship Game in December.

We are NOT talking about '08, '09 & '10.  We are talking about '11.  To be a successful in this line of work you have to be ahead of the curve, not behind it, and if you think Georgia is "on a major down trend," I can promise you you are behind it.

Boise enters this game 0-fer against SEC competiton, and they'll leave 0-fer against SEC competition.

Betting on Boise when facing the SEC is

Neither team is overrated.  In fact Georgia is vastly underrated.  Look no further than the Boise line.  That's a game where they should be -6.5.

Even with suspensions I have very little faith Oregon can beat LSU.  LSU is one of the top 3 or 4 most talented teams in the country.  The thing that will sink Oregon and Boise are the same thing that sinks other conferences in national championship games . . . DEFENSE.

Wagering IS conjecture.

Talent is one factor of many, albeit a big one.

Right. The only place they can go from here is up.

If it were me, I would've fired the entire staff after the bowl game with UCF.  But, the team just wanted to get the season over with. 

With the recruiting haul, there has been a long awaited attitude adjustment......and it started right after the bowl game with Strengh and Conditioning.  I can't stress enough how AWFUL UGAs S&C has been the past two seasons.  Add to it the pitiful recruiting efforts and busts in the 08 and 09 classes, and you get what UGA produced last year.......crap. 

But, when you look at the canvas, there is a reason why UGA took this game.....period.  RB....don't worry.....Crowell would've been starter last year if he would have been on campus.  OL, starting 5 is super, depth is an issue as we are young....but talented.  Nearly all of the past year recruits will get playing time. 

Boise will bear the red and black and get knocked back to reality being a mid major thankfully.  Cant wait.

• Samuels is now BACK at RB
• UGA dismissed its only 2 RBs that had over 300 yards LY
• Aaron Murray has the most returning rush attempts
  

18-22 Year Old Talent requires GREAT Coaching

If anything I would give The Broncos at least 4+ points for Coaching

I addressed all of these issues and queestions in the thread I linked above.  Did you read all of page 1?

I don't think there is any question that Peterson has gotten more out of his players than Richt has in the past, but then again he has to.  He has less to work with.

Moreover, coaching is a legitimate betting angle IMO.  I just don't think it'll be much of a factor in this game.  As I have said before, I think talent will be the most salient factor.

Echoing everything I've been saying fts.

There is zero value in playing Boise here.

As I have said, the internal strife that has held Georgia from reaching their potential the last couple of years is very similar to what Bama went through in 2007 ( 7 & 6 season).  Saban took out the trash after the '07 season, and people laughed when I said unranked Bama would not only beat Clemson to open the 2008 season, but they would do so in convincing fashion.

This season we are seeing a similar revival within the Georgia program.  Richt has taken out the trash, and team confidence and team unity are at an all time high.  These are the intangibles you will not see in the stats.

Of all the week 1 games, the one I'm most sure about is that Georgia will win this game, and like the Bama/Clemson game, I really don't think it'll be very close.

• 2008- 3-3
• 2009- 1-3
• 2010- 0-4

good stuff, SNF... not gonna get into a bickering match about this game, because it's just a broken record...

on another note:  Hawk, you can't be serious trying to compare this game to the last matchup between these two teams!

SNF, i'll be with you on this one... betting on UGA to beat Boise is just being stubborn, if you ask me... two different calibers of football being played at these schools nowadays... would have to see clear evidence of a reversal in that trend before i would consider going against it...