Locks for NFL Week 4

There’s only one play that I really like this weekend. Everything else falls into the lukewarm category.

But after a 4-0 jaunt in Week 3, I’ve built a tiny bankroll and it’s burning a hole in my pocket.

But as we all know, this game is a marathon, not a sprint. We have to stay disciplined with our approach.

I’m leaning toward all of the NFC East teams this weekend, except for Philly. But I can’t get behind Washington. I like what the defense is doing but I just don’t trust Rextasy, especially on the road.

The first bet I made was Giants ML (-115). I am concerned about it being their third roadie in four weeks, and coming off a divisional win, but would be more concerned if they were laying points. To me, this spread should be at least a field goal because on a neutral field the G-Men would be 6-point chalk.

The young corners in the Desert are very beatable. And the O-line doesn’t have a prayer against the Giants’ pressure up front (good chance Osi returns). Corn on the Kolb looked awful against a mediocre Seattle defense, New York is much better. 

If Justin “Tuck your panties in” doesn’t play I’m going to puke. He said if he could board the plane then he was going to play. Please don’t puss out on me like you did in Week 1.

I waited all week for the juice to drop on the Jets-Baltimore line but I think it’s bottomed-out. Fearing the hook, I went ahead and grabbed Ravens -3 (-125). I’m not risking any more on it than the f... [More]

Locks for NFL Week 3

My dad always said he’d rather be lucky than good.

When you’re lucky, success simply falls into your lap. When you’re good, you have to work to succeed.

I’m lazier than a lapdog so I’d rather be lucky than good. I’ve been lucky in life -- have a good job, an amazing wife and a loving family.

But I haven’t been lucky as a gambler. Every so often I’ll be on the right side of a bad beat but more often than not, they bend me over.

There are more than a few athletes and coaches I would like to collect money from. Jesse Holley made the list last weekend. Shame on you Mr. Holley; run down like a hare. He was the hero, I got proper f@cked.




Other than the Ravens, I really felt like I made the right bets in Week 2. The Bills and Cowboys were the better teams. But slow starts by both resulted in two pushes.

But a push is better than a loss any day. And we live to fight another week.

I’m going back to the well with Baltimore. They can’t play poorly against inferior competition two weeks in a row. The loss at Tennessee was a wakeup call. It doesn’t look like S-Jax is going to play and now the Cadillac is in the shop. First bet, Ravens -4.

The opening spread for the Texans-Saints matchup was -5.5. Within a half hour after surfacing Sunday night the number had dropped two points. Some wiseguy has a Houst... [More]

Locks for NFL Week 2

If you’re new to the blog I know what you’re thinking…“Who is this pompous prick that thinks he can throw around the word lock.”

I promise you, I’m not that naïve, nor do I have any locks. Check out my Week 1 blog or column below and you’ll discover I’m the most humble handicapper on the planet.

I did stand a little taller last week after going 3-1. But to borrow a proverb from the infinite wisdom of The Wolf…“Let’s not start sucking each other’s [expletive] quite yet.”

I made my first bet Monday -- a 6-point teaser (-110) with the Lions -2, Ravens PK.

I’m the conductor on the Matt Stafford love train. As long as he, Jahvid and Megatron         stay healthy, the Lions won’t have any trouble scoring. And I love how Ndamukong Suh     said they aren’t a team that’s in a position to overlook any opponent.

Baltimore is a team I’m really high on. I just don’t see how the Titans are going to             contain Ray “Ruh-Roh” Rice this weekend. The vulnerability for the Ravens is the             secondary and Kenny Britt can’t beat them by himself.

I monitored the Dallas spread Wednesday and it looked like it was heading upward. Fearing the hook, I went ahead and grabbed Cowboys -3 (-120). Lines always move against me so I wasn’t surprised when I saw it as low as +105 at BookMaker on Thursday.

The ea... [More]

Locks for NFL Week 1

It’s impossible not to click on a thread or blog link with the word lock. We want to see the plays and then hope they lose because using the “L” word in sports betting is like saying Voldemort in Harry Potter land.

I know there's no such thing as a lock. And by no means do I have any below. In fact, I’m already second guessing a couple of the early bets. And to be completely honest, I’m a little nervous about having my record on public display all season.

But enough with the excuses and hesitancies, there will be plenty of that as the year unfolds, I promise. On to the picks, which by no means am I endorsing as locks, or even sharp plays.

I have to start out by patting myself on the back (which doesn’t happen often) because I took a position with the Texans -3 on August 20. I happened to be scouring my favorite NFL blog and the Jim Irsay tweet popped up. I went to BookMaker and the line was already off the board. I logged into my local’s website and lo and behold, it was still up, with a generous -105 juice.

This play will not count toward my record because it is not available. It would be smart of me to play the Colts +9 to possibly catch a middle, but where’s the fun in that. It’s like pulling an iron out of my bag for the safe tee shot. I paid my money to play; I’m going to use my damn driver.

My first official bet of the season was Giants -3. The pros always talk about shopping for the best line and I was thrilled when I snagged this o... [More]