My crystal ball is as cloudy as the basement in
That ‘70s Show. I can’t predict line movement. And I’m not paying 300 bucks for an odds-tracking service so I can stare at a flashing screen all day.
So how does an ordinary bettor like me know when to pull the trigger?
Movement bit me in the ass again this week. I was already leaning Steelers when they opened at -4.5. I liked ‘em even more when early action dropped it to -3.5.
But I’m as greedy as the Grinch and wanted the field goal. Don’t we all? It would’ve cost me -130 to buy the hook so I waited on the off-chance that one more bet would tip the number.
It never came and the spread moved to -4 Thursday afternoon. I return to my quandary. Anybody got an opinion on this game?
The first bet I made this week was
Packers -1.5, Ravens -1 (7-point teaser, -130).
I know this is Green Bay’s fourth roadie in six weeks and the bye is looming but there is no way a rookie quarterback is going to beat them. We know how fast this team plays and its speed is multiplied in a dome.
The Jags will be lucky to score 14 points on Baltimore. And Jack Del Rio will be lucky to have a job end of business Tuesday. Find my Week 7 betting mismatches on the front page Sunday for more on this game.

The second bet I made was
Chargers ML (-130).
I like that San Diego is coming out of the bye but this is more a play against the Jets than anything. They did absolutely nothing to impress me Monday night. Their performance just further drove home my three-year-long conviction that Dirty Sanchez is not a serviceable NFL quarterback. He'd be a better GQ model.
After Monday’s win, Sanchez said they were “back on track.” I don’t think punting eight times and being outgained in yardage by a pathetic offense qualifies as back on track, especially since they were never on track to begin with.
And now you’ve got Rex opening his big mouth again.
His comments about Norv (who I don’t think is a great head coach) will only fuel the Chargers’ motivation.
I’ve got a few other leans so check back with the blog because added plays will be made in the comment section below. Follow at your own risk.
You can follow my musings and mayhem on
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