ScottCooley's Blog

Locks for NFL Week 7

By ScottCooley | View all Posts
Posted Friday, October 21, 2011 12:23 PM   17 comments
My crystal ball is as cloudy as the basement in That ‘70s Show. I can’t predict line movement. And I’m not paying 300 bucks for an odds-tracking service so I can stare at a flashing screen all day.

So how does an ordinary bettor like me know when to pull the trigger?

Movement bit me in the ass again this week. I was already leaning Steelers when they opened at -4.5. I liked ‘em even more when early action dropped it to -3.5.

But I’m as greedy as the Grinch and wanted the field goal. Don’t we all? It would’ve cost me -130 to buy the hook so I waited on the off-chance that one more bet would tip the number.

It never came and the spread moved to -4 Thursday afternoon. I return to my quandary. Anybody got an opinion on this game?

The first bet I made this week was Packers -1.5, Ravens -1 (7-point teaser, -130).

I know this is Green Bay’s fourth roadie in six weeks and the bye is looming but there is no way a rookie quarterback is going to beat them. We know how fast this team plays and its speed is multiplied in a dome.

The Jags will be lucky to score 14 points on Baltimore. And Jack Del Rio will be lucky to have a job end of business Tuesday. Find my Week 7 betting mismatches on the front page Sunday for more on this game.

The second bet I made was Chargers ML (-130).

I like that San Diego is coming out of the bye but this is more a play against the Jets than anything. They did absolutely nothing to impress me Monday night. Their performance just further drove home my three-year-long conviction that Dirty Sanchez is not a serviceable NFL quarterback. He'd be a better GQ model.

After Monday’s win, Sanchez said they were “back on track.” I don’t think punting eight times and being outgained in yardage by a pathetic offense qualifies as back on track, especially since they were never on track to begin with.

And now you’ve got Rex opening his big mouth again. His comments about Norv (who I don’t think is a great head coach) will only fuel the Chargers’ motivation.

I’ve got a few other leans so check back with the blog because added plays will be made in the comment section below. Follow at your own risk.

You can follow my musings and mayhem on Twitter.

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17 comments
comment Post A Comment
garretdoherty says:
10/21/11 07:34PM
packers will be beat!
wde says:
10/21/11 10:33PM
I SAY PACKERS WILL GO UNDEFEATED TIL SB, LIKE YOUR OTHER PICKS TO.
ScottCooley says:
10/21/11 10:40PM
Not this week garret.
ScottCooley says:
10/21/11 10:40PM
Thanks wde, I think they have a chance to run the table too. best of luck to ya
crazyakes says:
10/22/11 12:22AM
Nice post, lots of good information.

I like the Ravens to dominate the Jags. They tear up rookie qb's and they're on a mission to be seen as the best Ravens D ever, as well as getting healthy.

The packers game will be closer. Ponder will be better then mcnabb immediately. I expect a lot of bootlegs and a few QB runs and he'll show off a good arm. Good call with packers in a teaser because I do think they win but by a TD or less.

The chargers game seems one sided, but hardly so. Every time I watch the Jets I think the same thing....sanchez sucks, they can't run, they can't block, but somehow they win. They have that tenacious D fired up. As far as the Norv Turner comments, LOL @ his teams motivation, yeah right. They all hate Norv and alternate laughing at him and crying about how bad of a coach he is. Maybe 3 players get fired up to defend Norv.

Finally, the Jets Chargers game is at 1pm. This shocks me. West coast teams traveling east almost always play 4pm or night games. They are flying 3000 miles and will be warming up at 8-9am "local time" for chargers. Kickoff at 10am. To me, this spells disaster. I think the Dolphins had their backs against the walls to not go 0-5 fighting for their coach and the Jets fought through a divisional dogfight, but being the home team they will recover and beat the chargers in a close one.

Gates back helps but V Jacksons hammy is a killer. LT will be amped as will the jets o-line.

Good luck.

ScottCooley says:
10/22/11 04:32AM
Exactly the kind of feedback I was look for crazyakes. Let me get back at you tomorrow...
ScottCooley says:
10/22/11 03:13PM
I agree Ponder could give the Pack some trouble. He is an immense upgrade and his mobility will help offset the protection that hasn't been there.

Like I said, I don't really respect Norv as a head coach, not sure about his players. He's a great OC but not a great head coach. All I'm saying is that whenever Fat Rex opens his mouth the other team is always listening. They all want to keep proving him wrong.

The early start is a concern but so far this season WC teams playing out East have fared pretty well.

LT will be pumped but so will his old teammates on the other side of the ball. They've already proved letting him go was the right move and they will want to drive home that fact Sunday.

And of course all the Jets money started coming in Friday, and I'm kicking myself. Definitely not one of my favorite plays of the season but one I was willing to make.

prostuntman says:
10/22/11 03:29PM
regardless of how they played last week/this season or whatever, the jets will start to roll again and do whatever it takes to find ways to win. its never pretty, they just find ways.
ScottCooley says:
10/22/11 05:27PM
Cook and Winfield out for Vikes. It may NOT be a close game...
ScottCooley says:
10/22/11 05:30PM
I don't see the Jets getting on a roll with that schedule prostuntman. Could be two straight losses coming out of the bye and then they see Eagles and Giants B2B end of season. But I can't disagree that they win a lot of ugly games.
ScottCooley says:
10/22/11 11:18PM
Added play for NFL Week 7: Steelers -3 (-130)
g37mt6 says:
10/23/11 02:28AM
good pick Scott, I think GB will blow out Vikings no matter whos behind the center and my money is on denver and Atl .......GL
ScottCooley says:
10/23/11 11:40AM
Thanks g37. Can't argue with either of your picks. Best of luck bud.
sportspicks says:
10/23/11 12:41PM
gl. for some reason i think either GB or NO will lose straight up.
ScottCooley says:
10/23/11 12:55PM
Thanks sportspicks, good luck to you as well
g37mt6 says:
10/23/11 04:38PM
who you leaning on Scott? NO or Colts
ScottCooley says:
10/23/11 05:27PM
I'd lean toward Colts at +14 but really don't have much of an opinion either way. GL
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