GB is on an incredible streak ATS (5-0) with three of those games on the road. This week, they are in a bad spot after coming off a HUGE blowout win against their division rival and leader.
Both teams are 5-5 but this game is a do or die game for NO. They pretty much have no chance in their DIV and are 1.5 games back from the final wild card spot. Thier last 5 games of the season are against TB,CAR,ATL,CHI, and DET. This is a must win game for them and its at home on MNF,
On the other side, GB can still lose this game and be in a reasonable spot to still win their DIV. They hold the tie breaker with a 3-1 Div record splitting the season series with MIN. Their last 5 games are very favorable with JAC, DET, HOU, CHI, and CAR.
NO is a much better team at home and should be back to form with a 430 ypg avg at home while their D gives up 60 less ypg at home. Even without BUSH..Deuce should do just fine against a GB D that is 0.8 yards per run worse than the league avg on defense. I see NO winning this game in a shootout.
Looking at the game from a Money Angle...This week is much like week 6 and week 10.
In week 6..all the lopsided money games went about 50/50..on SNF SD was favored by -6 and the public was jumping on them (The line moved from -5.5 to -6 and 57 percent of the bets were on SD) SD covered with a lopsided MNF game coming up after it. (the line moved -1 towards the gmen and 72% of bets were on them as well)
In week 10...all the lopsided games were won by the public 4-0. On SNF the GMEN were fav by -3 and 52 percent of the bets were on them as well. They covered and again..there was a lopsided MNF game following it. On MNF the CARDS were fav by -9.5 and the line moved to -10. 80% of the bets were on the CARDS.
This week, lopsided money games are 4-1 in favor of the public (NE, NYG, CHI, PIT). SNF...66% of all bets were on INDY with the line moving from +3 to +2.5...INDY covered and again we have a lopsided MNF game to follow (78% on GB with the line moving 0.5 towards GB)
There have only been 3 weeks where the public has been up BIG...with the SNF public pick covering..and a lopsided MNF game to follow. Week 6, Week 10, and this Week
Looking at this game from both angles...I'm rolling with the...
New Orleans Saints -2.5BOL everyone!!!