Posted Monday, August 15, 2011 03:12 PM
Here are 11 Season Win Totals that caught my interest, but still more research (especially injury and depth chart research) needs to be done.
Please tell me what you think, and please feel free to share your picks/leans:
My Top Four
- TENN under 6.5 is at +105 odds
- CLE under 6.5 is -105
- CIN 5.5 under is -130
- Carolina over is 4.5 at -135
Middle Ground Picks (less confidence in these, but I saw something that made me initially like them)
- TB is 8 ---- tempted to go under, depending on schedule.
- Miami is 7.5 --- I would go under, which is -135
- OAK is 6.5 ---- tempted to go under, given that division. Under is +110. Still have to check their schedule though.
- NYG is 9.5. Tempted to under, which is -160.
- AZ over 6.5. Odds are terrible at -165.
Lines that surprised me a bit (could go either way, more research needed):
- 49ers are at 7.5 -- tempted to go under at -105.
- People hate the Redskins "under" at 6.5 That is at -210.
Posted Tuesday, February 08, 2011 08:55 AM
Question is simple enough. I know the faves are Giants and Rocks, but personally I don't see the Giants repeating. Padres seem to have removed themselves from contention, Dodgers actually got better (no Manny), and the Dbacks are more like the Dbags of the division.
So here's a guesstimate:
5. Minor league team
Posted Saturday, January 29, 2011 04:39 AM
My professor mentioned this roulette strategy in class. He says it worked for him, and he's got a priceless reputation for being overly honest. Personally, I've never played roulette before until tonight, and I don't have the algorithm for how his theory works.
Anyways, curious as to what you think the pros/cons of this strategy are. Don't worry - I can't personally see myself ever playing this game and expecting to win, just curious what you think about the expected value here.
Please pardon my ignorance, I don't know shit about the game.
Here are the rules of my professor's game:
Roulette has "dozens bets."
Definition of Dozen Bets: a bet on either the first (1-12), second (13-24), or third (25-36) twelve numbers. Payouts on these bets are almost always 2-1.
1. Pick two dozens (Ex: I picked 1-12, and 13-24).
2. Bet those two dozens every time. You should win approximately two-thirds of the time. (In American roulette, they have 0 and 00, so this actually makes your win rate less than two-thirds of the time.)
3. If you win, keep your bet the same.
4. If you lose, double your bet. Repeat until win. Once you win, decrease your bet to your original amount.
The overall goal of Prof's game was, and I quote:
"My hypothesis was, if I can find a game where you can stay in the game for the longest period of the time . . . well at some point you're up, you quit when y... [More]
Posted Saturday, October 30, 2010 08:08 PM
I think Tenn. is probably the easiest team to pick this week, w/ my only primary concern being the QB injuries to Tenn. I like the Tenn D v. SD, and I like their offense against SD. Also, all of SD's receivers missed practice Thurs due to injury. But, the moneyline shows that a ton more people are betting on the Chargers. What am I missing? Why are the Chargers so popular?
(BTW - I am aware of the "East Coast team traveling West Coast theory.")
Posted Wednesday, March 31, 2010 01:05 AM
Any thoughts on SPs to bet against this year? Who's on your shit list for just being turrible?
Phil Dumatrait is my favorite pitcher to bet against (3-10 since 2007), but this year he won't get a start with the Detroit Tigers (they've got talent above him).
If Kevin Correia gets injured or if something happens, I'll start watching him carefully too. That 88-mph fastball works quite well when he's healthy, but if he's got a bum leg, that pitch tends to hang. I liked betting against him in '08, but those damn Padres fixed something, cuz he had a good year in '09.
Please lemme know if you've got any doomed SPs. Always fun to bet against the worst. Problem is, like Dumatrait, they lose enough and they're out after a while.