SpacemanSpliff's Blog

Spliffpicks Week 8

By SpacemanSpliff | View all Posts
Posted Friday, October 19, 2012 01:26 PM   5 comments
First time I've done this, wanted to get my picks (and thoughts) out there and see what people think.

Card
Penn State (+3) @ Iowa, SAT 8
Tulsa (-20.5) vs Rice, SAT 330
Ball State (-3) & C Michigan, SAT 330
Syracuse (-4.5) vs UCONN, FRI 8

Analysis
Penn State (+3) @ Iowa, SAT 8
I like Penn State here. They're coming off a bye, and given the surprisingly creative offense Bill O'Brien has showed this year, you can bet that extra time is gonna translate into some significant wrinkles -- trick play(s), new formations. Iowa, on the other hand, is coming off a very emotional double-OT win last week and just won't have close to the same level of preparation.

Penn State also has some young players that have blossomed in recent weeks -- WR Alfred Robinson and RB Zach Zwinak. Those guys have made serious impact on PSU's last three games after quiet starts, and I expect the same in Iowa.

Yes, Iowa's defense is stout -- 28th vs pass, 31st vs run -- but Penn State isn't going to have to score too many points because Mark Weisman, Iowa’s sophomore tailback with 631 yards and 8 TDs in 4 starts, is banged up. Badly. He's medically cleared to play after injuring his ankle last week, and I am sure he will see action, but I expect him to be seriously limited. You just can't play RB with a badly sprained ankle. Other than Weisman, they can't score -- Iowa has only thrown for two TDs all year.

I expect something like 20-9, Penn State, with the Nittany Lions grinding out some long drives, winning field position battles (their FG kicker is not good) and generally controlling the flow of the game.

Tulsa (-20.5) vs Rice, SAT 330
This game should be ugly, but will it be ugly enough? Tulsa’s 13th-ranked, 44.1 ppg offense takes on Rice’s 96th-ranked defense, which gives up 36.1 ppg, and their trio of running backs will keep fresh legs pounding the Owls all game.

We know Tulsa is going to score enough points. Sounds pretty ugly, but could Rice keep up? Maybe. Rice has put up some numbers themselves --- 34 last week vs UTSA, but before that were shut down offensively by Memphis (14 pts) and Houston (10 pts). The head-to-head comparison vs Marshall is telling -- Both teams played Marshall very close, with Rice losing 56-51 (double OT) and Tulsa winning 45-38.

So why eat the points? Tulsa’s defense was stymied by the sheer number of weapons Marshall had on offense, but Rice doesn’t have that nearly that sort of range. Also, Tulsa shut down Marshall when they had to, forcing to punts late to seal against Marshall. II expect Tulsa’s defense (leading the NCAA with 33 sacks and 60 tackles for a loss) to be very aggressive in this game. They’re gonna give up some big plays AND they’re gonna force Rice’s QB McHargue into turnovers. Once that happens, Tulsa’s offense is just gonna pull away. Will Rice score? Sure, but I see Tulsa covering comfortably, something like 55-20.
Report Abuse
 
5 comments
comment Post A Comment
SpacemanSpliff says:
10/19/12 01:26PM
efff... I meant week 8.

Ball State (-3) & C Michigan, SAT 330
I starting digging into this game after JDMONEY (who is absolutely crushing it this year) made it one of his Monster Plays, and I liked what I found.

C Michigan got pasted by Navy 31-14 last week, their third straight loss and the fourth straight time their defense has given up 31+. Their senior QB got benched, they got embarrassed on national television and they’ll be looking for redemption at home during Homecoming.

They won’t get it. Chippewa opponents are averaging more than 39 a game, so expect Ball State to move the ball and put up points with their MAC-leading, 21st-in-the country offense. QB Keith Wenning has a 62.9% completion rate averages 286.4 yards per game, but the biggest mismatch in the game is Ball State’s capable rushing attack (195 ypg) versus C Michigan’s porous run defense (last in the MAC).Jahwan Edwards should trample his way to 150+ yards and a couple TDs, allowing Ball St to control dominate time of possession and limit turnover risk.

C Michigan’s offense has been hit-and-miss, with their passing numbers inflated because they’ve constantly been playing from behind, but the Cardinals defense has been very soft, allowing over 500 yards a game. That said, they have been improving from game to game, and finished very strong last week, allowing only one third-down conversion and three points while forcing five punts in the second half. I expect that performance to carry over.

After three costly turnovers last week vs W Michigan, Ball State still pulled it out, and I don’t see them losing this one either. C Michigan has given up 50+ to the only two MAC teams they’ve played, this smells like another beating.

Syracuse (-4.5) vs UCONN, FRI 8
I like Syracuse laying the points here, mostly because I can’t see UCONN scoring more than ten points. The Huskies’ offense is terrible, averaging 19.0 ppg, and Syracuse effectively shut down the ground games of Rutgers and Pitt over the last two weeks, allowing a COMBINED 112 yards on the ground thanks to a monster linebacking corps. Sure, Lyle McCombs, UCONN’s senior tailback, is returning from a wrist injury and will give them a big upgrade over last week’s trembling freshman, but he’ll still be playing in a cast (fuuumble) and is gonna get popped all day. Plus, the UCONN FG kicker missed four last week, so he isn’t gonna sniff anything longer than about 35. This is the Huskies team that was shut out during the last three quarters and OT last week, and that’s what I expect to continue.

But can Syracuse score themselves? After being plagued by turnovers, terrible false starts penalties, some really ugly missed blocking assignments, special teams bed-shitting and assorted asshattery, I expect the Orangemen to play a much less messy game -- UCONN, defensively, is very strong, but they don’t quite have the speed and ferocity of Rutgers. Remember, Syracuse outgained Rutgers 418-237 last week, but four turnovers later they lost 23-15. If Syracuse can execute and not turn the ball over, they’ll win by 10+.
zoocorp says:
10/20/12 01:19AM
I think your good, but 20.5 is a lot to give. I haven't seen Rice play, but seen Tulsa at least 2x if not 3. They are pretty decent but will give up some points. So, if it's a scoring war or if they jump out to big lead like Oregon last night you could be tight coming home with that one.

But on the other hand, I would take Rice +20 and not even sure I'd bet anything on them if I got 27.

zoocorp says:
10/20/12 01:23AM
So I just checked Rice boxes and they seem to keep it pretty close and Tulsa has won by 20+ only @x this yr. and Nicholls St is a I-AA school
SpacemanSpliff says:
10/21/12 08:33AM
Man, you were right about Rice! Should have given the Marshall results more credit. Still, I'll take 3-1. Actually went 8-2 this week in all CFB, but those were the four I really dug into.
cyrusdarius says:
10/21/12 12:45PM
I had Tulsa on a ML Parlay. Still wiping the crap out of pants.....
Add your response:
Please note that the blogger has the option of reviewing all comments before they are displayed to the public. Your comment may not be published immediately.
 

Profile

User: SpacemanSpliff
Joined: August 2012
Location: District of Columbia
Team: Washington Redskins
Occupation: Sales/Marketing

Recent Posts

Archive

open2012

Categories