At first I'm hearing..."This is a laugher...Yanks win in a blowout." Then I start hearing..."This isn't really a laugher, the Twins are playing great ball and Sabathia sucks in the postseason. Twins have a legit shot at winning this game."
Don't do this to yourself. This is the playoffs...don't worry about "value" in individual games. Everyone on here said the Twins would win tonight. They were HUGE Public favorites and I think "sharp" money was going on the Tigers. Well in big games like this, it really doesn't matter what the line is or who has "value" or not. Teams go out there and try their hardest to win every single game.
Lets think. 1st pitch is scheduled for 21 hours after the final out of the 163rd game of the season. Postgame celebration. Thanking the fans. Postgame interviews. Getting to the airport. Getting on a plane. Flying to New York. All that would mean they probably wont get into New York until 12:30-1:00 or so. By the time they get to the hotel and ready, give that another half an hour or so. Finally...for them to get to sleep? They'll probably get like 4 hours of sleep and it will be AWFUL for them.
Sabathia has had no success in the postseason in the past. I know. But he was always in a tight race and started on multiple short days rest. Remember last season? How many games on 3 days rest did he start? He had no pressure going into this postseaosn. The Yankees didn't ride him like the horse he is. If he has a bad outing in Game 1, then I will admit that he is not a good postseason pitcher. Duensing is starting for the Yanks. How much pressure is on this rookie? First Playoff Game and it's AT Yankee Stadium? That has got to be too much to handle. Even if he gets roughed up in the first then settles down, the Yankees would probably rough him up enough. They haven't seen him before which may be the only downside.
The Twins' bullpen has been overused lately. They were overused in Game 163. And not just overused...Crain and Nathan went over an inning and those 2 are pretty important relievers. The Yankees' bullpen is set. They have 2 lefties for matchup purposes against Kubel. Aside from that they have Aceves, Joba, Hughes and Mo. I really don't think I have to go much further with that topic.
Morneau and Mauer are Yankee Killers. Morneau is gone, so Kubel backs up him up. Kubel is AWFUL against lefties. He'll face Sabathia and Pettitte. So if the Yanks don't want to face Mauer, they don't have to. Speaking of Mauer, he just went 12 innings and he's got to be worn out just a little bit for at least Game 1. Cuddyer and Young have been hot, but they haven't faced pitching that the Yanks have...simple as that. Yankees obviously have the lineup advantage.
Burnett will pitch to Molina. While pitching to Molina, batters are hititng .221 against him. When pitching to Posada, batters hit .270. So thats another plus. Especially with the fact that the Yanks will have a great arm at the backstop for game 2 to stop the speed and small ball that the Twins' play. If Burnett gets in trouble, Molina may be able to bail him out with his arm.
X-Factor...the Yanks are taking Gardner AND Guzman for late inning base stealing and defensive purposes. Hey...for those possible close games in the 9th inning, I rather have Melky, Gardner and Guzman in the outfield as opposed to Melky, Swisher and Damon.
Yankees OWN the Twins. They have won 23 of their last 26 against them. The last time the Yankees won a playoff series...it was against the Twins. So...the Twins have been the comeback kids of late. Well...the Yankees have had that name all season. They have the most comebacks in baseball. They have the most walkoffs in baseball. And the Twins certainly know that as they had 3 straight against them. The Yanks hit from top to bottom of their lineup. And we know they can hit the long ball but they can also play small ball. Molina, Melky, Guzman and Gardner can all play small ball and thats something the Yanks don't usually have. It's a major plus for that team.
A-Rod is no longer dealing with pressure. The pressure is no longer all on his shoulder. Now with Tex, Sabathia and Burnett on the payroll, the attention is spread around, which is great for him. Maybe, for once, he can play relaxed as he has all season long where he quitely put together a supurb season. Maybe now he can finally put all that talk behind him and put up a solid postseason and throw all that "choking" bullshit behind him.
Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada, Andrew Eugene Pettitte. The leaders of this team. All have postseason experience and all are proven themselves in big spots. No need to worry about them.
Righty, Lefty, Switch, Righty, Lefty, Switch, Lefty, Switch, Switch. That is the Yankees' lineup. How scary is that with any pitcher the Yankees face? Thats why they have had so much success this season. It's so hard to get matchups against them. Duensing is a lefty, so the Yankees have 6 rights and 3 lefties who can hit lefties. Everyone else is a righty so the Yanks have 7 lefties and 2 righties who can hit anyone. Mijares has proven he is not good in tight spots and Mahay is a National League pitcher who isn't cut out for the AL.
Thats my take on this...basically a bunch of jibberish but I had fun typing it.