Statsational's Blog

Posted Thursday, September 08, 2011 02:23 PM

Statsationals NFL Picks With Kelly

I have a database of stats for almost 20 years of NFL stats.  Its extremely comprehensive.  I put together about 100 trends, based on these stats, that have been successful.  Successful trends are determined by those that have been profitable over many years and many games.  The "home dog on Monday night coming off an ATS loss to a divisional opponent that is 12-0 in the last 12 games" trend (I am making this up) is not counted because 12 games do not make up enough of a sample set to determine whether or not the trend is worth playing.

The trends are complex and I can not go into each one.  Some games will qualify for multiple trends some for just one and some none at all.  The ones that give me a probability of 53% or more I will be playing.  I will post here the side and percentages as well as the amount played if you were using a Kelly System.  The games will be played all at the same time, regardless of when they are being played.  I will also post the parlays that should be played as well.  I want to see how well I can do with this.  Lets start now.

$500 Starting Bankroll

Kelly Multiplier = 1

7 Games

1. Buffalo +6.5        -        58%
2. Miami +7            -        58%
3. Detroit +1.5        -        56%
[More]

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