SteveA2009's Blog

Posted Saturday, August 15, 2015 02:44 PM

SteveA's MLB August 15

Yesterday:  1-1, 0.00 units
Season:  149-182, -18.19 units

   Cubs -117 vs White Sox (Intertops)

Posted Monday, August 10, 2015 08:38 PM

SteveA's MLB August 10

Yesterday:  1-0, +1.05 units
Season:  145-176, -14.39 units

   Phillies +165 vs Diamondbacks (Intertops) - Phillies have been the best team in baseball since the All Star Break and Arizona does not seem to have a strong pitching advantage, so this line is too high.  Ride the hot team.

   Nationals +105 vs Dodgers  (Intertops) - both teams coming off tough losses and cross country flights, but LA's was late at night while Nationals arrived in LA at a reasonable hour.  Dodgers might have some key batters out of the lineup (Gonzalez, Pederson), while Nat's have just gotten their big gums back and the lineup is nearly at full strength for the first time all year.

Posted Saturday, August 01, 2015 01:11 PM

SteveA's MLB August 1

Wednesday:  1-3, -1.97 units
Thursday:  3-1, +1.93 units
Friday:  0-2, -2.13 units
Season:  140-168, -11.02 units

   Rays +113 vs Red Sox (Intertops) - Joe Kelly isn't very good.  Red Sox weaker vs lefties.  And Sox lineup without Betts and Pedroia looks pretty soft.

Posted Tuesday, July 07, 2015 06:56 PM

SteveA's MLB July 7

Yesterday:  2-0, +2.10 units
Season:  126-149, -7.96 units

   Astros +157 vs Indians (Intertops)

Posted Monday, July 06, 2015 06:58 PM

SteveA's MLB July 6

Yesterday:  1-2, -1.00 units
Season:  124-149, -10.06 units

   Pirates -115 vs Padres (Intertops)

   Astros +110 vs Indians (Intertops)

Posted Thursday, July 02, 2015 10:20 AM

SteveA's MLB July 1

Yesterday:  0-1, -1.00 units
Season:  120-140, -6.20 units

The carnage continues...

   Mets -120 vs Cubs (Intertops)

Posted Saturday, June 27, 2015 10:05 AM

SteveA's MLB June 27

Yesterday:  2-1, +1.04 units
Season:  119-131, +2.15 units

   Astros +110 vs Yankees (Intertops)

Posted Tuesday, June 23, 2015 06:44 PM

SteveA's MLB June 23

Yesterday:  1-1, +0.57 units
Season:  113-124, +2.44 units

   Phillies +250 vs Yankees (Intertops) - simply too high given how up and down Sabathia has been.  And the Phillies have hit lefty pitching well.

   Braves +157 vs Nationals (Intertops) - Braves are playing well.  Strasburg is going to have to prove he merits being this big a favorite.

   Orioles +102 vs Red Sox (Intertops)

Posted Monday, June 22, 2015 07:42 PM

SteveA's MLB June 22

Yesterday:  2-3, -0.60 units
Season:  112-123, +1.87

Always amazed at how streaky baseball betting can be, and I'm definitely in a cold streak now.  But...still up for the year.

   Cubs +157 vs Dodgers (Intertops) - yeah, I know, Kershaw.  But the Dodgers are only 8-6 in his starts, 3-4 on the road.  His road ERA is over 4.  And the Dodgers have a poor road record overall, well under .500.  L/R splits also point to the Cubs in this battle of southpaws, as they hit lefties better than eighties, while the Dodgers are weaker vs LH.

   Astros +119 vs Angels (Intertops) - since getting healthy, Oberholtzer has had one bad start, and that was vs Toronto, a team that destroys left-handed pitching like none other in baseball.  He's been excellent otherwise, and the Astros are playing better than the Angels lately and have held their own on the road all year.

Posted Saturday, June 13, 2015 01:25 PM

SteveA's MLB June 13

Yesterday:  1-0, +1.00 units
Season:  96-100, +4.46 units

   Blue Jays +112 vs Red Sox (Intertops) - just can't justify the hottest team in baseball being an underdog to a team that is 8 games under .500 and playing poorly.  The pitching matchup is not favorable to Toronto but the Jays offense is far superior, scoring a whopping 1.6 runs per game more than Boston

Posted Thursday, June 11, 2015 06:45 PM

SteveA's MLB June 11

Yesterday:  3-2, +1.75 units
Season:  95-98, +5.46 units

   Giants +116 vs Mets (Intertops)

   Rockies +121 vs Marlins (Intertops)

Posted Wednesday, June 10, 2015 10:33 AM

SteveA's MLB June 10

Yesterday:  1-4, -2.90 units
Season:  92-96, +3.73 units

   Marlins +143 vs Blue Jays (Intertops)

   Nationals +117 vs Yankees (Intertops)

Posted Sunday, June 07, 2015 11:57 AM

SteveA's MLB June 7

Yesterday:  1-1, +0.38 unitsSeason:  88-87 +8.08 units
A whole ton of underdogs with a good shot at winning today...hoping for 4 out of 7:
   Angels +100 vs Yankees (Intertops) -- Sabathia not very good and he's been pounded at home.
   Astros +105 vs Blue Jays (Intertops) -- Better starting pitcher, and Jays are weaker vs RH pitching.   Astros have the better bullpen too.
   Braves +135 vs Pirates (Intertops) -- Yes, Cole is an excellent pitcher.   But the Pirates are under .500 on the road, waker vs lefthanded pitching, and Brave starter Alex Wood has 4 straight quality starts.   
   Rangers +115 vs Royals (Intertops) -- both starters have one horrific outing in the past few games, but take that away and Lewis' recent starts have been better than Guthrie's.   Rangers are playing better baseballthan the Royals right now.
   Cubs +130 vs Nationals (Intertops) -- Nats aren't playing well, Cubs have the better offense and a very good pitcher on the mound.  Cubs won this exact pitching matchup in Chicago a week and a half ago.   Have to think they have something approaching a 50/50 shot here even with Zimmerman on the mound.
   Diamondbacks +110 vs Mets (Intertops) -- When a team is 9-19 on the road and is a road favorite, it doesn't take a heck of a lot for me to look at the home underdog.  D'backs have the higher scoring offense and a fairly decent... [More]

Posted Saturday, June 06, 2015 12:40 PM

SteveA's MLB June 6

Yesterday:  1-1, +0.05 units
Season:  87-86, +7.70 units

   Astros +145 vs Blue Jays (Intertops) -- Despite Toronto's performance vs LH pitchers and performance at home, I still feel this line is too high against the first place Astros.

   Rangers +138 vs Royals (Intertops) -- Rangers playing very good ball, Rodriguez pitching welll, another good number.

Posted Wednesday, June 03, 2015 10:55 AM

SteveA's MLB June 3

Yesterday:  1-1, +0.12 units
Season:  83-81, +7.87 units

   Twins +135 vs Red Sox (Intertops) -- yes, Eddy Rodriguez was dominant in his first game.   But given theTwins' continued success vs lefthanded pitching, I have to take them at this number.

Posted Friday, May 29, 2015 07:50 PM

SteveA's MLB May 28

Yesterday:  1-2, -1.00 units
Season:  75-79, +3.34 units

Just one today:   

   Indians +105 vs Mariners (Intertops) -- In a battle of two young, highly touted starters, Taijuan Walker isn't getting the job done right now, and Trevor Bauer is.  Indians have a winning road record and good recent play.   Robby Cano is likely not in the Seattle lineup.  So this game looks like what I'm always looking for:   an underdog that pays better than even money that I feel has a 50/50 shot to win.

Posted Thursday, May 28, 2015 06:28 PM

SteveA's MLB May 28

Yesterday:  1-2, -0.45 units
Season:  74-77, +4.34 units

   Rangers +113 vs Red Sox (Intertops) -- home underdog vs a slumping Boston team, and Texas starter Martinez is having a great season.

   A's +100 vs Yankees (Intertops) -- purely an anti-Sabathia pick.

   Braves +125 vs Giants (Intertops) -- I know San Fran is hot, but Shelby Miller is Shelby Miller.

Posted Wednesday, May 27, 2015 08:48 AM

SteveA's MLB May 27

Yesterday:  1-1, +0.35 units
Season:  73-75, +4.79 units

 A couple of quick day games before I head to work...

   Rangers +150 vs Indians (Intertops)

   Royals +133 vs Yankees (Intertops)

Posted Tuesday, May 26, 2015 07:28 PM

SteveA's MLB May 26

Yesterday:  1-2, -0.67 units
Season:  72-74, +4.44 units

   Twins +135 vs Red Sox (Intertops) -- Team with the significantly better record, with a starting pitcher who has put up the better stats, as a pretty big home underdog.   Pretty much an auto-play for me.

   Braves +220 vs Dodgers (Intertops) -- Do I necessarily think the Braves are going to win?   No.   But Teheran is a good pitcher and Kershaw is not having his usual dominant year up to this point, and I certainly think the Braves have at least a 1 in 3 chance to win, which makes this bet profitable in the long run.

Posted Saturday, May 23, 2015 11:47 AM

SteveA's MLB May 23

Yesterday:  1-0, +1.07 units
Season:  66-69, +1.47 units

   Rangers +138 vs Yankees (Intertops) -- Yankees in a tailspin, and certainly Martinez is out-pitching Sabathia this year by a big margin.

   Phillies +135 vs Nationals (Intertops) -- Strasburg has not exactly been lights out this year.  

   Braves -112 vs Brewers (Intertops) -- Don't understand why this is so low.

   Twins +157 vs White Sox (Intertops) -- Twins hitting lefties well.   This number is too high.

Posted Friday, May 22, 2015 05:57 PM

SteveA's MLB May 22

Yesterday:  1-0, +1.60 units
Season:  65-69, +0.40 units

Back in the black after being over 6 units down for the years a couple days ago.

   Angels +107 vs Red Sox (Intertops) -- Better starting pitcher, and Red Sox aren't hitting.   Sandoval still out of the lineup after being hit in the knee the other night, while Pujols is back in the Angel lineup.

Posted Sunday, May 17, 2015 01:07 PM

SteveA's MLB May 17

Yesterday:  0-3, -3.00 units
Season:  57-63, -5.56 units

   Braves +117 vs Marlins (Intertops)

Posted Saturday, May 16, 2015 06:40 PM

SteveA's MLB May 16

Yesterday:  0-2, -2.46 units
Season: 57-62, -0.56 units

   Brewers +124 vs Mets (Intertops) -- Brewers have been playing a bit better the past week or so.  Mets have lost 5 straight and their offense is pathetic, they've gone > 3 runs just 4 times in the past 13 games.  Garza has 4 straight quality starts.   Mets are just 3-4 in deGrom's 7 starts.   Seems to me the Brewers have a 50/50 shot here.

Posted Tuesday, May 12, 2015 06:10 PM

SteveA's MLB May 12

Yesterday:  2-2, +0.41 units
Season:  54-55, +3.10 units

    Rangers +127 vs Royals (Hard Rock Hotel Sports Book, Las Vegas)

Posted Monday, May 11, 2015 06:43 PM

SteveA's MLB May 11

Saturday:  2-3, -0.80 units
Sunday:  no plays
Season:  52-53, +2.69 units

   Rays -107 vs Yankees (Intertops) - this Colome kid looks pretty good and I think Sabathia is washed up.

   Braves +133 vs Mets (Intertops) - I can never pass up a quality starting pitcher like Miller at this type of number.  All he has to do is keep the Braves in the game and the terrible Red bullpen stands a good chance of handing them the game.

   Mets +135 vs Cubs (Intertops) - another starting g pitcher who is way too good to be this significant an underdog.

   Rangers +115 vs Royals (Intertops)

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