SteveA2009's Blog

Posted Saturday, May 02, 2015 06:57 PM

SteveA's MLB May 2

Yesterday:  2-1, +0.76 units
Season:  39-42, +0.24 units

   Braves +103 vs Reds (Intertops)

Posted Thursday, April 30, 2015 07:07 PM

SteveA's MLB April 30

Yesterday:  1-2, -0.80 units
Season:  37-39, +1.48 units

   Braves +117 vs Reds (Intertops)

   Tigers +107 vs Royals (Intertops)

Posted Wednesday, April 29, 2015 06:00 AM

SteveA's MLB April 29

Yesterday;  1-0, +1.55 units
Season:  36-37, +2.78 units

   Astros +120 vs Padres (Intertops) -- Yes, the Padres' great numbers so far vs lefty pitching is certainly a concern.   But Keuchel has been absolutely lights out, the Astros are 9-2 on the road and playing great, it's hard to argue that they don't have a 50/50 shot in this one.

   Royals +120 vs Indians (Intertops)

Posted Monday, April 27, 2015 07:54 PM

SteveA's MLB April 27

Yesterday:  2-2, +0.47 units
Season:  34-36, +1.29 units

Well, at least the stretch of 4 straight losing days was ended before I fell below even for the year.

   Rangers -111 vs Mariners (Intertops) -- a couple teams playing about the same level of baseball, Rangers are at home, and Gallardo has pitched way better than Walker.

   Astros +105 vs Padres (Intertops) -- McHugh is the real deal.

Posted Sunday, April 26, 2015 01:52 PM

SteveA's MLB April 26

Yesterday:  2-3, -0.75 units
Season:  32-34, +0.82 units

The losing streak continues, but I'm still up for the season... barely.

   Cardinals -126 vs Brewers (Intertops) -- Not sure why this dropped so much from the opening line.   Yeah, no Holliday or Molina in the SL lineup, but Milwaukee has no Braun or Matt Lucroy.

   Rangers +140 vs Angels (Intertops) -- Just looking at value here, line is too high given how well Martinez has pitched.

   Twins +133 vs Mariners (Intertops) -- Both teams 7-10, Twins have the better starting pitcher on the mound in my opinoin, once again I see value at this number.

   Mets +140 vs Yankees (Intertops) -- Seems pretty close to an even game to me, no idea why the line is so high.


Posted Saturday, April 25, 2015 03:14 PM

SteveA's MLB April 25

Yesterday:  1-5, -4.14 units
Season:  30-31, +1.57 units

   Mets +125 vs Yankees (Intertops)

   Blue Jays +102 vs Rays (Intertops) -- Erasmo Ramirez has nothing.  Norris might not either, but the Jays have the better offensive team.

Posted Thursday, April 23, 2015 10:00 AM

SteveA's MLB April 23

Yesterday;  0-5, -5.35 units
Season:  28-24, +6.48 units

Guess all hot streaks have to come to an end!

   Tigers +105 vs Yankees (Intertops)

   Cardinals +123 vs Nationals (Intertops)

Posted Monday, April 20, 2015 09:55 AM

SteveA's MLB April 20

Yesterday:  4-1, +4.00 units
Season:  22-16, +8.00 units

   Orioles +110 vs Red Sox (Intertops) -- Weather doesn't look good, don't know if they'll get this in.   But Justin Masterson isn't any good.

Posted Sunday, April 19, 2015 01:06 PM

SteveA's MLB April 19

Yesterday:  2-1, +1.08 units
Season:  18-15, +4.00 units

   Braves +157 vs Blue Jays (Intertops) -- No way should this line be this high.

   Yankees/Rays over 7 -120 (Intertops) -- Yankees are scoring 5.36 rpg so far this year and they have their full lineup today, except at catcher.   And they are facing some spot starter who didn't get out of the 4th inning in his only major league start, and who is backed by a Tampa bullpen that has put up a 6.25 ERA and who just cut their highest paid reliever because he sucks.   So the Yankees should approach the 7 runs on their own.   The Rays are averaging 4.36 runs per game.  Yes they are facing a good starter in Pineda, backed by a great New York bullpen.   But we might no need more than a run or two from the Rays to hit this total.

   Orioles +130 vs Red Sox (Intertops)

   Padres +112 vs Cubs (Intertops) -- Lester is off to a terrible start and the new high octane Padre offense is hitting .343 vs lefties so far this year.   Cashner is an ace caliber pitcher who recovered from his first bad start to have a great outing last time out, walking one and striking out 9.

Posted Saturday, April 18, 2015 10:47 AM

SteveA's MLB April 18

Yesterday:  4-2, +3.21 units
Season:  16-14, +2.92 units

   Braves +133 vs Blue Jays (Intertops) -- Blue Jays just aren't playing well right now, have to take advantage of opportunities to make coin fading them before they right the ship.  Reyes is out, and Dickey has been hammered the last 3 times he has faced the Braves.   Have to feel Atlanta has close to a 50/50 shot to win this one.

   White Sox +108 vs Tigers (Intertops) -- Sale looked like he was in great form in his first start off the DL (1 walk, 8 strikeouts).  We know when he is on he can be a game dominating pitcher.   The fact that he was recovering from a broken foot and not anything elbow or shoulder related means I don't show my normal caution with a pitcher in his first few starts off the DL.   Last start proved the arm is sound and he's a good enough starter to keep the Sox in the game against anyone, even the mighty Tigers.

Posted Friday, April 17, 2015 06:27 PM

SteveA's MLB April 17

Yesterday:  1-0, +1.50 units
Season:  12-13, +0.29 units

   Braves +138 vs Blue Jays (Intertops)

   Mets -130 vs Marlins (Intertops)

   Orioles +130 vs Red Sox (Intertops)

Posted Thursday, April 16, 2015 08:36 PM

SteveA's MLB April 16

Yesterday:  3-0, +3.95 units
Season:  11-13, -1.21 units

   Diamondbacks +150 vs Giants (Intertops) -- Bradley looked spectacular in his debut.   Bumgarner struggled all spring, and had a poor first start.   The Giants are playing terrible right now.   Have to believe Arizona stands at least a 40% chance to win this one.

Posted Tuesday, April 14, 2015 07:59 PM

SteveA's MLB April 14

Sunday:  1-1, +0.08 units
Monday:  1-1, -0.35 units
Season:  7-13, -6.20 units

   Rangers +104 vs Dodgers (Intertops)

Posted Sunday, April 12, 2015 03:22 PM

SteveA's MLB April 12

Yesterday:  1-3, -2.19 units
Season:  5-11, -5.93 units

   Royals +108 vs Angels (Intertops)

Posted Saturday, April 11, 2015 04:05 PM

SteveA's MLB April 11

I posted my first game with the wrong date so I'll repost that here.   Another loser as I start the season in a slump:

> Yesterday:  0-3, -3.28 units
> Season:  4-8, -3.74 units
>   Reds -117 vs Cardinals (Intertops) -- A pretty cheap price with Cueto on the mound for the Reds, who are playing very well.

Now, adding:

   A's -1.5 runs +160 vs Mariners (Intertops) -- Significant pitching matchup advantage, and I think the all righthanded lineup should do well vs Happ (the A's pounded the other lefty starter, Detwiler, that they have seen thus far this year).

Posted Saturday, April 11, 2015 01:08 PM

SteveA's MLB April 10

Yesterday:  0-3, -3.28 units
Season:  4-8, -3.74 units

   Reds -117 vs Cardinals (Intertops) -- A pretty cheap price with Cueto on the mound for the Reds, who are playing very well.

Posted Thursday, April 09, 2015 10:29 AM

SteveA's MLB April 9

Yesterday:  2-3, -0.61 units
Season:  4-4, +0.54 units

   Twins +145 vs Tigers (Intertops) -- Gibson came on strong at the end of last year, worth a look at this number.   And I do expect the Twins to score eventually this season.

Posted Wednesday, April 08, 2015 10:22 AM

SteveA's MLB April 8

Yesterday:  1-0, +1.00 units
Season:  2-1, +1.15 units

   Tigers -1.5 runs +120 vs Twins (Intertops) -- Better lineup, better starting pitcher, at home.

   Cardinals -106 vs Cubs (Intertops) -- Like Chris Tillman, Lance Lynn is a pitcher who does not seem to be given his due by the betting line.

Posted Tuesday, April 07, 2015 06:53 PM

SteveA's MLB April 7

Yesterday:  1-1, +0.15 units
Season:  1-1, +0.15 units

   Orioles -110 bs Rays (Intertops) -  at risk of being called a homer but this Tampa ineup is so bad.

Posted Monday, April 06, 2015 02:45 PM

SteveA's MLB April 6

Preseason:  1-0, +1.00 units

   Orioles +115 vs Rays (Intertops) - the always underrated Chris Tillman against what looks to be a very feeble Ray offense

   Nationals -1.5 runs +135 vs Mets (Intertops)

Posted Saturday, April 04, 2015 03:31 PM

One preseason play

To warm up for the regular season, I'll make one preseason play:

   Diamondbacks -115 vs Cubs (Intertops) -- Diamondbacks, who open the season Monday, are fielding a pretty representative lineup, mostly their starters.   Cubs, who have to fly home after this game and play tomorrow, are starting a bunch of scrubs.   They even have a pitcher (Jason Hammel) in the lineup, leading off and playing right field!   And they also are choosing not to use a DH, so they have 2 pitchers in the batting order, while Arizona is choosing to use the DH (an option teams have in preseason games).   And certainly with a game tomorrow, the Cubs are not going to use any relievers that are going tomake their team, while the D'backs could.

Posted Saturday, January 24, 2015 11:58 AM

SteveA's College Hoops Jan 23

Thursday:  0-1, -1.10 units
Season:  55-70, -21.75 units

   Rutgers +7.5 vs Penn State (Intertops) -- Rutgers has hung this close to better Big 10 teams such as Maryland, and the list of teams Penn State has beaten by more than this number is pretty weak, and does not include Drexel, Duquesne, or Cornell.

   DePaul +14 vs Xavier (Intertops) -- Never would have made this bet three weeks ago, but looking at the recent play of these two teams I think the Blue Demons can hang close.

Posted Thursday, January 22, 2015 10:28 PM

SteveA's College Hoops Jan 22

Sunday:  0-2, -2.20 units
Tuesday:  0-1, -1.05 units
Wednesday:  1-0, +1.00 units
Season:  55-69, -20.65 units

   St Mary's +15 vs Gonzaga (Intertops)

Posted Sunday, January 18, 2015 04:02 PM

SteveA's College Hoops Jan 18

Yesterday:  3-5, -2.45 units
Season:  45-66, -18.40 units

A half point loss, and two one point losses yesterday.   And the slump continues.

   Loyola-Chicago +1 vs Southern Illinois (Intertops)

   Oregon +5 vs Washington (Intertops)

Posted Saturday, January 17, 2015 12:36 PM

SteveA's College Hoops Jan 17

Thursday:  2-1, +0.90 units
Season:  52-61, -15.95 units

   Dayton -14.5 vs St Louis (Intertops) -- possibly the best team in teh conference at home vs the worst

   Iowa -1.5 vs Ohio State (Intertops) -- better team, at home

   Buffalo -13 vs Miami (Ohio) (Intertops)

   Clemson +1.5 vs Syracuse (Intertops) -- Clemson is solid despite their 1-3 ACC record... look who they have played so far.   Syracuse just lost a good player, and wasn't playing that great even before them.   Their only two road wins were by 2 at Virginia Tech and 1 at Georgia Tech, neither team as good as Clemson.

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