SteveA's MLB May 20

Yesterday:  2-2, -0.07 units
Season:  95-111, -12.51 units

Someone remind me never to take a bad team as a -150 favorite.   That's something I NEVER do but somehow I did it yesterday and paid for it.

Just one tonight:

  Diamondbacks -107 vs Rockies (Intertops) -- as long as Corbin is pitching this well I have to go with the D'backs at close to even money.

SteveA's MLB May 19

Yesterday:  2-5, -3.06 units
Season:  93-109, -12.44 units

   Phillies +138 vs Reds (Intertops)

   Braves -1.5 runs +105 vs Dodgers (Intertops)

   Cubs -150 vs Mets (Intertops)

   White Sox +112 vs Angels (Intertops)

  

SteveA's MLB May 18

Yesterday:  2-3, -0.88 units
Season:  91-104, -9.38 units

   Cubs -129 vs Mets (Intertops) -- I'm still not a believer in Feldman, despite 4 straight quality starts.   But the Mets are a very bad team when Harvey isn't pitching... 9-21. 

   Indians -150 vs Mariners (Indians) -- Better overall team.   Check.   Home field advantage.   Check.   Better hitting.   Check.   Better starting pitcher.   Check.   Better bullpen.   Check.   LH/RH splits in Cleveland's favor.   Check.   Saunders being absolutely terrible on the road this year.   Check.  Can't find a single handicapping factor that would point to the Mariners.   I don't play very many favorites higher than -130 becuase of the random variance of the game of baseball, but when EVERYTHING I look at is in one team's favor I will certainly go to -150.  

   Phillies -106 vs Reds (Intertops) -- Kendrick having a great year, Philly finally starting to play fairly well.

   White Sox +119 vs Angels (Intertops) -- Angels continue to play horribly, Joe Blanton sucks, and Angels have poor numbers vs lefthanded pitching.

   Twins +112 vs Red Sox (Intertops) -- Taking a shot on a home dog here, Diamond has pitched fairly well (4 quality starts last 5 times out) and Red Sox hitting just .229 vs LHP this season.

   Cardinals -1.5 ... [More]

SteveA's MLB May 17

Yesterday:  1-2, -0.67 units
Season:  89-101, -8.50 units

   Mets -135 vs Cubs (Intertops)

SteveA's MLB May 5

Yesterday:  3-2, +1.27 units
Season:  64-80, -13.71 units

   Cardinals +104 vs Brewers (Intertops)

   White Sox +116 vs Royals (Intertops)

   Orioles +116 vs Angels (Intertops)

   Rockies -114 vs Rays (Intertops)

SteveA's MLB May 4

Yesterday:  1-7, -6.31 units
Season:  61-78, -14.98 units

Wow, awful day.   I really liked those plays too.  Baseball can be brutal.   Well, I was down about 19 units at one point last year and came back to finish the season almost even.   I will quit for hte season and wait for football if I go past -20.   But I'm not there yet.

   Twins +103 vs Indians (Intertops)

   Mariners +127 vs Blue Jays (Intertops)

SteveA's MLB May 3

Yesterday: 2-1, +0.78 units
Season:  60-71, -8.67 units

   Cubs -102 vs Reds (Intertops) -- Villanueva is having a fantastic season, and the Reds are 3-10 on the road. 

SteveA's MLB May 2

Yesterday:  2-0, +2.45 units
Season:  58-70, -9.38 units

   Royals -139 vs Rays (Intertops) -- My first gut reaction was that this line was too high to like KC.   But when I looked at the numbers, I saw that KC is the better hitting team, with the significantly better starting pitcher, the better bullpen, and at home.   When one team has each key component (starting pitching, hitting, bullpen, home field) in their favor, and there is no counterbalancing factor such as LH/RH splits or injuries, I will pretty much always go as high as -140 or -150.   Of course in most such circumstances the home team is a bigger favorite, which is why you don't see me making a lot of favorite plays.   But the line still is underestimating the Royals, as evidenced by teh +6.14 unit profit they have shown this year for bettors.

   Cubs -130 vs Padres (Intertops) -- Not quite as clearcut as KC, but Wood is having a heck of a season, with a quality start every time out.   The Cubs have scored 5 runs /gm at home while San Diego's poor offense is barely over 3 on the road.   Obviously the crap cub bullpen is a factor, but someone has to win this game between two last place teams and with the Padres being 5-10 on the road, I give the Cubs an dexcellent chance.

SteveA's MLB May 1

Yesterday:  1-1, -0.02 units
Season:  56-70, -11.83 units

   Giants +108 vs Diamondbacks (Intertops) -- Lincecum seems to be on the verge of regaining his form.  Certainly he's pitching better than McCarthy.   The two teams are pretty even offensively, and bullpen wise.   At worst this game is a tossup so I'll take the + money and hope that Lincecum is for real.

   Rockies +137 vs Dodgers (Intertops) -- Beckett, on the other hand, is a shell of his former self.   Nicasio has pitched well.   Rockies have the better offense, so far, by a pretty wide margin.   They are #1 in baseball in average and OPS vs righthanded pitching, and it's not just a Coors effect, they have hit well on the road as well.   Meanwhile, the Dodgers are pretty weak against righthanded pitching.

SteveA's MLB April 28

Yesterday:  1-1, -0.21 units
Season:  53-64, -8.36 units

   Mets +104 vs Phillies (Intertops) -- Phillies hitting just .212 vs lefties this year, 1-3 when the opponent starts a lefty.   Niese is a solid lefthanded starter.

   Game 1:  Indians/Royals under 8.5 -125 (Intertops)

  

SteveA's MLB April 27

Yesterday:  3-2, +1.32 units
Season:  52-63, -8.15 units

   Braves -121 vs Tigers (Intertops)

   Rays -116 vs White Sox (Intertops)

SteveA's MLB April 26

Yesterday:  2-4, -1.21 units
Season:  49-61, -9.47 units

   Braves +129 vs Tigers (Intertops) -- Can't pass up the best team in baseball as a pretty good sized underdog.

   Phillies +109 vs Mets (Intertops)

   Cardinals -1.5 runs +110 vs Pirates (Intertops)

   Orioles +116 vs A's (Intertops)

SteveA's MLB April 25

Yesterday:  1-2, -1.20 units
Season:  47-57, -8.32 units

   Royals +158 vs Tigers (Intertops)

SteveA's MLB April 22

Yestererday:  3-3, +0.45 units
Season:  40-50, -8.73 units

In a rush, heading out to the O's game... these are all from Intertops:

A's +122 vs Red Sox
Cardinals -112 vs Nationals
Rangers +103 vs Angels
Twins -120 vs Padres
Diamondbacks +109 vs Giants

GLTA

SteveA's MLB April 21

Yesterday:  2-1, +0.65 units
Season:  37-47, -9.18 units

   Yankees/Blue Jays over 8.5 -105 (Intertops) -- Yankees are hitting the ball very well, averaging over 5 runs per game this year, even more than that on the road, and are hitting righties much better than lefties.   Josh Johnson is off to a terrible start for Toronto.   Meanwhile, the Blue Jays really aren't hitting the way they should, but Ivan Nova is an average pitcher and the Yankee pen has a 4.68 ERA so I certainly don't see them being shut down here.

   Royals +145 vs Red Sox (Game 1) (Intertops) -- Just see some value here, Santana is pitching well,

   A's -110 vs Rays (Intertops) -- Rays have no offense.   A's have the better starter on the moun d, better bullpen, and they are playing well on the road so far this year.

SteveA's MLB April 20

Yesterday:  2-3, -1.37 units
Season:  35-46, -9.83 units

   Tigers/Angels over 9 -120 (Intertops) -- In addition to having two mediocre starting pitchers, we have two bullpens that are not performing well.   Only 3 Angel games all year have had fewer than 9 runs.  Only 6 of 16 Tiger games have, but 3 of those were when Justin Verlander started.

   Braves -135 vs Pirates (Intertops) -- Better hitting team.   Check.   Better starting pitcher.   Check.   Better bullpen...yes, Pittsburgh's is good, but Atlanta's is the best in baseball right now.   Check.   Add to that the fact that Pittsburgh is pathetic vs lefthanded pitching so far this year, hitting just .167.   They are 0-4 with 6 total runs in the 4 games that opponents have started a lefty.

   Rockies -116 vs Diamondbacks (Intertops) -- Riding the hot team here, and helped by the fact that the D'backs are just hitting .198 vs lefties this year.

SteveA's MLB April 19

Yesterday:  4-2, +2.70 units
Season:  33-43, -8.46 units

First of all, I played two early games and posted them via my phone because I wasn't home from work yet.   Unfortunately I hit the wrong key on the mobile app and posted them to the College Football Forum.   You can go to that forum and see my post and see that I made these plays before the game started:

   Cardinals -123 vs Phillies (Intertops)
   Yankees +113 vs Blue Jays (Intertops)

Anyway, now I'm adding:

   Mariners +1.5 runs -105 vs Rangers (Intertops) -- Rangers not hitting lefty pitching well so far this year, I believe Mariners at least keep it close.

   Rockies -123 vs Diamondbacks (Intertops) -- riding the hot team

SteveA's MLB April 18

Yesterday:   2-2, +0.13 units
Season:  29-41, -11.16 units

Taking two good pitchers as home underdogs, hoping for a split this afternoon and a small profit:

   Brewers +105 vs Giants (Intertops)

   Mariners +145 vs Tigers (Intertops)

SteveA's MLB April 19

Yesterday:  1-3, -1.72 units
Season:  27-39, -11.29 units

   Astros +160 vs A's (Intertops) -- Have to take a shot at this number with Bud Norris off to as good a start as he is.

SteveA's MLB April 16

Yesterday:  0-2, -2.15 units
Season:  26-36, -9.57 units

Slump continues...

   Caubs +116 vs Rangers (Intertops)

SteveA's MLB April 14

Yesterday:  2-3, -1.95 units
Season:  26-27, -0.84 units

   Rays +125 vs Red Sox (Intertops)

   White Sox / Indians over 8 -105 (Intertops)

   Cubs +104 vs Giants (Intertops)

   Astros/Angels over 8 -115 (INtertops)

   A's +110 vs TIgers (Intertops)

   Rockies/Padres over 8 -105 (Intertops)

SteveA's MLB April 13

Yesterday:  3-4, -0.34 units
Season:  24-24, +1.11 units

   Rays +113 vs Red Sox (Intertops)

Were there really NO MLB games available today?

At 6:28 PM ET, over a half hour before all 14 MLB Friday night games started, I logged on via my phone to the Survivor Contest Mobile App, and the only MLB games it would let me pick were Saturday games.

Were NONE of the 14 MLB night games available as Survivor picks?

I have a suspicion that the mobile app doesn't give you nearly as many choices as logging in via the web.  

SteveA's MLB April 10

Yesterday:  0-1, -1.00 units
Season:  16-19, -3.27 units

   Blue Jays +120 vs Tigers (Intertops)

   Rays +114 vs Rangers (Intertops)

SteveA's MLB April 9

Yesterday:  2-4, -2.62 units
Season:  16-18, -2.27 units

   Rockies +115 vs Giants (Intertops) -- Rockies off to a hot start, they have only been held under 4 once all year.   Giants have only scored more than 4 once all year.   One 5-inning stint isn't enough to convince me that Lincecum has turned around a multi-year decline.