SteveA's College Hoops Feb 7

Sunday:  1-0, +1.00 units
Season:  70-60, +4.05 units

   Maryland +8.5 vs Clemson (Intertops)

SteveA's Super Bowl Pick

Championship Games:  2-0, +2.00 units
Postseason:  5-2, +2.90 units

   Patriots -3 +100 vs Giants (Intertops) -- PUtting my faith in Bill Belichek with two weeks to prepare, and a lingering revenge factor from four years ago.   I have been on the Giants every single week since they beat Dallas, correctly picking up on the fact that their defense had gotten healthy and they were peaking just in time for theplayoffs.   But I am choosing this time to jump off the bandwagon.

Good luck everybody!

SteveA's Super Bowl Props

Championship game Props:  0-2, -2.15 units

All on Intertops:

   Longest scoring play of game is a touchdown (as opposed to a FG) -125:   I see two vulnerable secondaries, plus the Patriots set of receivers are geat at turning short passes into big gains.

   Neither team will make 3 consecutive scores +140 -- basically saying this game is not going to be a one sided blowout.

   There will be a successful 2 point coversion +370 -- I just like the odds here.  These teams both can put up some points and both have good kickers, so you can certainly wind up with some sort of 29-21 type score which would necessitate a 2PC in the 4th quarter, and both offenses are capable of converting them.   And there's been a successful 2PC in the past two Super Bowls.

   1st kickoff of the game is a touchback -180 -- the rule change this year of course makes it easier.   Gostkowski has a great leg and almost all his kickoffs against the Ravens in the AFCCG were touchbacks, and this game is in a climate controlled dome, ideal for kicking.   Tynes doesn't have quite as big a leg but if the Giants kick off I'm hoping the dome effect is enough.   I figure Tynes has about a 50% chance of a touchback, while Gostkowski inside is around 80%.   So that's a 65% chance, which is just enough to make this bet profitable longterm.

   Patriots win by 1... [More]

SteveA's College Hoops Feb 5

Yesterday:  4-3, +0.75 units
Season:  69-60, +3.05 units

   Siena +11.5 vs Fairfield (Intertops) -- Fairfield just isn't in the habit of winning by huge scores, except vs the very weakest opponents.   Siena is a decent middle-of-the-pack team in the MAAC.

Incorrect Scoring in NCAAB League Contest

I picked Washington -11 in the NCAAB League Contest tonight.

They won 69-41.

But in my contest standings, it was scored as a loss and not a win for me.

SteveA's College Hoops Feb 4

Thursday:  2-0, +2.00 units
Season:  65-57, +2.30 units

   Virginia/Florida State under 118.5 (Intertops) -- Between Virginia's slow paced offensive style, and FSU's extremely tough defense, this one might not break 100.   Both these teams hold the opponent to under 40% shooting on the season.

   Notre Dame +1.5 vs Marquette (Intertops) -- Irish are especially strong at home (11-1 record, 47% shooting at home).   Marquette is certainly playing well, but they lost their last two road games against real quality Big East opposition.

   Wisconsin +3.5 vs Ohio State (Intertops) -- Ohio State has lost ALL three of its road games vs good teams (Illinois, Indiana, and Kansas).

   Appalachian St +1 -105 vs College of Charleston (Intertops) -- CofC has lost 6 of 8 since losing point guard Stitt to a season ending injury.    Appy State has only lost two conference home games -- one was to Davidson, the top team in the conference, and the other was by just one point. They are a bit better than their record might indicate, as 4 of their past 5 losseas are by 4 points or less.

SteveA's College Hoops Feb 2

Yesterday:  4-0, +4.00 units
Season:  63-57, +0.30 units

   Valparaiso -2.5 vs Detroit (Intertops) -- I rate these teams fairly even, in fact Valpo beat them at Detroit, has a better conference record despite having played Butler, Cleveland State, and Youngstown, three of the better teams in the conference that Detroit has NOT played.   And Valpo is at home.

SteveA's College Hoops 1/30 [correct date for a change]

Ending my two day streak of getting hte date wrong in my subject heading.

Yesterday:  1-1, -0.10 units
Season:  59-56, -2.60 units

   Samford +4 vs College of Charleston (Intertops) -- CofC has lost 4 of 5, including all their road games, since losing their point guard Stitt to a season ending injury.   Now they are without Coach Cremins as well.   Samford is actually ahead of CofC in the conference standings, no reason to believe they should be a 4 point home dog.

SteveA's College Hoops 1/30

Yesterday:  3-1, +1.85 units
Season:  58-55, -2.50 units

   Notre Dame +8.5 vs UConn (Intertops)

SteveA's College Hoops 1/29

Thursday:  2-1, +0.90 units
Season:  55-54, -4.35 units

   Wofford +5 vs College of Charlestown (Intertops) -- CofC has really struggled since losing Stitt.  

   Georgetown +1 -115 at Pittsburgh (Intertops) -- Pitt is 1-7 in the Big East with the only win being home vs Providence.   Georgetown is the much better team.

SteveA's NFL Postseason Championship Games

Last week:  2-1, +1.00 units
Season:  3-2, +0.90 units

   Ravens +7 vs Patriots (Intertops)

   Giants +2 vs 49ers (Intertops) -- Giants have that look about them that Green Bay had last year, that hte GIants had when they won it a few years ago -- a team that gets healthy, and peaks at hte right time, in late December and carrying on through a run in the playoffs.  They've got too much on offense for San Francisco, and unlike the other game, while SF has the better defense, the gap is not that huge.  Now that key guys like Osi are healthy, the Giant defense on the field today is pretty darn good.   And any weaknesses it has are in the secondary, and I don't think the 49ers have the deep passing game to exploit it.

SteveA's College Hoops 1/20

Thursday:  0-1, -1.10 units
Season:  48-47, -3.65 units

   Maryland +10 vs Temple (Intertops) -- Maryland much improved since Howard came back and Len became eligible.  All season long, the only teams Temple has beaten by more than this # are Villanova, Central Michigan and Western Michigan.

SteveA's College Hoops 1/19

Yesterday:  2-1, +0.90 units
Season:  48-46, -2.55 units

   Washington PK vs California (Intertops)

SteveA's College Hoops 1/15

Yesterday:  3-1, +1.90 units
Season:  46-40, +2.05 units

Just a couple of quick bets and now I'm heading downtown for the Ravens game...

    Youngstown St +8.5 vs Butler (Intertops)
    Indiana +13.5 vs Ohio State (Intertops)

SteveA's Divisional Playoffs

Regular Season:  52-47, -0.40 units
Wild card playoffs:  1-1, -0.10 units

   49ers +3.5 -120 vs Saints (Intertops) -- Any time I get a premium NFL defense getting more than a field goal at home, I jump on it.

SteveA's College Hoops 1/14

Yesterday:  1-0, +1.00 units
Season:  43-39, +0.15 units

   Tennessee +10.5 vs Kentucky (Intertops) -- Tennessee playing tough recently, don't think that Kentucky is going to come into Knoxville and walk all over them.   Florida couldn't.

SteveA's College Hoops 1/13

Yesterday:  2-0, +2.00 units
Season:  42-39, -0.85 units

   Loyola +5.5 -105 vs Fairfield (Intertops) -- These teams are 2 and 2a in the MAAC after Iona, and Loyola hs been playing better recently.

SteveA's College Hoops 1/12

Monday:  0-2, -2.20 units
Season:  40-39, -2.85 units

   Arizona -5 vs Oregon State (Intertops)

   Oregon PK vs Arizona State (Intertops)

SteveA's College Hoops 1/8

Yesterday:  2-3, -1.30 units
Season:  38-37, -2.65 units

   Arizona +1.5 vs Southern Cal (Intertops)

   Maryland +11 vs NC State (Intertops) -- Terps are a much better team with Pe'Shown Howard back from his injury and the addition of 7 foot Ukrainian Alex Len, who only became eligible a few games ago. 

SteveA's Wild Card Playoffs

Regular season:  52-47, -0.40 units

   Giants -3 -105 vs Falcons (Intertops) -- Giants' finish the season on a strong note, as healthy as they have been all year, while Falcons have continually struggled on the road.

SteveA's College Hoops 1/7

Monday:  0-1, -1.10 units
Season:  36-34, -1.35 units

   Georgetown +3 vs West Virginia (Intertops)

SteveA's Post January 2 Bowls

Bowls so far:  8-6, +1.30 units

   Sugar Bowl:  Michigan/Virginia Tech over 50.5 (Intertops) -- Hokies have suffered a ton of defensive injuries this year that have allowed good offenses such as Clemson to put up a lot of points.   I expect Denard Robinson will be a lot for Virginia Tech to handle.   Meanwhile, with a strong armed QB, great RB, and veteran receiving corps, I expect the Hokies will be able to put up some points on a Michigan defense that has been up andd won this year.

SteveA's College Hoops 1/2

   George Mason -17 vs William & Mary (Intertops)

SteveA's NFL Week 17

Week 16:  2-5-1, -3.55 units
Season:  49-46, -2.30 units

Bad week last week probably dooms me to a losing regular season, unless I go 4-0 today...

   49ers/Rams under 34.5 (Intertops) -- Pathetic Ram offense will be lucky to score at all vs excellent San Fran defense.   San Fran runs the ball, they won't run it up, they'll do enough to win.   I see something like 20-6 here.

   Bears/Vikings under 41.5 -105 (Intertops) -- Let's see, no Cutler, no Forte, no Adrian Peterson, Minnesota has no QB to start with, no Knox.   There really aren't any offensive weapons left between these two teams. 

   Falcons -9.5 vs Buccaneers (Intertops) -- Even if they yank Ryan early, I think Atlanta can continue to put up points against Tampa's horrible defense.

   Giants -3 -115 vs Cowboys (Intertops) -- You have to go back to week 2, against San Francisco in overtime, to find Dallas beating a good team.   The rest of their wins have been vs Washington, St Louis, Seattle [before the Seahawks' strong finish], Buffalo [during the Bills poor 2nd half], Miami [by 1 point at home], and Tampa.   Their ONLY road wins have been vs weak Washington and Tampa teams.   Meanwhile, the Giants have beaten the likes of the Jets, the Cowboys on the road, the Patriots, and the Eagles.   They've blown some games vs weak teams, but historically Manning ha... [More]

SteveA's College Hoops 12/31

Yesterday:  2-2, -2.20 units
Season:  33-33, -3.25 units

   Yale +20 vs Florida (Intertops) -- Just a bit too high, especially given that Florida is just about 36 hours removed from a double overtime game 1300 miles away.