SteveA2009's Blog

Posted 14 hours ago

SteveA's MLB September 1

Yesterday:  4-2, +2.37 units
Season:  +10.01 units

   Mariners +130 vs A's (Intertops)

   Giants -137 vs Rockies (Intertops)

   Royals -1.5 runs +105 vs Rangers (Intertops)


Posted Sunday, August 31, 2014 04:05 PM

SteveA's MLB August 31

I posted these picks about 6 hours ago but mis-titled the thread with yesterday's date, so I'm reposting them to get them in the right titled thread:

Yesterday:  0-1, -1.00 units
Season:  +7.64 units

   Mets -115 vs Phillies (Intertops)

   Reds +122 vs Pirates (Intertops)

   Orioles -1.5 runs +115 vs Twins (Intertops)

   White Sox +102 vs Tigers (Intertops)


And now I'm adding:

   Padres +153 vs Dodgers (Intertops) -- Dodgers poor #s vs LHP, Padres' great home record, Ryu uncertain status coming off DL... all leads me to believe Padres havea  40%+ chance of winning here.



Posted Thursday, August 28, 2014 06:36 PM

SteveA's NFL Preseason Week 4

Last week:  1-3-1, -2.15 units
Preseason:  6-6, -0.50 units

   Dolphins PK -120 vs Rams (Intertops) -- Rams aren't going to risk new starting QB Shaun Hill for much more than a series, so they will essentially be down to their 3rd and 4th string QBs for the vast majority of this game.

   Patriots +3 -105 vs Giants (Intertops) -- Patriots have decided that Jimmy Garappolo is going to be their #2 QB and QB of the future, and they are going to let him go the whole game tonight.   Mallet won't even play as they don't want to risk injury that would damage his trade value.  I think to get a good look at Garappolo, the Patriots will play this game fairly straight.

   Redskins +3 -120 vs Buccaneers (Intertops) -- Kirk Cousins is having a great preseason and he will probably play the bulk of this game.   And the Redskins' #3 QB, Colt McCoy, has some NFL experience too.


Posted Thursday, August 28, 2014 06:22 PM

SteveA's MLB August 28

Yesterday:  0-1, -1.00 units
Season:  +9.18 units

   Mets +104 vs Dodgers (Intertops)


Posted Thursday, August 28, 2014 05:38 PM

SteveA's College Football Opening Weekend

   Washington State -7.5 vs Rutgers (Intertops) -- Leach has things on the upswing at Wazzu, while Rutgers is just plain bad.


Posted Wednesday, August 27, 2014 09:17 PM

SteveA's MLB August 27

Yesterday:  2-2, +0.10 units
Season:  +10.18 units

   Marlins +135 vs Angels (Intertops) -- Similar to Monday night's play on Miami.   Better starting pitcher, good underdog price, and facing a lefty, which they hit better than righties.


Posted Saturday, August 23, 2014 09:23 AM

SteveA's MLB August 23

Thursday:  0-1, -1.00 units
Friday:  2-2, -0.35 units
Season:  +11.77 units

   Rays +100 vs Blue Jays (Intertops)


Posted Thursday, August 21, 2014 07:31 AM

SteveA's MLB August 2

Yesterday:  1-3, -1.80 units
Season:  +12.12 units

   Astros +155 vs Yankees (Intertops)


Posted Tuesday, August 19, 2014 06:50 PM

SteveA's MLB August 19

Sunday:  3-0, +3.29 units
Monday:  1-0, +1.43 units
Season:  +11.96 units

   Braves +135 vs Pirates (Intertops) -- Better team, vs a team in a bad slump, at a nice price.

   Astros +157 vs Yankees (Intertops) -- line is just toop high.

   Angels -130 vs Red Sox (Intertops)

   Rays +114 vs Tigers (Intertops)


Posted Sunday, August 17, 2014 12:46 PM

SteveA's MLB August 17

Friday:  0-2, -2.00 units
Season:  +7.24 units

I actually made some bets yesterday but in my haste to head out the door I completely forgot to post them here so I can't count them in my record.   I went 1-2, -0.84 units.   Anyway, today:

   Mariners +105 vs Tigers (Intertops)

   Orioles +119 vs Indians (Intertops)

   Brewers +105 vs Dodgers (Intertops)


Posted Thursday, August 14, 2014 07:58 PM

SteveA's NFL Preseason Week 2

Week 1:  1-1-1, -1.10 units

   Jaguars +3 -115 vs Bears (Intertops)


Posted Monday, August 11, 2014 06:47 PM

SteveA's MLB August 11

Yesterday:  2-1, +1.50 units
Season:  +10.22 units

   Orioles -119 vs Yankees (Intertops) -- Honestly with the pitchers they are throwing out there and the holes in their lineup, I don't understand how the Yankees have hung above .500 this long.   But it has to come to an end, and the Orioles are red hot.   They haven't lost 2 games in a row since June, and their slumbering bats have awoken the last week or so.

   Pirates +102 vs Tigers (Intertops) -- Tigers bullpen is shredded with Soria going on the DL and the 19 inning game yesterday.  And they just aren't playing very well, nor has Verlander been his normal dominant self.   Pirates are at home, and right now they have the better pitcher on the mound.

   Mariners -1.5 runs +100 vs Blue Jays (Intertops)

  


Posted Sunday, August 10, 2014 02:01 PM

SteveA's MLB August 10

Yesterday:  1-2, -1.00 units
Season:  +8.72 nits

   Dodgers -150 vs Brewers (Intertops)

   Twins +150 vs A's (Intertops)


Posted Saturday, August 09, 2014 03:27 PM

SteveA's MLB August 9

Yesterday:  0-3, -3.30 units
Season:  +9.72 units

   Giants +133 vs Royals (Intertops)

   Diamondbacks -102 vs Rockies (Intertops)

   Angels -1.5 runs +110 vs Red Sox (Intertops)


Posted Friday, August 08, 2014 07:05 PM

SteveA's MLB August 8

Yesterday:  2-0, +2.31 units
Season:  +13.02 units

   Reds -130 vs Marlins (Intertops) -- Reds had a very rough first half but it appears to me they are starting to turn it on in a division that is still very much in reach.   Meanwhile, the Marlins seem to be on an opposite trajectory, their decent first half is behind them, and they are a poor road team.


Posted Thursday, August 07, 2014 01:17 AM

SteveA's NFL Preseason Week 1

I've been betting preseason NFL games for 13 years.  I've only had two losing preseasons in that time (but last year was the worst):

2001 23-17, +4.52 units
2002 27-20, +5.66 units
2003 27-23, +2.07 units
2004 15-14,  0.00 units
2005 17-13, +3.00 units
2006 11-10, +0.35 units
2007 15-10, +3.90 units
2008 16-7, +8.30 units
2009 12-10, +0.80 units
2010 6-7, -1.80 units
2011 7-6, +0.35 units
2012 15-8, +6.20 units
2013 9-12, -4.95 units
TOTAL:  200-157, +28.30 units

Let's see how I do in 2014.   My first plays:

   Indianapolis +3 -105 vs Jets (Intertops) -- Jets have lost all four preseason openers under Rex Ryan.

   Bengals +1.5 vs Chiefs (Intertops) -- Andy Reid is another coach who doesn't take preseason games, especially the opener, very seriously.


Posted Wednesday, August 06, 2014 10:22 AM

SteveA's MLB August 6

Yesterday:  1-2, -1.00 units
Season:  +10.61 units

   A's -1.5 runs +105 vs Rays (Intertops)

   Mariners +110 vs Braves (Intertops) -- Young is extremely tough at home.   He's an extreme fly ball pitcher which is perfect for spacious Safeco Park.


Posted Sunday, August 03, 2014 12:59 PM

SteveA's MLB August 3

Yesterday:  1-1, +0.04 units
Season:  214-234, +13.78 units

   Mets +113 vs Giants (Intertops) -- Giants playing pretty badly, and Bumgarner has given up 5+ runs in 5 of his last 7 starts.   Mets a bit stronger vs LH than vs RH, and an over .500 team at home.   Seems like a good spot for a home dog.

  


Posted Saturday, August 02, 2014 12:51 PM

SteveA's MLB August 1

Yesterday:  0-1, -1.00 units
Season:  213-233, +13.74 units

   Nationals -1.5 runs +115 vs Phillies (Intertops)

   Orioles -111 vs Mariners (Intertops)


Posted Wednesday, July 30, 2014 09:57 AM

SteveA's MLB July 30

Yesterday:  2-2, +0.73 units
Season:  210-232, +12.49 units

   Nationals/Marlins over 7.5 -105 (Intertops) -- Both teams average about 4 runs per game.   Nationals hit lefties very well.  


Posted Tuesday, July 29, 2014 06:41 PM

SteveA's MLB July 28

Yesterday:  3-1, +2.86 units
Season:  208-230, +11.76 units

   Continuing in the same vein as yesterday, picking + dogs who I think have a 50/50 chance of winning.   Win 2 of 4 and make a little $... yesterday I was fortunate to hit 3.

   White Sox +148 vs Tigers (Intertops) -- Quintana is a solid pitcher, Detroit isn't playing their best ball of hte year right now.   Line is just too high.

   Marlins +125 vs Nationals (Intertops) -- Marlins are red hot, Strasburg's road ERA is much higher than at home.

   Cardinals +103 vs Padres (Intertops) -- better overall team with a very good starting pitcher.

   Braves +133 vs Dodgers (Intertops) -- Beckett's first start off the DL last week was not very good, and Harang is having a very solid year for Atlanta.


Posted Sunday, July 27, 2014 01:22 PM

SteveA's MLB July 27

Yesterday:  1-2, -0.65 units
Season:  203-228, +7.40 units

   Tigers +107 vs Angels (Intertops)

   Orioles +100 vs Mariners (Intertops)

   Dodgers -123 vs Giants (Intertops)


Posted Saturday, July 26, 2014 03:52 PM

SteveA's MLB July 26

Yesterday:  1-3, -2.05 units
Season:  202-226, +8.05 units

Continue to take a beating since the All Star Break, when I was +22 units for the season.

   Orioles +101 vs Mariners (Intertops) -- Way better offense, comparable pitching.


Posted Wednesday, July 23, 2014 08:32 PM

SteveA's MLB July 23

Yesterday:  1-3, -1.75 units
Season:  201-219, +12.86 units

   Orioles +157 vs Angels (Intertops)


Posted Monday, July 21, 2014 06:56 PM

SteveA's MLB July 21

Yesterday:  2-3, -0.60 units
Season:  197-216, +11.25 units

   Giants +119 vs Phillies (Intertops) -- Yeah, Lee is the superior starting pitcher, but San Fran is better in every other sense.   Offense, bullpen, even their excellent road record which is better than Philly's home record.

   Nationals -145 vs Rockies (Intertops) -- Ugh, sometimes you have to go out of your comfort zone to bust out of a slump, and I'm in a pretty horrible slump.   I *HATE* road favorites.   But here we have the far better team, facing a Rockies team that is playing terrible baseball, with the significantly better starting pitcher, and also the Nats hit lefties well.   So I'm making a play I probably wouldn't consider if I hadn't dropped 11 units over the past 3 days.

   Orioles +125 vs Angels (Intertops)


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