SteveA2009's Blog

Posted 7 hours, 37 minutes ago

SteveA's MLB April 17

Yesterday:  5-1, +4.82 units
Season:  34-20, +14.83 units

   Braves -137 vs Phillies (Intertops) -- I know early season returns show Phillies are hitting lefties well, but I don't believe it will last.  Too many key middle of the order hitters bat left.   Wood is a quality lefty.  Burnett, meanwhile, is trying to pitch through a hernia that made him leave the last start early.  And if this game is close late, the Brave bullpen ERA is a full THREE runs lower than Philadephia's.

   Tigers -153 vs Indians (Intertops) -- Verlander appears to be back in career form after an off year last year.

   Mariners +111 vs Rangers (Intertops) -- Just fading Scheppers.


Posted Wednesday, April 16, 2014 10:30 AM

SteveA's MLB April 16

Yesterday:  2-0, +2.62 units
Season:   29-19, +11.01 units

   Mets +123 vs Diamondbacks (Intertops) -- Just can't see how a team that is 1-10 at home, with a pitcher on the mound who has given up 5, 6, and 6 runs in his 3 starts, is a favorite.   You can't tell me the Mets don't at least have near 50/50 shot at winning this game.


Posted Sunday, April 13, 2014 10:43 AM

SteveA's MLB April 13

Yesterday:  4-3, +1.16 units
Season:  25-18, +7.59 units

   Nationals -120 vs Braves (Intertops)

   White Sox -117 vs Indians (Intertops)

   A's -126 vs Mariners (Intertops)


Posted Saturday, April 12, 2014 01:03 PM

SteveA's MLB April 12

Yesterday:  3-2, +0.70 units
Season:  21-15, +6.43 units

   Red Sox +101 vs Yankees (Intertops)

   Rays -125 vs Reds (Intertops)


Posted Thursday, April 10, 2014 07:44 PM

SteveA's MLB April 10

Yesterday:  2-0, +2.60 units
Season:  17-13, +4.73 units

   Giants / Diamondbacks over 8 -115 (Intertops) -- Dbacks have scored 4+ in 7 of 11 games.   Giants have scored 4+ in 6 of 9 games.  Delgado has put up ERAs north of 4.20 both of the last two seasons and had a poor first start this year.   The D'back bullpen is also off to a bad start.  Vogelsong had an ERA over 5.73 last year and also fared poorly in his first start this year.   When your hits per inning shoots through the roof the year you turn 36, I wouldn't expect the next year to be very good.   It's true the Giant bullpen is looking good so far (though they just put longtime reliable lefty reliever Jeremy Affeldt on the DL), and of course it's a pitcher's park.   But most of the factors point to a higher scoring game.


Posted Wednesday, April 09, 2014 09:45 AM

SteveA's MLB April 9

Yesterday:  2-1, +1.15 units
Season:  15-13, +2.13 units

   Royals +110 vs Rays (Intertops)


Posted Tuesday, April 08, 2014 07:49 PM

SteveA's MLB April 8

Yesterday:  1-1, +0.25 units
Season:  13-12, +0.98 units

   Pirates -115 vs Cubs (Intertops)

   White Sox +133 vs Rockies (Intertops)

   Tigers -118 vs Dodgers (Intertops)


Posted Sunday, April 06, 2014 01:07 PM

SteveA's MLB April 6

Yesterday:  1-2, -0.62 units
Season;  11-8, +3.17 units

   Mets -108 vs Reds (Intertops) -- no faith in Alfredo Simon as a starter

   Marlins -116 vs Padres (Intertops) -- Marlins playing well, they are at home with the better pitcher on the mound.


Posted Saturday, April 05, 2014 01:33 PM

SteveA's MLB April 5

Yesterday:  0-2, -2.38 units
Season:  10-6, +3.79 units

   Cubs +107 vs Phillies (Intertops)


Posted Friday, April 04, 2014 07:54 AM

SteveA's MLB April 4

Yesterday:  4-1, +3.13 units
Season:  10-4, +6.22 units

   Orioles +150 vs Tigers (Intertops) -- Just looking for value, think this number is way too big.

   Cubs -138 vs Phillies (Intertops) -- I think the Phillies are going to be pretty bad this year, especially against lefthanded pitching.  Look at key middle of the order hitters Ryan Howard and Chase Utley.   Howard, even when he was good, was significantly worse vs LH pitching.   His career OPS is .996 vs RH and a meager .729 vs LH, and as he has declined with age things have gotten even worse:   in 2012 his OPS vs LH was .604 and last year it was .539!   That's pretty much the numbers a pitcher might put up at the plate!   Utley is another key hitter who bats from the left side and while his splits aren't as pronounced, he too is weaker vs lefties.   Third baseman Cody Asche is another lefty in the middle of the order with weaker numbers vs LH.   Jimmy Rollins is on paternity leave. 


Posted Thursday, April 03, 2014 09:48 AM

SteveA's MLB April 3

Yesterday:  0-1, -1.25 units
Season:  6-3, +3.04 units

   Cardinals +103 vs Reds (Intertops)

   White Sox / Twins over 7.5 -110 (Intertops)

   Giants +110 vs Diamondbacks (Intertops)


Posted Wednesday, April 02, 2014 09:48 AM

SteveA's MLB April 2

Yesterday:  1-2, -1.00 units
Season:  6-2, +4.29 units

   Brewers -125 vs Braves (Intertops) -- Harang is washed up and has looked awful this spring.


Posted Monday, March 31, 2014 10:00 AM

SteveA's MLB March 31

Yesterday:  1-0, +1.05 units
Season:  2-0, +2.05 units

   Phillies -101 vs Rangers (Intertops) -- Gotta go with a real major league starter over a converted reliever making his first start.   Ranger bullpen also looks pretty shake to me.   I won't be on the Phillies much early, I think they are going to be pretty bad, but this is an exception.

   Orioles +109 vs Red Sox (Intertops) -- In Lester's last 8 starts against Baltimore, the Orioles have won 7 times.   A good team as an Opening Day home underdog with their best pitcher on the mound.


Posted Sunday, March 30, 2014 06:37 PM

SteveA's MLB March 30

2014 Preseason:  2-0, +2.00 units
Regular season so far:  1-0, +1.00 units

   Padres +105 vs Dodgers (Intertops) -- Home dog with a good pitcher onthe mound, Ryu coming off a torn toenail.


Posted Friday, March 28, 2014 08:20 PM

Anybody notice...

That the pitcher is batting for Colorado tonight but Seattle has a DH in the lineup?   Never seen that before.

That's a definite edge to Seattle.

But Colorado has more vets/starters in the lineup.

Colo has Chatwood on the mound, coming off a very good year.   Seattle has a rookie who had a very good spring and who has earned the #5 spot in the rotation going, but who has never pitched above AA.

Lean to Colo as a +110 dog... but seeing the pitcher bat while Seattle has a DH makes me decide to take a pass.

I think I'll sit on my 2-0 exhibition season and wait for some real games.


Posted Wednesday, March 26, 2014 09:38 AM

SteveA's MLBX March 26

Preseason so far:  1-0, +1.00 units
MLB Regular Season so far:  1-0, +1.00 units

    Blue Jays -115 vs Yankees (Intertops) -- Jays are starting their A lineup, and have Opening Day starter R. A. Dickey on the mound (as the majority of teams that open on Monday, are starting their ace today, so they will be on 4 days rest Opening Day).   Yankees do not open until Tuesday, so they are starting a minor league pitcher.


Posted Saturday, March 22, 2014 09:57 PM

SteveA's MLB March 22 (March 23 in Australia)

Preseason:   1-0, +1.00 units

   Dodgers -118 vs Diamondbacks (Intertops) -- Dodgers are the better team with IMO the better pitcher on the mound, so this seems relatively low.   It's true Dbacks are the "home" team, and they do have the tactical advantage of batting last, but none of the other normal home field advantages (knowledge of playing field, not having to travel or sleep in strange hotel, fan support).


Posted Saturday, March 15, 2014 12:56 PM

SteveA's MLBX March 15

My first play of the preseason...

   I was going to post the lineups for this game to back up my pick but I came to the forum and saw that Hammr has already done so, and made most of the points I had planned to make.

   Orioles -130 vs Yankees (Intertops) -- Most of the Yankee team is in Panama, where the split squad is playing a 2 game exhibition series vs the Marlins to honor retired Yankee Mariano Rivera, who is from Panama.   The Yankee lineup for this game consists of Ichiro, Brian Roberts, and 7 minor leaguers / rookies.   They are starting a pitcher who is not projected to make their team.   The Orioles have mostly regulars or potential regulars, with the exception of catcher, and Oriole ace Chris Tillman is on the mound.


Posted Thursday, March 13, 2014 09:26 AM

SteveA's College Hoops March 13

Yesterday:  1-1, -0.10 units
Season:  105-110, -17.20 units

   UNLV -8 -115 vs Wyoming (Intertops) -- Wyoming has been a shell of a team since star player Larry Nance Jr tore up his knee and was lost for a year, I think they will go out of the MWC tournament without much of a fight.   UNLV, playing on their home court, gets their leading scorer back from a suspension and gets another starter back from a concussion and they are at full strength.

   Wake Forest +8.5 vs Pittsburgh (Intertops) -- Pitt just doesn't blow people out, even when they win.   Just one win by more than this number since January 21.   They did not play well down the stretch, and Wake is essentially a home team in this one in Greensboro.


Posted Saturday, March 08, 2014 11:58 AM

SteveA's College Hoops March 8

Thursday:  0-1, -1.10 units
Friday:  0-1, -1.10 units
Season:  102-104, -14.70 units

   Iona -9 vs Rider (Intertops)


Posted Monday, March 03, 2014 06:52 PM

SteveA's College Hoops March 3

Yesterday:  0-1, -1.15 units
Season:  100-100, -10.10 units

   North Carolina -11.5 vs Notre Dame (Intertops)


Posted Sunday, March 02, 2014 01:08 PM

SteveA's College Hoops March 2

Yesterday:  3-5, -2.50 units
Season:  100-99, -8.95 units

   Quinnipiac -2 vs Marist (Intertops)


Posted Saturday, March 01, 2014 10:59 AM

SteveA's College Hoops March 1

Thursday:  1-1, -0.10 units
Friday:  1-0, +1.00 units
Season:  97-94, -6.45 units

   UMass +2.5 vs Dayton (Intertops) -- The better team, IMO.


Posted Thursday, February 27, 2014 08:05 PM

SteveA's College Hoops Feb 27

Yesterday:  3-0, +3.00 units
Season:  95-93, -7.35 units

   IPFW -1 vs Western Illinois (Intertops)

   UTEP -2.5 vs Tulsa (Intertops)

  



Posted Sunday, February 23, 2014 04:31 PM

SteveA's College Hoops Feb 23

Yesterday:  5-4, +0.55 units
Season:  89-92, -12.25 units

  Florida St +9 -105 vs Pittsburgh (Intertops)

   Providence +1.5 -105 vs Butler (Intertops)


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