SteveA2009's Blog

Posted 15 hours, 19 minutes ago

SteveA's MLB August 30

Yesterday: 0-1, -1.00 units
Season: 262-277, +16.96 units

  A's +175 vs Astros (Intertops) - Graveman pitching very well right now

   Royals +127 vs Yankees (Intertops) - the hottest team in baseball with an incredible ho.e record at this price?


Posted Monday, August 29, 2016 08:34 PM

SteveA's MLB August 29

Yesterday: 4-1, +3.77 units
Season: 261-276, +17.96 units

   Reds +157 vs Angels (Intertops) - line just way too high for a bad team like LAA to be favored.  And Straily is a pretty good starting pitcher.


Posted Saturday, August 27, 2016 11:36 AM

SteveA's MLB August 27

Yesterday: 3-3, +0.78 units
Season: 257-273, +16.19 units

Ten straight winning days, definitely my best stretch of the season.

   Orioles +100 vs Yankees (Intertops)


Posted Friday, August 26, 2016 06:57 PM

SteveA's MLB August 26

Yesterday: 1-0, +1.00 units
Season: 254-270, +15.41 units

   Twins / Blue Jays over 10 -105 (Intertops)

   Royals +145 vs Red Sox (Intertops)

   Rangers +138 vs Indians (Intertops)

   Mariners +133 vs White Sox (Intertops)

   Brewers +120 vs Pirates (Intertops)

   Reds +130 vs Diamondbacks (Intertops)


Posted Thursday, August 25, 2016 04:56 PM

SteveA's MLB August 25

Yesterday: 4-2, +3.32 units
Season: 253-270, +14.41 units

   Rangers -153 vs Indians (Intertops) - Josh Tomlin seems to have hit a wall, he's really been knocked around lately.  Cole Hamels is Cole Hamels.


Posted Thursday, August 25, 2016 04:09 PM

SteveA's NFL Preseason Week 3

Week 2:. 3-1, +1.90 units
Season:  6-3, +2.85 units

   Falcons +1.5 vs Dolphins (Intertops) - Falcons have simply looked like the better team, and this neutral site game in Orlando is not a home game for the Dolphins


Posted Wednesday, August 24, 2016 11:01 AM

SteveA's MLB August 24

Yesterday:  2-1, +1.13 units
Season:  244-269, +11.09 units

7 straight winning days, my longest such streak of the season.

   A's +130 vs Indians (Intertops) -- Graveman has been tough at home all year and has looked very strong recently.

   Yankees +102 vs Mariners (Intertops)


Posted Tuesday, August 23, 2016 06:39 PM

SteveA's MLB August 23

Yesterday: 1-0, +1.00 units
Season: 247-268, +9.96 units

   Royals +104 vs Marlins (Intertops) - red hot team

   Reds +110 vs Rangers (Intertops) - red hot starting pitcher, home underdog

   Twins +105 vs Tigers (Intertops) - home underdog vs a pitcher who has been terrible all year


Posted Monday, August 22, 2016 09:29 PM

SteveA's MLB August 22

Yesterday:  1-1, +0.57 units
Season:  246-268, +8.96 units

   Yankees / Mariners over 8 -105 (Intertops) -- Yeah, it's Safeco, but the average game there this year has 8.6 runs.   Yankees average 4.15 runs per game, but they've averaged over 5 in August since inserting a bunch of young prospects in their lineup.   Mariners score 4.57 runs per game at home.   Pineda's ERA is 4.89, but it's over 5 on the road.  Statistically the Yankee bullpen seems OK with a 3.52 ERA.   But of course the departed Chapman and Miller helped compile a lot of those stats, and also even with those guys the Yankee pen has put up an ERA over 4 on the road all season.   Seattle pen has an average at best 3.75 ERA.   Seattle starter is a bit of a mystery, a journeyman who is nearly 27 and has mostly pitched out of the bullpen.   In his brief major league career he has a 6.40 ERA, and has totalled just 10 innings in his 3 major league starts.   So I see teams that should average over 8 rpg even in Safeco, and nothing in the pitching, either starting or relief, to believe that the teams should fall short of their average. 


Posted Sunday, August 21, 2016 12:39 PM

SteveA's MLB August 21

Yesterday:. 3-0, +3.76 units
Season: 245-267, +8.39 units

   Reds +135 vs Dodgers (Intertops) - Reds play .500 ball at home and are playing well of late.  Dodgers a sub .500 team on the road.  DeSclafani has established himself as a solid ML starter, Urias isn't there yet.  Have to believe Reds have a 45% chance or better to win here.

   Brewers +157 vs Mariners (Intertops) - line is just too high.  Garza has had five straight decent starts and kept his team in the game.  Brewers hit lefties well.




Posted Friday, August 19, 2016 05:11 PM

SteveA's MLB August 19

Yesterday: 2-3, +0.04 units
Season: 240-266, +3.63 units

   Rangers -135 vs Rays (Intertops)

   Tigers +116 vs Red Sox (Intertops)

   Royals -145 vs Twins (Intertops)


Posted Sunday, August 14, 2016 01:04 PM

SteveA's MLB August 14

Yesterday:  0-2 -2.00 units
Season:  233-255, +6.10 units

   Rays +100 vs Yankees (Intertops) -- Odorizzi is clearly the superior starting pitcher in this matchup, I'll take the Rays at even money or better.


Posted Saturday, August 13, 2016 12:27 PM

SteveA's MLB August 13

Yesterday:  0-1, -1.00 units
Season:  233-253, +8.10 units

   Pirates +130 vs Dodgers (Intertops) -- primarily looking at the starting pitching edge here.  McCarthy is being babied averaging under 5 innings per start as he recovers from Tommy John surgery.

   Diamondbacks / Red Sox over 10.5 +100 (Intertops) -- average game at Fenway Park has 10.75 runs.   Dbacks are an above average offense (that gets to add a DH).   Both starting pitchers are significantly worse than average, and the Arizona bullpen is awful.

  


Posted Friday, August 12, 2016 06:42 PM

SteveA's MLB August 12

Yesterday: 0-1, -1.15 units
Season:. 233-252, +9.10 units

   Diamondbacks +1.5 runs +115 vs Red Sox (Intertops)


Posted Thursday, August 11, 2016 06:16 PM

SteveA's MLB August 11

Yesterday: 3-4, +0.53 units
Season: 233-251, +10.15 units

   Yankees / Red Sox over 9 -115 (Intertops)


Posted Wednesday, August 10, 2016 09:04 PM

SteveA's NFL Preseason Week 1

Last year:  7-5, +1.75 units

I usually make a small profit in the preseason, though it's harder to find games than it used to be.   I think my 12 games played last year was an all time low.

First play this year:

   Saints +3 +100 vs Patriots (Intertops)


Posted Wednesday, August 10, 2016 10:49 AM

SteveA's MLB August 10

Yesterday:  2-2, +0.95 units
Season:  230-245, +9.62 units

   Giants +103 vs Marlins (Intertops) -- Samardzija pitching well, while Miami is giving a spot start to reliever David Phelps, who only went 4 innings in his other start back in April .  And Stanton is out of the Marlin lineup.

   Phillies + 185 vs Dodgers (Intertops) -- Hellickson is giving the Phillies quality starts and keeping them in games, I have to think they have better than a 35% chance to win here which is the breakeven point for +185.

   Indians +115 vs Nationals (Intertops) 


Posted Monday, August 08, 2016 06:52 PM

SteveA's MLB August 8

Yesterday: 2-1, +1.39 units
Season: 225-241, +7.37 units

   Rays +140 vs Blue Jays (Intertops) - line just a bit too high given how well Odorizzi is pitching.  +140 was my minimum cutoff and it just made it.

    Giants +133 vs Nationals (Intertops) - can't pass up Cueto at this #

    Cardinals/Reds over 8.5 -115 (Intertops) - two pretty good hitting teams, one bad starter and one mediocre, two bad bullpens.

   Rangers -108 vs Rockies (Intertops)

   Tigers +105 vs Mariners (Intertops) - Fulmer still not getting the line respect he deserves.


Posted Sunday, August 07, 2016 01:05 PM

SteveA's MLB August 7

Yesterday:  2-0, +2.56 units
Season:  223-241, +5.98

   Royals +138 vs Blue Jays (Intertops) -- Royals are a much better team at home than on the road.

   Brewers +101 vs Diamondbacks (Intertops)-- Better team with better pitcher on the mound.   And I don't give the D'backs much credit for home field advantage given their crappy home record over the course of this season.

   Dodgers +101 vs Red Sox (Intertops)


Posted Saturday, August 06, 2016 01:13 PM

SteveA's MLB August 5

Yeterday:  0-5, -5.00 units
Season:  221-241, +3.42 units

   Rangers +126 vs Astros (Intertops)

   Royals +130 vs Blue Jays (Intertops)


Posted Friday, August 05, 2016 06:54 PM

SteveA's MLB August 5

Wednesday: 0-2, -2.04 units
Thursday: 1-2, -0.74 units
Season: 221-236, +8.42 units

   Reds +136 vs Pirates (Intertops) - Reds playing better baseball right now and DeSclafani is their best starter

   Indians +108 vs Yankees (Intertops) - better team, better starting pitcher

   Giants +146 vs Nationals (Intertops) - Gio Gonzalez hasn't pitched well enough to merit being this big a favorite vs a good (albeit scuffling) Giant team

   Rangers +165 vs Astros (Intertops) - same comment as above, substitute Keuchel for Gonzalez

   Braves +200 vs Cardinals (Intertops) - Cardinals are playing mediocre baseball but getting lines as if they were a premium team


Posted Wednesday, August 03, 2016 06:56 PM

SteveA's MLB August 3

Yesterday: 4-1, +3.91 units
Season: 220-232, +11.20 units

   Mets -104 vs Yankees (Intertops) - better team, better starting   pitcher.  Added NLs leading HR hitter to the lineup while the Yankees traded away a ton of talent.  Home field means something but not that much.  Hard to understand why the Yankees are favored.


Posted Tuesday, August 02, 2016 07:00 PM

SteveA's MLB August 2

Yesterday:. 0-1, -1.00 units
Season: 216-232, +7.29 units

   Orioles +128 vs Rangers (Intertops) - best home record in the majors as a significant underdog.  Dylan Bundy may only go 5 due to pitch count / inning issues but he's really good and backed by a good bullpen.

   White Sox +135 vs Tigers (Intertops) - hate to go against a team as hot as Detroit but a good number considering the Sox have the better pitcher on the mound.

   Reds +140 vs Cardinals (Intertops) - a big home underdog with a solid starter on the mound, the kind of situation I look for.  Cards scuffling a but, they just can't get hot enough to inject themselves into the race.

   Rockies +125 vs Dodgers (Intertops) - another home dog with a solid starting pitcher.


Posted Sunday, July 31, 2016 12:58 PM

SteveA's MLB July 31

Yesterday:  3-3, -0.10 units
Season:  214-228, +9.19 units

   Orioles +157 vs Blue Jays (Intertops) -- There are about 15-20 top pitchers in baseball that I will bet on at this kind of number regardless of opponent, and Tillman has worked his way into that group this year.   Orioles are 18-4 in his starts, I have to believe they have a 40% chance to win with him on the mound today.

   Cardinals -117 vs Marlins (Intertops) -- Carlos Martinez has allowed 3 runs or less in 10 straight starts, with a 1.82 ERA over that stretch that dates back to Memorial Day.   Cardinals have a good road record.

  
  


Posted Saturday, July 30, 2016 01:51 PM

SteveA's MLB July 30

Yesterday:  3-5, -1.27 units
Season:  211-225, +9.29 units

   Nationals/Giants over 9 -105 (Intertops) -- Nats average 4.61 runs per game and do better on the road.   Giants average 4.41 runs per game but score 4.81 at home.   So just with average pitching you would expect 9+ runs here.   Peavy has an ERA over 5, and even at home it's 4.61, and has not pitched that well recently.   So not even average there, and San Fran has one of the worst bullpens in baseball.   So SF pitching is definitely worse than average.   Nat starter is a rookie who was hammered in his on ML start, so not much to go on.   But certainly no indication he will be better than average.   And the Nats pen has a 3.86 ERA, wore than the NL average, and has struggled lately.   So at best maybe the Nats have average pitching.   It would take 8 or less to lose this bet, and you have two teams that typically total a bit over 9, worse than average pitching on one side, and AT BEST average pitching on the other side.   Seems like a strong play to me.

   Yankees +114 vs Blue Jays (Intertops) -- Better team.  Better offense.  Home field advantage?   Nah, Yankees have a better road record than TB has at home.   Starting pitching -- I give a slight edge to the Yankees, but you could call it about even and I wouldn't argue with you to... [More]

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