SteveA's MLB May 27

Yesterday:  3-3, -0.16 units
Season:  124-121, +4.47 units

   Giants/Marlins over 7.5 -110 (Intertops) -- The linemakers have still not caught onto the fact that this ballpark appears to be a hitter's haven.   Marlin home games have averaged 9.95 runs, while their road games have avearaged 6.48 runs!   That is a huge difference.   Yeah, a couple of solid pitchers on the mound today, but until the line adjusts to this ballpark I have to make this play.

SteveA's MLB May 26

Yesterday:  2-5, -3.00 units
Season:  121-118, +4.63 units

   Tigers/Twins over 8.5 -110 (Intertops) -- Would not have played this earlier in the year, when the Twins were scoring 3.38 runs per game over their first 31 games.   But the last 14 games, the bats have awakened, and they are scoring 5.28 rpg over that span.  Scherzer has pitched to a poor 1.58 WHIP, and 1.70 on the road.   The Tiger bullpen is horrendous (6.05 ERA), and the opponent has averaged 5.89 runs per game in Scherzer's starts.  In their last 8 starts vs RH pitching, the Twins have scored 6, 8, 9, 4, 5, 11, 4, 11.
So you can clearly make a case for 5 or 6 Minnesota runs today.   Meanwhile, the Tigers average over 4 runs per game,  and are better vs righthanded pitching than lefthanded pitching.   The opponent has scored 4+ runs in 7 of 9 Pavano starts this year. 

   Nationals -118 vs Braves (Intertops) -- Many handicapping factors point to the Braves here (home field, Nats poor vs lefthanded pitching).   But the starting pitching mismatch is SO HUGE here that I believe the Nats are still the play as a relatively small favorite.

   Indians +148 vs White Sox (Intertops) -- I did not expect Derek Lowe to have the year he is having, coming back to the AL at age 37.  B ut he is having this year, and it's hard to believe you can get him at +148 when the Indians are 12-7 o... [More]

SteveA's MLB May 23

Yesterday:  1-0, +1.33 units
Season:  121-115, +7.63 units

   Pirates/Cubs under 7 -105 (Intertops) -- The average game at PNC Park this year has had an amazingly low 5.86 runs per game.   Today they have one of the weakest hitting opponents they could have, other than an intrasquad game, coming in to play in the Cubs.   And an excellent pitcher on the mound for Chicago in Dempster.  Only 4 games all year in this ballpark have gone over 7 runs, out of 23.

   Marlins/Giants over 7 -110 (Intertops) -- It is beginning to eppear that the new ballpark in South Florida is hitter friendly, with an average of 9.9 runs per game (compared to under 7 in Marlin road games!!!)   Meanwhile, the opponent has AVERAGED 5.8 runs per game in Tim Lincecum's starts this year.    Neither bullpen is great (WHIPs of 1.38 & 1.40), and both pens are a bit stressed after the 3-touchdown game last night.   Yes, maybe Josh Johnson's last two starts are a sign he is turning it around, but I still think over is the solid play here.

SteveA's MLB May 22

Yesterday:  4-3 +1.59 units
Season:  116-110, +9.92 units

   Orioles +117 vs Red Sox (Intertops) -- Orioles are playing better, and at home, with the statistically better pitcher.

   Giants +120 vs Brewers (Intertops) -- Zito is having a big rebound year, and the Brewers have been pretty soft vs LH starters (scored an average of 3.45 rpg in games the opponents started a lefty, and only scored more than 3 runs in 4 of those 11 games).

SteveA's MLB May 20

Yesterday:  1-1, -0.04 units
Season:  106-102, +4.57 units

   Reds +165 vs Yankees (Intertops) -- Simply can't pass up Cueto at this kind of number.

   Pirates +157 vs Tigers (Intertops) -- Scherzer has been absolutely horrible, once again this number is just too high to resist.

SteveA's MLB May 19

Yesterday:  4-2, +2.32 units
Season:  105-101, +4.61 units

I played 3 4pm games a couple hours ago and COMPLETELY forgot to post them here.   Games are 10 or 15 minutes underway so I won't count them as part of my covers record, but FWIW they were:
   Giants -122
   Pirates/Tigers under 8 -120
   Mariners/Rockies over 9 +110

I'll be back a bit later with night games, assuming I remember to post them this time.

SteveA's MLB May 16

Yesterday:  1-3, -2.08 units
Season:  98-99, -0.92 units

Today's theme is "slight underdogs who actually have the better overall record and better starting pitcher":

   Mets +107 vs Reds (Intertops)

   Orioles +108 vs Royals (Intertops)

   Diamondbacks +106 vs Rockies (Intertops)

SteveA's MLB May 15

Yesterday:  1-1-3, -2.07 units
Season:  93-93, +0.10 units

   Padres/Nationals over 6 -115 (Intertops)

   Indians -130 vs Twins (Intertops)

   Cubs/Cardinals over 8 -115 (Intertops)

   White Sox -124 vs Tigers (Intertops)

   Mariners +160 vs Red Sox (Intertops)

SteveA's MLB May 9

Yesterday:  0-2-1, -2.00 units
Season:  81-71, +12.95 units

A streak of 6 straight winning days comes to an end.

   Reds +101 vs Brewers (Intertops) -- Brewers lineup, already weakned by sickness and injury, is also likely without Ryan Braun today.   And it's always nice to get Cueto at + money.

SteveA's MLB May 8

Yesterday:  4-0, +4.18 units
Season:  81-69, +14.94 units

   Indians/White Sox over 8 -105 (Intertops)

   Rays +124 vs Yankees (Intertops) -- Can't pass up Shields at +124.

   Reds +108 vs Brewers (Intertops) -- Reds playing better baseball right now, have better bullpen, and Gallardo has not been his usual self for much of this season.

Off to Oriole Park... couldn't get the +100 or better I wanted to pull the trigger on my Orioles but I'll still be rooting for a win.

SteveA's MLB May 6

Yesterday:  4-2, +2.20 units
Season:  74-63, +7.38 units

   Orioles +138 vs Red Sox (Intertops) -- Orioles are playing great, Boston's bad bullpen has been overworked, and Buchholz has allowed 5+ runs every time he's taken the mound this year.   How can you possibly believe Baltimore doesn't have at least a 43% chance of winning this game?

SteveA's MLB May 5

Yesterday:  4-1, +3.49 units
Season:  70-62, +5.18 units

Heading out to the Nationals game, once again no time for much writeup.   These are all on Intertops:

   Orioles/Red Sox over 9.5 +100 -- bullpens tired after last night

   Mets -140 vs Diamondbacks

   White Sox +120 vs Tigers
 
   Braves/Rockies over 10 -115 -- average game at Coors this year > 12, Braves good hitting team and very strong vs LH

   Padres +106 vs Marlins -- look at Miami's pathetic hitting #s vs lefthanded pitching

   Blue Jays +143 vs Angels

SteveA's MLB May 4

Yesterday:  2-1, +1.00 units
Season:  66-61, +1.69 units

A bit rushed today as I head out for a poker game, not time to do much in the way of writeups.   These are all from Intertops:

   Diamondbacks -114 vs Mets

   Orioles +138 vs Red Sox
  
   Cardinals -1.5 runs +100 vs Astros
 
   Blue Jays +111 vs Angels
 
   Brewers -105 vs Giants

SteveA

SteveA's MLB May 3

Yesterday:  4-3, +1.52 units
Season:  64-63, +0.69 units

   Rays -1.5 runs +105 vs Mariners (Intertops)

   Marlins -113 vs Giants (Intertops)

SteveA's MLB May

Yesterday:  0-4, -4.72 units
Season:  60-60, -0.83 units

Man, it never ceases to amaze me how streaky betting baseball can be.   Two days ago I was sailing along, +7 units for the season.  

   Astros -139 vs Mets (Intertops)

   Dodgers -1.5 runs -105 vs Rockies (Intertops)

SteveA's MLB April 29

Yesterday:  2-3, -1.26 units
Season:  58-52, +5.87 units

Just 3 games today, and I have to head out the door early so no time for any analysis:

   Mariners +135 vs Blue Jays (Intertops)

   Yankees -1.5 runs +105 vs Tigers (Intertops)

   Rays +112 vs Rangers (Intertops)

SteveA

SteveA's MLB April 28

Yesterday:  4-0, +5.39 units
Season:  56-49, +7.13 units

   Cardinals -150 vs Brewers (Intertops) -- Lohse has been lights out all year, Cardinals are 5-2 at home.  I've been a Lohse skeptic, but at this point he's been too darn good. 

   Indians +126 vs Angels (Intertops) -- Angels are 2-8 on the road.   Haren is not having a dominant season.   Jeanmarr Gomez has pitched very well so far this year.   So why are the Indians this big a huome dog?

SteveA's MLB April 27

Yesterday:  0-1, -1.05 units
Season:  52-49, +1.74 units

   Seattle +165 vs Toronto (Intertops) -- Yes, Romero is a proven good starter and I believe in the long run Toronto is certainly the superior hitting team.   But this kid Beaven has been good in every start this year, and the Toronto offense went ice cold this week while Seattle's offense is on its first extended hot streak of the year and the Mariners have won 5 straight.   Also worth noting that the Seattle bullpen has been significantly better, giving them an edge in a close game late.   Put all that together and there has to be some value in a +165 line.

   Arizona +120 vs Miami (Intertops) -- Joe Saunders may be pitching over his head, but my fellow Virginia Tech alum is having a great year.   And Miami has pathetic numbers vs lefties (.185 batting average for the year, .222 onbase percentage), so there's no reason to think Saunders can't keep it up.  Zambrano can be very inconsistent, and the D'backs hit righties better than lefties.   Miami has lost 5 straight, and sored only 6 runs in those games; perhaps coming home will be the tonic for them, but I still think the Diamondbacks have a good shot here.

SteveA's MLB April 25

Yesterday:  3-2-1, +0.85 units
Season:  52-48, +2.79 units

   Rays/Angels over 8.5 -105 (Intertops) -- Williams is a journeyman 5th starter at best.   Moore has a ton of potential but has not pitched that great this year.   Average game at Trop Dome has had 9+ runs scored in it.   Both these teams have pretty bad bullpens.

SteveA's MLB April 24

Yesterday:  2-3, -1.05 units
Season:  49-46, +1.94 units

   Astros +1.5 runs -130 vs Brewers (Intertops) -- Both starters have had quality starts every time out, so it's reasonable to expect a close, relatively low scoring game.   Taking the runline out of deference to what I believe is Milwaukee's superior offense (though Houston has actually matched them run for run this year).

   Phillies/Diamondbacks under 8 -115 (Intertops)

SteveA's MLB April 23

Yesterday:  3-1, +1.75 units
Season:  46-43, +1.99 units

   Braves/Dodgers over 7.5 +100 (Intertops) -- only game that I liked tonight, though I came close to a Toronto play (-101 was best available, I would have done it for anything better than +100).   Braves average 5.69 runs per game and they are better statistically vs lefties than vs righties.   Obviously Dodger Stadium has an effect to help pitchers, but Capuano is probably the weakest Dodger starter.  Meanwhile, the Dodgers average over 4 runs per game, even more at home, and Jurrjenns is really struggling this year (as many predicted he would because last year, although his results were pretty good, his peripheral stats declined significantly, usually a warning that a pitcher might be losing it). 

SteveA's MLB April 22

Yesterday:  4-4, -0.17 units
Season:  43-42, +0.24 units

   Cardinals/Pirates under 7 -110 (Intertops) -- Two pitchers having excellent years, a cool damp day in a pitcher's park, a pathetic Pirate offense that scores fewer than 3 runs per game, a Cardinal lineup that is a shell of its former self without Pujols & Berkman.

   Dodgers -125 vs Astros (Intertops) -- Way better hitting team, and although Wandy Rodriguez is a good pitcher, Billinngsley is better.  And Dodgers really hit lefthanded pitching hard.

   Blue Jays -110 vs Royals (Intertops) -- Royals have lost 9 straight and are winless at home.   Blue Jays are 4-1 on this road trip.   Blue Jays have their best starter on the mound, a guy who ahs put up 13, 14, and 15 win seasons the past 3 years with ERAs of 4.30, 3.73, and 2.92, and WHIPs of 1.29 and 1.14 the past two seasons.   And two good starts in a row after a rough opening day start.   I was surprised to find this line so low.   Yes, Duffy has made two good starts, but this kid had an ERA over 5 last year.   Going with the hot team here.

SteveA's MLB April 21

Yesterday:  3-2, +0.45 units
Season:  39-38, +0.41 units

   Reds -127 vs Cubs (Intertops) -- Better team, way better starting pitcher.  And Reds have hit lefties very hard this year.

   Rangers -107 vs Tigers (Intertops) (Game 1) -- Matt Harrison has been lights out so far this year.

SteveA's MLB April 20

Yesterday:  3-2-1, +0.77 units
Season:  36-36, -0.04 units

   Cardinals/Pirates under 8 -120 (Intertops) -- Pirate offense is pathetic, and young Lance Lynn has two solid starts so far vs better offenses.   Yes, St Louis can score, but Berkman is now on the DL, and Morton had his best season ever last year and is off to a decent start this year.   PNC park is favorable to pitchers, and both bullpens have fantastic stats so far, with ERAs in the low 3s and WHIPs around 1.10.  

SteveA's MLB April 19

Yesterday:  3-3, +0.28 units
Season:  33-34, -0.81 units

   Reds/Cardinals over 7.5 -115 (Intertops)

   Orioles/White Sox under 8 -115 (Intertops)