SteveA2009's Blog

SteveA's Super Bowl Props

By SteveA2009 | View all Posts
Posted Sunday, February 05, 2012 04:47 PM   1 comment
Championship game Props:  0-2, -2.15 units

All on Intertops:

   Longest scoring play of game is a touchdown (as opposed to a FG) -125:   I see two vulnerable secondaries, plus the Patriots set of receivers are geat at turning short passes into big gains.

   Neither team will make 3 consecutive scores +140 -- basically saying this game is not going to be a one sided blowout.

   There will be a successful 2 point coversion +370 -- I just like the odds here.  These teams both can put up some points and both have good kickers, so you can certainly wind up with some sort of 29-21 type score which would necessitate a 2PC in the 4th quarter, and both offenses are capable of converting them.   And there's been a successful 2PC in the past two Super Bowls.

   1st kickoff of the game is a touchback -180 -- the rule change this year of course makes it easier.   Gostkowski has a great leg and almost all his kickoffs against the Ravens in the AFCCG were touchbacks, and this game is in a climate controlled dome, ideal for kicking.   Tynes doesn't have quite as big a leg but if the Giants kick off I'm hoping the dome effect is enough.   I figure Tynes has about a 50% chance of a touchback, while Gostkowski inside is around 80%.   So that's a 65% chance, which is just enough to make this bet profitable longterm.

   Patriots win by 1 to 6 points +335
   Patriots win by 7 to 12 points +350
        I like the Patriots to win but don't expect a blowout.   Basically I'm wagering 2 units to net either 2.35 or 2.50 units that I am correct.   I also am playing the Patriots on teh pointspread, and this gives me a bit of an insurance there; if the Patriots win by 1 or 2 points I lose my main pointspread bet but recoup it here.
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SteveA2009 says:
02/05/12 10:32PM
Recap:  TOTAL DISASTER

0-6, -7.05 units

(If Brady completes the Hail Mary on the last play, I would have been just -0.30 units for the day).

That makes my season take on prop bets:

0-8, -9.20 units
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