SteveA2009's Blog
Posted Saturday, January 30, 2010 11:59 AM
Thursday: 1-2, -1.20 units
Season: 69-81, -18.70 units
George Mason -8 vs James Madison (SIA)
Posted Thursday, January 28, 2010 07:19 PM
Yesterday: 1-3-1, -2.30 units
Season: 68-79, -17.50 units
Getting dangerously close to my quit-for-the-season point of 20 units.
Arizona -6 vs Stanford (Intertops) -- Stanford is a horrible road team.
Northern Colorado -5.5 vs Montana (Intertops)
Eastern Kentucky +2 vs Austin Peay (Intertops)
Posted Wednesday, January 27, 2010 06:59 PM
Yesterday: 1-1. -0.10 units
Season: 67-76, -15.20 units
George Mason -11 vs Delaware (Intertops)
Vanderbilt +6.5 vs Tennessee (Diamond Sports)
Posted Tuesday, January 26, 2010 06:59 PM
Yesterday: 1-0, +1.00 units
Season: 66-75, -15.10 units
Maryland -8.5 vs Miami (Intertops)
Posted Monday, January 25, 2010 06:58 PM
Yesterday: 1-1-1, -0.50 units
Season: 65-75, -16.10 units
Syracuse -5.5 vs Georgetown (Intertops)
Posted Sunday, January 24, 2010 01:59 PM
2009 NFL Preseason: 12-10, +0.80 units
2009 Regular Season: 65-53, +6.55 units
Postseason so far: 4-2, +1.70 units
Jets/Indianapolis under 40 (Intertops) -- Indy scored 17 and 20 in their games vs Baltimore, and the Jets have a better defense than Baltimore. They only time all year they put up a lot of points vs a good defense was vs New England, when they got into a shootout and had to keep scoring. Sanchez is not capable of getting into that type of shootout with Manning, nor could it happen because the Jets will run the ball as much as possible and the game will have far fewer possessions. The Jets haven't given up more than 14 points in the past 8 games. So I don't see Indy getting much over 20 here. Meanwhile, the Jet offense simply isn't all that great. Before the line came out, I knew that if it was 7 or less I would like Indy, if it was 10 or more I would like the Jets. Anywhere in that 7.5 to 9.5 range was no man's land and that's where the line has been (though it has crept up to 9 on SIA). So I feel the best play on this game is the total. I expect Indy to score 17 to 23 points, and the Jets to score 10 to 17 points.
Saints -3.5 vs Vikings (Intertops) -- If you take away the "Favre homecoming" game at Green Bay, the Vikings have been absolutely terrible on the road this year. Their only road wins were vs the dregs of the league (Det, SL, Cle)....
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Posted Sunday, January 24, 2010 12:00 PM
Yesterday: 6-8, -2.75 units
Season: 64-73, -15.00 units
Georgia Tech +5 vs Florida State (Intertops)
Posted Saturday, January 23, 2010 09:27 AM
Thursday: 1-0, +1.00 units
Season: 58-65, -12.25 units
Mississippi St +1 vs Alabama (SIA)
Vanderbilt -12.5 vs Auburn (Intertops) -- Vandy very, very strong at home. Auburn is overmatched here.
Virginia Tech -6.5 vs Boston College (Intertops)
Posted Thursday, January 21, 2010 07:01 PM
Yesterday: 2-2, -0.20 units
Season: 57-65, -13.25 units
Indiana +10 -105 vs Penn State (Intertops)
Posted Wednesday, January 20, 2010 07:28 PM
Yesterday: 0-2, -2.20 units
Season: 55-62, -13.05 units
Creighton +6.5 vs Illinois State (Intertops) -- Two pretty even teams, home court isn't worth this much. The Blue Jays have had a ton of fairly close losses.
Marshall +12.5 vs West Virginia (Intertops) -- Marshall always has a chip on their shoulder when they face the bigger instate school, and this year they have the talent to back it up. Off to a 15-2 start, only UNC has beaten them by more than this. WVU is a great team, but have lost 3 of 5 and are in a nasty sandwich situation here between a huge conference game vs Syracuse that came down to the final seconds, and the anticipated visit of Ohio State to Morgantown Saturday.
Oklahoma State -10 vs Colorado (Intertops) -- Way better team, at home, and OSU is always tough at home.
Colorado State +6 vs UNLV (Intertops) -- CSU is undefeated at home this year.
Posted Tuesday, January 19, 2010 07:21 PM
Sunday: 0-1, -1.10 units
Season: 55-60, -10.85 units
Illinois +4.5 vs Purdue (Intertops) -- Illinois hasn't lost at home all year. They've only lost one game by more than 4 points all year (@Michigan State). Purdue is struggling right now.
Posted Sunday, January 17, 2010 12:12 PM
Yesteday: 10-4, +5.60 units
Season: 55-59, -9.75 units
I certainly needed a day like yesterday....I was going to quit for the season if I reached -20 units on the year, now at least I'm back in the game for a while.
UConn -1 vs Michigan (Intertops) -- Once again breaking my rule on avoiding road favorites (although I feel it applies more in conference games anyway). I broke it once yesterday with Gonzaga and got away with it. Anyway, Michigan has not beaten a top 100 team all year. They have lost at home to the likes of Boston College and Northwestern, and blown out ont he road at Utah -- all teams inferior to UConn.
Posted Saturday, January 16, 2010 04:20 PM
2009 Regular Season: 65-53, +6.55 units
Wild Card Weekend: 2-1, +0.85 units
Cardinals/Saints over 56.5 (Intertops)
Ravens +6.5 -115 vs Indianapolis (Intertops)
Posted Saturday, January 16, 2010 11:58 AM
Thursday: 3-3, -0.25 units
Season: 45-55, -15.35 units
Pittsburgh +1.5 vs Louisville (Intertops) -- I have no idea why PIttsburgh isn't favored here. Maybe it's a trap, but my feeling is you can't always spend your life avoiding games that look too good.
Syracuse +5.5 vs West Virginia (Intertops)
Posted Thursday, January 14, 2010 07:31 PM
Yesterday: 2-2, -0.15 units
Season: 42-52, -15.10 units
Eastern Kentucky -9.5 vs Eastern Illinois (Intertops)
Posted Wednesday, January 13, 2010 06:59 PM
Yesterday: 0-2, -2.20 units
Season: 40-51, -14.95 units
Duke -15.5 vs BC (Diamond Sports) -- Duke beat Clemson, a far better team than BC, at home by more than this. BC lost at Clemson by 16. BC is a lower echelon ACC team this year.
Posted Tuesday, January 12, 2010 07:11 PM
Sunday: 1-3, -2.30 units
Season: 40-49, -12.75 units
Season has taken a drastic turn for the worse since Christmas...
TCU -5.5 vs Wyoming (Intertops) -- Better team, at home.
Illinois -8.5 vs Penn State (Diamond Sports)
Posted Sunday, January 10, 2010 02:50 PM
If I were to throw out the game vs Seattle, looking at the Ducks/Beavers game tonight, I owuld probably make Oregon about a 6 or 7 point favorite, as I believe they are the slightly better team at home, and since their opening game no one had beaten Oregon St by more than 6 points. So OSU+8 looks like a reasonable play.
But I can't get past that last game. Losing by 50?!?!? points to Seattle? Seattle? A team around 180 or 200 in the power rankings? It's one thing to drop a game to a team like that, I am usually more than willing to throw away one bad game when I'm capping a team, every team has them. A mid-to-low level Pac 10 team is probably going to drop a game like that once in a while.
But I just can't wrap my head arounda 50 point loss to a team like Seattle. I checked the box score and it appears all OSU's regular players appeared, no one missed the game for any reason.
I can't put money on a team coming off a game like that until I understand a bit more about what happened. Are their deeper problems here? Team dissension? How in teh world does a Pac 10 team, even a bad one, have a game like that?
Posted Sunday, January 10, 2010 12:18 PM
Yesterday: 2-7, -5.70 units
Season: 39-45, -10.45 units
For your fading pleasure:
Northwestern +8 vs Michigan (Intertops)
Kansas -4.5 vs Tennessee (Intertops)
Florida State +4 vs Maryland (Intertops) -- Seminoles have shown they can win on the road in the ACC, at GT. Terps haven't beaten a top 100 team this year, losing to every one they have faced.
Posted Saturday, January 09, 2010 02:15 PM
2009 NFL Preseason: 12-10, +0.80 units
2009 NFL Regular Season Sides and Totals: 65-53, +6.55 units
2009 NFL Regular Season Teasers: 4-11, -4.43 units
Jets +3 vs Bengals (SIA) -- Best defense in the league getting a field goal or more is a great formula inthe playoffs. Especially against a Bengal team that has finished poorly, only getting wins over KC, Cleveland, and Detroit in the last 7 weeks.
Posted Saturday, January 09, 2010 01:59 PM
Best team in the conference, on the road at the worst team in the conference.
No injuries for WCU listed anywhere I can find.
Georgia Southern is 1-12 against Division 1 opposition this year, beatig only Troy by 3 points. And ALL 12 LOSSES have been by 8 points or more.
There's no way the line should be only 7.5. Anyone have more info? Too late for me, I already pulled the trigger on this one, but that line seems way out of whack.
Posted Saturday, January 09, 2010 12:00 PM
NCState -2.5 vs Virginia (Diamond Sports)
Florida +6 vs Vanderbilt (Intertops)
Posted Wednesday, January 06, 2010 07:01 PM
Charlotte +13.5 vs Tennessee (Diamond Sports)
Posted Tuesday, January 05, 2010 06:59 PM
Yesterday: 1-0, +1.00 units
Seasn: 36-36, -3.55 units
Rhode Island +1.5 vs Akron (DSI) -- Both schools off to a great start, but URI's start is better, vs a tougher schedule. They have beaten better teams than Akron, even on the road, while Akron hasn't beaten anyone better than Rhode Island [at least if you go by the Pomeroy rankings].
Texas -14 vs Arkansas (Intertops) -- Way too low. Razorbacks are terrible this year. They lost by 20+ to Baylor in Little Rock and Texas is way better than Baylor.
Posted Sunday, January 03, 2010 01:44 PM
Yesterday: 2-2, -0.20 units
Season: 33-33, -3.25 units
Penn State +5 vs Wisconsin (Intertops) -- PSU alwasy tough at home, and only one team all year has beaten them by more than 5. This is Wisconsin's 2nd game all year on an opponent's home court, in the first they lost at Wisconsin-Green Bay.
Missouri State +7.5 vs Northern Iowa (Intertops) -- Pretty much an automatic play for me, a very strong 11-1 team getting this many points.