Stuckey's Blog

Some week 1 matchups I'm interested in

By Stuckey | View all Posts
Posted Tuesday, August 04, 2009 08:04 AM   15 comments
Unders are tough the first week, but how will Tech/Bama get to 40?

Thinking NC State comes out and throttles SC.

I think Navy can hang around.  Looking for anything north of 18.5 here.

Illy with revenge should roll.

Cal the same.

Nevada/Notre Dame has shatter job written all over it.  Why is Notre Dame laying 17 here?  Seems artificially high....which means they win by 30+

Gut feeling that Washington sticks around and has a shot to pull a shocker.  2 td's looks good/ML worth a shot

Would love for Utah to throttle State so I can hit Sjsu (coming off their USC annihilation) as juicy home dog in week 2.  Utes will be coming off a big home opening win against an in state rival with a huge game at Georgia on deck.

Ok State should beat Uga by double digits.

And, I'm hoping for Bama to be in an absolute war.  It will take big nuts, but then I think you fade them week 2 at home against FIU.  I know, I said it will take big nuts.  National coming out party for Hilton.


Thoughts?
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chef702 says:
08/04/09 11:23PM
LSU at night is "lights out".

UW may hang close the first half only if the offense can keep up, but the Tigres blow it open in the 2nd half. 38-17. I will take the over.

Ice4Blood says:
08/05/09 12:23AM

i think you're on the right track with this game... but if you break it down a little more along these lines, the outcome of the game should come up the same every time...

when you have 1 team that can score every possible which way, and another team that is trying to pound pound pound and keep up in a track shoot by running the ball... team B usually runs into a problem...

fail to score one time, and your gameplan goes to shit...

this will be the case in this game... OSU will continue to score no matter what UGA does offensively... and in the 2nd half, any adjustment that leads to a stop (or turnover, even) will be the deathknell for Georgia...

having UGA on your ticket in this game guarantees you will never be feeling very comfortable...

bracks says:
08/05/09 12:49AM
But see Ice, you are quick to say OSu can "Always" keep the pass going, why will you say that piss poor D that Okie St is bringing will "always" stop the run?

 

How many yrs in a row have we just seen the "we don't rebuild, we just reload" motto at UGA in the RB ?

 

Im sorry, I just can talk myself into any bet. Uga or Okie ST, over or under

Ice4Blood says:
08/05/09 02:14AM
no Bracks... that is exactly what i did NOT say...

 

i didn't say OSU will "always" stop the run... not at all... point is, they don't need to... they only need to stop it ONCE...

 

think of it this way... if OSU is down by 14 at any point prior to the last 10 minutes, they can still win the game... if UGA is down by 14 points... probably at ANY time in this game... it's over!

Ice4Blood says:
08/05/09 02:15AM
nobody wants to listen, but that's ok... we'll have a nice long discussion after the first week's games are in the books...
bracks says:
08/05/09 02:30AM
`OK, and then if they are down, why would they give up the run? Okis can't stop it. 14pts, no prob. Only once wouldn't work. A team that pass happy, you can deflect a couple of passes plenty of times, or they might just miss.

 

Again, I would rather not bet on any game(not really) than pick soemthing in this one. You can tell me that You have 30 Units on Okie and I would not think its a bad bet.

 

Again though, I could make a case for so many better games.

 

This is one that Vegas just has to make a line on. They will get even action, just not from me.

CoachMike007 says:
08/05/09 03:02AM
Come on, Ice4Blood, the comment on Okie ST only having to stop them ONCE was just off, dude,I'm  not bein a jerk, but

Nobody plays D like the SEC

Not sayin' Okie St won't win or cover, both these teams will get some stops.

Okie scores some points, but not at will !

A close game, 17-14 -ish, until Dez  literally runs away with it in the 2nd half due to defensive fatigue on a misdirection play....that sounds about right...and UGA can do the same exact thing the next series

I loved OK St last week but I think I just talked myself into takin the SEC OOC Dog....
No play for me, but I will probably take the 2nd half over
TBallgame says:
08/05/09 05:30AM
Time change is just one of the reasons I love the Bears here.  REVENGE will be huge here, after LY ass kicking from Terps, Cal will be ready.  Best & Co. will run all day against the weak Md. RD, w/only 2 starters back on front 7.  17 or less I'm ON IT!!   Nd/NV huge over as everyone else sees, so will the books, see something over 68 hung.  NCST is also a pick, but never trust the "Old Ball Coach".  10 or less and my biggest bet will be on a rd chalk, Mn.  Weber & Decker will roll this sorry Cuse bunch IMO.  BOL to all!!
nostradamus12 says:
08/05/09 11:43AM
VT/Alabama should only go over if special teams and defensive TDs which VT has a habit of doing over the years such as both matchups vs BC last year, still went under at 8-5 clip although this year they actually may have WRs playing
eyedog says:
08/05/09 11:46AM
Agree on LSU, are you kidding -14. That line is going up.

 

I will take Georgia, Oregon, and South Carolina all day getting points, and would not be surprised if two win outright.

jmw59 says:
08/05/09 11:59AM
It will go up and Miles can't coach.

 

No way I'm taking the Tigers.  LSU remains a stay away for me

jp1lsu says:
08/05/09 12:08PM

I'm with you on this.  I love dogs and dog ML's but the first two weeks really lend themselves to the fav's.  I had this argument with a friend of mine last year who insists that regardless of the time of year fav's and dogs split closer to 50/50 than anything else.

After week 1 last year I broke down the results to prove my point and it went something like this:

Of the 32 games invlolving a spread (1a vs 1a):

Teams giving more than 30 points went 2-1 ats

Teams giving 25-29 went 3-0 ats

Teams giving 12-24 points went 14-2 ats (one losing outright)

Teams giving less than 12 points went   4-7 ats (with all 7 teams losing SU)

Week two posted similiar numbers.  Either a team covered the spread or lost outright in all but 2 or so games. 

Early season games have been chalk eating feasts for some time, and of course that could all change this year.  However what I have learned about early season betting is that not only is chalk good, the biggger the chalk the better.

I like those highly rated teams with a veteran QB who are coming off a good year in weeks on and two.  Then comes the Saturday when teams started getting exposed as frauds.                        

eyedog says:
08/05/09 02:31PM
My bad I forgot, Vegas wins all the "headliner" games.

 

And if I could get down on LSU at -14 right now I would. It will not be 14 at kickoff.

bracks says:
08/05/09 02:51PM
eyedog-

 

Don't you think tha Vegas spends more time on those games and why would you want to go head to head on those when you have much better games that aren't in the spotlight? Its week 1

eyedog says:
08/05/09 03:34PM

I believe I've already stated I think at least two of those dogs { Georgia, Oregon, South Carolina } can win outright.

Just because it's a big game we shouldn't look at them ?

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User: Stuckey
Joined: February 2007
Location: Pennsylvania
Team: Baltimore Ravens
Occupation: Accounting/Finance

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